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Intraday Market Notes & Observations
Oil (USO) breaks first line of support; Amazon (AMZN) continues to notch record highs despite worker strikes over Prime Day
July 16, 2018

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2793.4/2803.7
DTX 1035.7/1063.3
DJIA 24980/25060
Nasdaq 7805/7839
RUT 1674.4/1688.4
VIX 12.25/12.95 (VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.75 - 0.95 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +64/-92 (bull/bear seesaw)

S&P rallying back over 2800; Russell 2000 showing signs of exhaustion
July 13, 2018

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2791.7/2808.3
DTX 1047/1059
DJIA 24890/25050
Nasdaq 7803.3/7846.7
RUT 1686.6/1697.4
VIX 12.05/12.95 (falling VIX is bullish and VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 1.1 - 1.5 (bearish to contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +70/-88 (bull/bear seesaw)

Tech names (MSFT, AMZN, FB) push tech etfs (XLK, FDN, SKYY) and Nasdaq to record highs
July 12, 2018

1:35 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2781.5/2798.5
DTX 1041.5/1056.5
DJIA 24800/24960
Nasdaq 7747/7821
RUT 1679.3/1692.7
VIX 12.45/13.35 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.6 - 0.8 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +123/-36 (bullish)

Corn (CORN), Soybean (SOYB), Grains (GRU) hit record lows; Oil/gas producers/services (XOP, XES) sell-off; Yen (FXY) fails major support; Turkey (TUR), Shippers (SEA) fall to multi-year lows
July 11, 2018

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2772/2786
DTX 1039.5/1061.5
DJIA 24685/24815
Nasdaq 7698/7752
RUT 1679/1696
VIX 13.1/13.95 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 1.05 - 1.5 (bearish/contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +85/-108 (mildly to moderately bearish but buyers haven't been completely dissuaded; selling in oil/gas producers (as indicated yesterday), semis (SMH, SOXX), and transports)

Corn (CORN) slumps to another record low; Oil/gas producers/services (XOP, XES) showing signs of exhaustion
July 10, 2018

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2784.4/2795.6
DTX 1051.9/1072.1
DJIA 24805/24945
Nasdaq 7728/7777
RUT 1689.5/1708.5
VIX 12.35/13.45 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.75 - 0.95 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +58/-118 (mildly to moderately bearish)

REITs (VNQ, IYR), Utes (XLU) getting slammed; Global markets rebound lead by Russia (RSX), China (FXI), Emerging Markets (VWO, EEM); Financials (XLF), Industrials (XLI) lead US sector rebound; Facebook (FB) hits another record high
July 9, 2018

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2768.5/2785.1
DTX 1050.6/1075.4
DJIA 24520/24870
Nasdaq 7702/7748
RUT 1694.7/1703.4
VIX 12.4/13.2 (falling VIX is bullish and VIX under 15 means bulls are in control)
Trin range: 0.7 - 0.95 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +94/-75 (major rotation out of utes and REITs and into Oil/gas explorers, aero & defense (PPA), auto parts (XLY))

*** Happy 4th of July! ***

July 3, 2018 The Stock Market Cook Book will be on vacation for the rest of the week. See y'all back on Monday, July 9th. Have a safe and happy holiday!


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Junk bonds (HYG, JNK) plunge; REITs (VNQ, IYR) reverse sharply to the downside; Shippers (SEA), Frontier Markets (FM) sink to new lows; N. Zealand $ ($NZD) jumps to new high while Aussie $ (FXA) slides to new low
July 2, 2018

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2699/2721
DTX 1029.2/1046
DJIA 24075/24275
Nasdaq 7443/7527
RUT 1631/1645.6
VIX 16.5/18 (jumping VIX is bearish and VIX over 15 means bears are in control)
Trin range: 1.05 - 1.55 (bearish/contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +137/-68 (moderately bullish but bears are still hanging around; buying in aero & defense (PPA) and software; major selling in REITs)

Precious metals (GLD, SLV), Biotech, Energy (KOL, URA, FAN) rebound along with US & Global Markets; Utilities (XLU) top resistance; Shipping (SEA), Argentina (ARGT) continue to sink; Bitcoin (GBTC) breaches another support level
June 29, 2018

1:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2726.7/2743.3
DTX 1028.2/1046.8
DJIA 24250/24510
Nasdaq 7526/7574
RUT 1645/1656
VIX 14.4/15.9 (falling VIX is bullish but VIX over 15 means bears are in control)
Trin range: 0.6 - 1.1 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +77/-82 (bull/bear tug of war; buying in aero & defense (PPA), Biotech, REITs, soft drink makers; selling in apparel, auto parts (because of tariff wars), internet/software)

Oil (USO), N. Zealand $ ($NZD) rise to new highs; India (IFN), Germany (EWG), Poland (EPOL), Wind Energy (FAN) blow to new lows
June 28, 2018

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2692/2718
DTX 1014.3/1031.5
DJIA 24000/24250
Nasdaq 7420/7504
RUT 1630/1645
VIX 17.4/19.0 (rising VIX is bearish; VIX over 15 means bears are in control)
Trin range: 0.6 - 0.8 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +177/-45 (very bullish; rotation out of auto parts (MGA, LEA ALV) & Restaurants (RRGB, SBUX, CMG, YUM) and into Internet/Software)

Bears start their summer picnic as Biotech (IBB, BBH), Semis (SOXX), Banks (KRE, KBE), Social Media (SOCL) break support; Global markets continue to sell-off with Emerging & Frontier Markets (VWO, FM) getting hit the hardest; Bonds take a surprising jump
June 27, 2018

2:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2706/2746
DTX 1041.2/1054.8
DJIA 24130/24570
Nasdaq 7478.9/7610
RUT 1650.5/1671.5
VIX 14.75/18.15 (rising VIX is bearish; VIX over 15 means bears are in control)
Trin range: 0.7 - 0.9 (bullish !!)
Average VWAPs: +41/-262 (extremely bearish/contrarian)

Shipping (SEA) sinks to multi-year low; Chinese Yuan (CYB), Bitcoin (GBTC) slump below support; REITs (VNQ) continue to rise
June 26, 2018

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2715.6/2734.4
DTX 1042/1055
DJIA 24240/24380
Nasdaq 7527/7613
RUT 1656.1/1673.9
VIX 14.85/17.15 (falling VIX is bullish but VIX over 15 means bears are in control)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.15 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +134/-46 (bullish)

Volatility jumps; Tech heads lower as Apple (AAPL) violates support; Uranium (URA), Coal (KOL), China (CHN) break down
June 25, 2018

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2702.1/2742.9
DTX 1049.1/1075.1
DJIA 24090/24465
Nasdaq 7460/7640
RUT 1645.2/1684.8
VIX 14.9/19.6 (jumping VIX is very bearish)
Trin range: 0.95 - 1.25 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +83/-129 (bearish; rotation out of tech, biotech and into aero & defense and utilities)

Oil (USO) pops; Consumer Discretionary (XLY) rallies; Cyber-security (HACK) falls under first line of support
June 22, 2018

1:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2754.6/2764.6
DTX 1079.5/1092.5
DJIA 24525/24675
Nasdaq 7670/7740
RUT 1685.6/1696.4
VIX 13.1/14.1 (falling VIX is bullish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.1 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +101/-93 (bull/bear battle)

Transports, Nasdaq testing support; Timber (CUT), China (FXI), Malaysia (EWM) tumble
June 21, 2018

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2748/2773.4
DTX 1075.7/1091.3
DJIA 24450/24660
Nasdaq 7697/7803
RUT 1685/1710
VIX 13.2/14.6 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is still overall bullish)
Trin range: 0.75 - 0.95 (falling Trin is bullish (!))
Average VWAPs: +84/-96 (bull/bear battle)

Record highs in FANG (NFLX, FB, GOOGL, AMZN) help push Internet/Social Media/Tech funds (FND, PNQI, SKYY) along with Nasdaq and Russell to record highs; Biotech (XBI, FBT), Retail (XRT), Consumer Discretionary (XLY) also breaking out to historic highs; Starbucks (SBUX) plunges below major support
June 20, 2018

1:45 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2764/2778
DTX 1080.8/1094.3
DJIA 24610/24790
Nasdaq 7756/7822
RUT 1694/1712
VIX 12.2/13 (falling VIX is bullish)
Trin range: 0.95 - 1.4 (rising Trin is bearish but Trin near 1.5 is contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +113/-72 (bulls with the edge but bears haven't left the party)

Global markets sell-off hard esp. Emerging & Frontier Markets (EEM, FM), China (FXI); USD (UUP) breaks out as Aussie $ (FXA), Loonie (FXC), Brit pound (FXB) break down; Corn (CORN), Soybeans (SOYB) drop to record lows; Aero & Defense (PPA) falls below first line of support
June 19, 2018

1:35 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2743.2/2766.8
DTX 1077.3/1102.7
DJIA 24565/24785
Nasdaq 7636/7720
RUT 1672.7/1693.9
VIX 13.3/14.5 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is overall bullish)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.2 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +105/-63 (bulls with the edge; selling pressure in aerospace & defense)

Facebook (FB) hits record high; Water (PIO), Shipping (SEA) sink; Emerging markets (EEM, PXH), Thailand (THD) break down
June 18, 2018

1:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2757.1/2776.9
DTX 1095.4/1110.6
DJIA 24825/25015
Nasdaq 7677/7766
RUT 1674.4/1691.6
VIX 12.15/13.75 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is overall bullish)
Trin range: 0.75 - 0.95 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +112/-70 (bulls with the edge; selling in consumer staples, esp. food product makers; buying in internet and software)

Canadian $ (FXC) drops below major support; Gold (GLD), Coal (KOL), Uranium (URA), Oil services (OIH, XES) also violating support; Global markets selling off; Cocoa (NIB), Nat gas (UNG) break out
June 15, 2018

1:40 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2761.7/2780.3
DTX 1091.6/1111.2
DJIA 24895/25115
Nasdaq 7704/7756
RUT 1673/1684.6
VIX 11.95/13.15 (bullish)
Trin range: 1.05 - 1.5 (rising Trin is bearish but Trin at 1.5 is contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +115/-81 (bulls pushing back)

FANG/Software/Internet stocks continue to push Nasdaq to record highs; US$ pops as Aussie $ (FXA), Swissie (FXF), Euro (FXE) drop
June 14, 2018

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2776.5/2790.5
DTX 1097.4/1108.6
DJIA 25135/25335
Nasdaq 7723.5/7776.5
RUT 1674.5/1684.9
VIX 11.7/12.7 (falling VIX is bullish)
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.05 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +91/-84 (major rotation out of aero & defense (PPA), Insurance (KIE) and into FANG/Internet/Software (FDN, PNQI))

FANG stocks push Nasdaq to record high; REITs, Homebuilders (XHB) reverse sharply; Rest of the market is quiet before 2pm Fed rate decision
June 13, 2018

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2784.5/2791.5
DTX 1100.8/1110.2
DJIA 25280/25360
Nasdaq 7706/7749
RUT 1676/1684.8
VIX 12/12.45 (bullish)
Trin range: 0.75 - 1.0 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +58/-120 (bears are moving in)

Internet/software (PNQI, FDN, SKYY, HACK) hit record highs helping to push Russell, Nasdaq to their own intraday record highs; REITs (VNQ, DRN) continue in rally mode
June 12, 2018

2:25 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2780.2/2789.8
DTX 1102.7/1113.3
DJIA 25275/25365
Nasdaq 7670/7715
RUT 1675/1687.8
VIX 11.85/12.5 (bullish)
Trin range: 0.6 - 1.0 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +73/-105 (bulls with the edge but bears aren't going away)

Bulls push Transports above resistance; Agribiz (MOO) breaks out as Corn (CORN), Soybeans (SOYB) break down; Retail (XRT) rallies to new yearly high
June 11, 2018

1:45 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2780.2/2790.8
DTX 1094.4/1111.6
DJIA 25290/25420
Nasdaq 7643/7682
RUT 1671.3/1677.1
VIX 12/12.6 (bullish)
Trin range: 0.6 - 0.75 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +88/-84 (bull/bear battle; rotation out of regional banks (KRE) and into healthcare (IHI, PJP, XLV))

Costco (COST), Consumer Discretionary (XLY) hit record highs; Twitter (TWTR) pops to 3 year high
June 8, 2018

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2763.6/2779.8
DTX 1081.6/1092.4
DJIA 25165/25370
Nasdaq 7595.1/7658.7
RUT 1665.9/1673.7
VIX 12.05/13.05 (bullish)
Trin range: 0.75 - 1.0 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +113/-47 (bullish)

Brazil etfs (BRF, EWZ) & Brazil Real (BZF) sink to new yearly lows; Tech takes time off; Swissie (FXF) breaks out; Clean energy funds (ICLN, PBW) violate support
June 7, 2018

2:20 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2756.1/2779.9
DTX 1076.4/1087.6
DJIA 25075/25325
Nasdaq 7582.6/7697.4
RUT 1648/1680
VIX 11.7/13.3 (falling VIX is bullish)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.1 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +49/-209 (very bearish)

Uranium (URA) explodes above resistance; Regional banks (KRE) attempt a new high; Solar (TAN) dims; Brazil (BRF, EWZ), Bonds, Utes (XLU) continue to tumble
June 6, 2018

1:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2748.5/2762.5
DTX 1070/1080.6
DJIA 24855/24945
Nasdaq 7622/7663
RUT 1664.4/1671.2
VIX 11.85/12.55 (falling VIX is bullish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.0 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +107/-71 (bulls with the edge)

Popping: Retail (XRT, RTH), Uranium (URA), FANG/Dropping: Utes (XLU), REITS, Mexico (EWW, MXF)
June 5, 2018

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2739.5/2757.5
DTX 1066.4/1083.6
DJIA 24710/24870
Nasdaq 7600/7644
RUT 1652.8/1661.7
VIX 12.15/13.35 (falling VIX is bullish)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.15 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +98/-77 (bull/bear battle; rotation out of REITs and into retail (URBN, BURL, M, KSS))

FANG stocks again hitting record highs (NFLX, AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, TWTR) pushing Tech (XLK) to its own record high; Cocoa (NIB), Solar (TAN), Egypt (EGPT) fail support
June 4, 2018

1:30 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2738.9/2749.1
DTX 1081.6/1097.4
DJIA 24725/24875
Nasdaq 7561/7604
RUT 1640.3/1655.7
VIX 12.9/13.6 (falling VIX is bullish)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.1 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +108/-83 (bull/bear battle)

FANG stocks hit record highs (NFLX, FB, AMZN, MSFT) helping the Nasdaq to break out; Oil (USO) slumps below support; Bonds, Utes (XLU) tank
June 1, 2018

2:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2718.7/2741.3
DTX 1080.5/1094.5
DJIA 24545/24675
Nasdaq 7487/7580
RUT 1635.4/1652.6
VIX 13.05/14.05 (falling VIX is bullish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.1 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +104/-82 (bulls with the edge; rotation out of oil & gas and into medical devices and internet)

Bears put the kibosh on yesterday's rally; Cocoa (NIB) slips below support; Mister Softee (MSFT) moves to another all-time high
May 31, 2018

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2703.5/2722.5
DTX 1074.4/1093.6
DJIA 24330/24620
Nasdaq 7436/7492
RUT 1634.9/1649.7
VIX 14.75/16.25 (rising VIX is bearish; VIX back over 15 means bears are trying to retake control)
Trin range: 0.95 - 1.3 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +43/-158 (bearish)

Russell 2000 (RUT), Medical Devices (IHI), Internet (FDN) rally to record highs; REITs (MORT, IYR, VNQ) continue to move up; VIX drops back into bullish territory
May 30, 2018

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2702.4/2732.6
DTX 1077.5/1095.7
DJIA 24460/24700
Nasdaq 7423.5/7490.5
RUT 1624/1656
VIX 14.25/16.05 (falling VIX is bullish; VIX dropping back under 15 means bulls are re-taking the reins)
Trin range: 0.75 - 1.1 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +132/-63 (bullish, but bears are still hanging around)

VIX jumps back into bearish territory; Euro funds, Euro (FXE) drop/US$ (UUP), US bonds pop; Wind energy (FAN) in free fall; Mexico (MXF, EWW) continues to sink to new yearly lows; S&P, Industrials break near-term support
May 29, 2018

2:20 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2674.5/2710.5
DTX 1067.5/1087.5
DJIA 24275/24635
Nasdaq 7345/7435
RUT 1611.3/1628.5
VIX 14.6/17.9 (rising VIX is bearish; VIX over 15 means bears are taking control)
Trin range: 0.95 - 1.3 (bearish)
Average VWAPs: +56/-147 (bearish)

Cocoa (NIB), Oil (USO), Wind energy (FAN) tumble; European funds plummet beneath support (EWP, EWO, EWI); India (EPI, IFN), Indonesia (IDX), Bonds strengthen
May 25, 2018

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2712.6/2727.4
DTX 1082.6/1095.4
DJIA 24695/24825
Nasdaq 7407/7453
RUT 1623.3/1628.7
VIX 12.85/13.35 (bullish)
Trin range: 1.2 - 1.7 (bearish)
Average VWAPs: +63/-82 (bull/bear battle)

Medical devices (IHI), Netflix (NFLX) hit record highs; Latin America (ILF) plummets; Market bounces back after N. Korean talks fall apart
May 24, 2018

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2707.4/2736.4
DTX 1072.7/1091.3
DJIA 24605/24900
Nasdaq 7357/7443
RUT 1616.6/1631.4
VIX 12.15/14.25 (falling VIX is bullish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.15 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +107/-51 (bulls taking the lead)

Greenback (UUP) breaks out while Euro (FXE), Pound (FXB) break down; India (IFN), Frontier Markets (FM), Europe funds continue to sink; Luxury retailers Tiffany, Ralph Lauren (TIF, RL) pop on positive earnings
May 23, 2018

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2709.5/2721.5
DTX 1061.7/1070.3
DJIA 24630/24800
Nasdaq 7335/7390
RUT 1618.6/1629.4
VIX 13/14.5 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.35 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +83/-76 (bull/bear battle)

Oil Services (PXJ, OIH) rally above resistance: Regional banks (KRE) hits record high; Turkey (TUR) continues to leg down
May 22, 2018

1:40 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2728.6/2742.2
DTX 1077.8/1091.2
DJIA 24885/25065
Nasdaq 7377/7438
RUT 1633.9/1639.9
VIX 12.7/13.2 (VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.65 - 0.85 (falling Trin is bullish (!))
Average VWAPs: +64/-105 (moderately bearish)

Transports, Industrials push above resistance; Russell 2000, Norway (NORW), Medical Devices (IHI) hit record highs; Gaming (BJK) rallies to new yearly high
May 21, 2018

1:40 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2725.7/2740.3
DTX 1077.4/1092.6
DJIA 24885/25115
Nasdaq 7368/7432
RUT 1627.8/1642.2
VIX 12.7/13.6 (VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.0 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +73/-96 (bull/bear battle)

Mexico funds (EWW, MXF), Indonesia (IDX) sink to new yearly lows; India (PIN), S. Africa (EZA), Latin America (ILF), Brazil (EWZ, BRF) break support
May 18, 2018

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2709.2/2720.8
DTX 1066.8/1076
DJIA 24665/24785
Nasdaq 7344/7391
RUT 1624.2/1632.8
VIX 13.15/13.85 (VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 1.2 - 1.55 (bearish; Trin over 1.5 is a contrarian signal)
Average VWAPs: +73/-76 (bull/bear battle)

Steel (SLX) retests previous high; Oil & Gas producers (XOP), Heating Oil/Diesel (UHN) climb to new highs; Shipping (SEA), Yen (FXY), Frontier Markets (FM) fall below support levels; Brazil real (BZF) sinks to new low; Bonds, REITs, Utes continue to slide on rising interest rates
May 17, 2018

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2712/2732
DTX 1069.2/1082.2
DJIA 24440/24840
Nasdaq 7345/7425
RUT 1615.5/1629.3
VIX 12.65/14 (VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.35 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +47/-131 (bearish)

***The Stock Market Cook Book is on hiatus today.***
May 16, 2018

Bonds, REITs, Water (PIO, FIW, PHO) tank; Gold (IAU, GLD) breaks support; N. Zealand dollar ($NZD), USD (UUP) break out/Yen (FXY), Euro (FXE) break down; Frontier markets (FM), Belgium (EWK), Mexico (EWW) violate major support levels
May 15, 2018

2:25 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2699/2718.6
DTX 1055.9/1064.1
DJIA 24540/24810
Nasdaq 7317/7343
RUT 1592.1/1604.5
VIX 13.8/14.8 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.05 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +87/-78 (bull/bear battle)

Real estate (IYR, VNQ) tanks; Mr. Softee (MSFT) hits another all-time high; Malaysia (EWM) bounces back
May 14, 2018

12:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2730/2742
DTX 1065.2/1078.2
DJIA 24880/25010
Nasdaq 7422/7458
RUT 1602.8/1614.2
VIX 12.8/13.3 (bullish)
Trin range: 0.6 - 0.75 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +60/-118 (mildly bearish)

Bulls losing their grip as selling pressure rises going into the weekend; UK fund (EWU) breaks out
May 11, 2018

1:45 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2719.1/2732.9
DTX 1060.1/1075.1
DJIA 24710/24870
Nasdaq 7372/7418
RUT 1601.4/1609.4
VIX 13.0/13.4 (bullish)
Trin range: 1.25 - 1.55 (bearish)
Average VWAPs: +54/-108 (mildly bearish)

Bulls push S&P (SPX), Russell 2000 (RUT), Nasdaq back above resistance; Tech names notch record highs (AAPL, MSFT, FDN, SKYY, HACK); Canada (EWC), Steel (SLX), Real estate (IYR, VNQ, DRN) break out; Solar (TAN) flares on California mandate
May 10, 2018

1:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2705/2727.8
DTX 1051.5/1064.5
DJIA 24580/24810
Nasdaq 7355/7415
RUT 1596.5/1610.5
VIX 12.8/13.6 (falling VIX is bullish; VIX below 15 means bulls are back in control)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.0 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +150/-45 (bullish)

Bulls take control as volatility deflates; Oil (USO), Oil producers (XOP), Diesel (UHN) hit new yearly highs; Brazil real (BZF), Mexico funds (EWW, MXF) break down; Swissie (FXF) falls to new low; Malaysia fund (EWM) tanks on results of presidential election
May 9, 2018

2:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2674.1/2703.1
DTX 1042.2/1055.2
DJIA 24325/24605
Nasdaq 7259/7353
RUT 1584.2/1601.8
VIX 13.5/14.65 (falling VIX is bullish; VIX moving below 15 means bulls are back in control)
Trin range: 0.7 - 0.85 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +178/-53 (very bullish)

Cybersecurity (HACK) hits record high; Aussie $ (FXA), Brazil real (BZF) break violate major support levels; Indonesia (IDX) slides to new yearly low
May 8, 2018

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2659.7/2676.3
DTX 1036.3/1053.7
DJIA 24210/24410
Nasdaq 7226/7279
RUT 1577.5/1584.5
VIX 14.65/15.45 (bull/bear indecision)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.15 (neutral to mildly bearish)
Average VWAPs: +83/-99 (bull/bear battle)

Oil explorers/producers (XOP) breaks out to a new yearly high; Oil services (XES, OIH), Shipping (SEA) top resistance; Poland (EPOL) violates support
May 7, 2018

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2669.4/2684.4
DTX 1035.2/1044.8
DJIA 24320/24540
Nasdaq 7236/7312
RUT 1565.7/1592.1
VIX 14.4/15.5 (falling VIX is bullish and VIX under 15 means the bulls are gaining control)
Trin range: 0.7 - 1.0 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +115/-64 (moderately bullish)

Bulls fight back as volatility deflates; Oil (USO), Apple (AAPL) notch record highs; REITS (VNQ, DRN, MORT, IYR) break out; Pandora (P) pops on unexpectedly good earnings; Turkey (TUR) continues to tank
May 4, 2018

2:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2615.3/2668.1
DTX 1017.2/1039.8
DJIA 23780/24370
Nasdaq 7058/7222
RUT 1540.4/1573.2
VIX 14.85/16.9 (falling VIX is bullish)
Trin range: 0.7 - 1.0 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +210/-45 (very bullish)

Argentina (ARGT), Mexico (MXF) sink below support; Mid-day market reversal erases most of the early morning losses; Volatility heats up
May 3, 2018

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2594.6/2645.4
DTX 1008.1/1031.9
DJIA 23530/23970
Nasdaq 6991.4/7103.2
RUT 1532.3/1555.7
VIX 15.85/18.65 (rising VIX is bearish)
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.3 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +221/-68 (very bullish to contrarian; selling in biotech and pharma)

Fed leaves rates unchanged giving the market a boost; Consumer Staples (XLP) breaches major support to hit two year low; Wind Energy (FAN) moves to record high
May 2, 2018

2:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2642.9/2661.1
DTX 1028.9/1045.1
DJIA 23990/24210
Nasdaq 7108/7172
RUT 1549/1567
VIX 14.7/15.6 (VIX falling below 15 means bulls are gaining control)
Trin range: 0.95 - 1.45 (bearish/contrarian (!))
Average VWAPs: +148/-70 (bullish but bears are in the background)

USD (UUP), N. Zealand $ ($NZD) break resistance as Aussie $ (FXA), Euro (FXE), Brit Pound (FXB) violate support; Consumer Staples (XLP), Bonds (LQD, DSJ, EMB) slide to new yearly lows; Indonesia (IDX) plummets
May 1, 2018

1:30 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2619.7/2644.5
DTX 1028.3/1043.7
DJIA 23680/24120
Nasdaq 7032/7076
RUT 1527.6/1541.8
VIX 15.95/16.85 (VIX above 15 is bearish)
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.15 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +74/-124 (bearish)

Bears back in action as Russell 2000 clings to support
April 30, 2018

2:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2656.3/2682.9
DTX 1044.3/1061.7
DJIA 24220/24500
Nasdaq 7058/7170
RUT 1549.7/1563.7
VIX 15.1/16.45 (VIX above 15 is bearish)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.3 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +39/-172 (bearish)

Wind energy (FAN) breezes to a 4 year high; Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT) hit intraday record highs; REITs (VNQ, IYR) jump
April 27, 2018

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2659/2678
DTX 1040.1/1054.7
DJIA 24195/24385
Nasdaq 7074/7196
RUT 1549/1563
VIX 15.45/16.75 (falling VIX is bullish but VIX above 15 is overall bearish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.2 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +93/-113 (bull/bear battle)

Oil explorers & servicers (XOP, OIH) break out; Euro (FXE) fails support; Facebook (FB) jumps 9% on blowout earnings
April 26, 2018

12:40 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2647.5/2667.5
DTX 1030/1053.6
DJIA 24125/24375
Nasdaq 7006/7138
RUT 1550.3/1559.7
VIX 16.45/17.8 (falling VIX is bullish but VIX above 15 is overall bearish)
Trin range: 1.0 - 1.25 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +149/-83 (bullish but bears are still in the thick of things)

Winner, winner chicken dinner! Long N. Zealand $ ($NZD)/Short Swiss franc (FXF); Greenback breaks out (UUP); Cocoa (NIB) continues in rally mode; Bonds slip-sliding away
April 25, 2018

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2612.7/2641.3
DTX 1037/1053
DJIA 23825/24095
Nasdaq 6927/7053
RUT 1540/1555
VIX 18.15/19.85 (bearish)
Trin range: 0.75 - 0.95 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +105/-72 (bulls by a nose, but that could change any minute)

Volatility spikes on major market sell-off led by Homebuilders (XHB), Consumer Staples & Discretionary (XLP, XLY), IT (VGT), Biotech (XBI, IBB), Tech (FDN, PNQI); Cocoa (NIB) hits another new high; Bonds slide to new lows on rising interest rates
April 24, 2018

Trade Idea: Bear call credit spreads
Seasoned options traders may want to take advantage of the spike in volatility by writing call credit spreads on stocks that are displaying downward momentum. Another strategy may be to write a covered put on a stock that you are short (and don't mind if you lose your position).

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2623.9/2683.5
DTX 1033.6/1068.4
DJIA 24880/24580
Nasdaq 6983/7171
RUT 1550.3/1574.5
VIX 15.55/19.15 (rising VIX is very bearish)
Trin range: 0.7 - 1.0 (neutral Trin means that there's a lot more room for the market to move down)
Average VWAPs: +26/-493 (ridiculously bearish/contrarian)

Greenback (UUP) breaks out/Loonie (FXC), Aussie $ (FXA), Yen (FXY) break down; Precious metals tank; Bonds slide to new yearly lows; Apple (AAPL) testing major support
April 23, 2018

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2667/2683
DTX 1056.5/1068.5
DJIA 24385/24535
Nasdaq 7118/7196
RUT 1558.9/1571.5
VIX 15.65/17.3 (bearish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.1 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +59/-124 (moderately bearish)

Shipping (SEA) pops/Consumer Staples (XLP), Gold (GLD) drop
April 20, 2018

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2663.1/2693.9
DTX 1054.4/1069.6
DJIA 24385/24675
Nasdaq 7132/7222
RUT 1561.8/1574.2
VIX 15.45/17.55 (bearish)
Trin range: 0.65 - 1.0 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +65/-91 (bull/bear tug of war)

Retail (XRT), Real estate (IYR), Consumer staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), Homebuilders (XHB), Semis (SOXX, SMH), Mexico (MXF, EWW), Vietnam (VNM) sink sharply; Swissie (FXF) breaks another support level; Intermediate bonds drop to new yearly lows
April 19, 2018

1:45 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2677.2/2702.8
DTX 1058.3/1075.7
DJIA 24540/24760
Nasdaq 7213/7277
RUT 1569/1583
VIX 15.6/17.05 (bearish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.0 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +53/-116 (moderately bearish; buying in banks, financials; selling in retail (XRT), builders (XHB), Biotech (XBI, IBB), semis (SOXX, SMH))

Timber (CUT), Aero & Defense (PPA), Cybersecurity (HACK) reach record highs; Cocoa (NIB), Base metals (DBB), Oil (USO), Norway (NORW), Peru (EPU) notch new yearly highs; Russia (RSX), Turkey (TUR) take off
April 18, 2018

1:40 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2703.6/2718.4
DTX 1065.9/1088.1
DJIA 24720/24840
Nasdaq 7260/7326
RUT 1580.2/1593.8
VIX 15.6/17 (rising VIX is bearish; a VIX close back above 15 means bears are retaking control)
Trin range: 0.6 - 0.9 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +102/-67 (moderately bullish but bears are grousing)

Cybersecurity (HACK), Saudi Arabia (KSA), Netflix (NFLX) pop to record highs; Strong buying in FANG, Biotech; Swissie (FXF) drops beneath support; Volatility slides below 15 indicating bulls may be back in business
April 17, 2018

1:45 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2692/2712.4
DTX 1053.4/1068
DJIA 24680/24920
Nasdaq 7206.5/7303.5
RUT 1564.9/1585.1
VIX 14.75/15.95 (falling VIX is bullish; a VIX close below 15 means bulls are retaking control)
Trin range: 0.75 - 1.1 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +92/-82 (bull/bear battle; buying into FANG, biotech; selling in air freight (AAWW, CHRW), regional banks (KRE, IAT))

Cocoa (NIB), Brit Pound (FXB) rise to new yearly highs; Palladium (PALL), Consumer Staples (XLP) jump; Volatility continues to drop
April 16, 2018

1:30 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2665.1/2687.7
DTX 1046.5/1070.4
DJIA 24480/24720
Nasdaq 7116/7187
RUT 1550.5/1563.5
VIX 16.2/17.15 (falling VIX is bullish but VIX above 15 means bears are still running the show)
Trin range: 1.0 - 1.6 (bearish/contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +132/-40 (bullish)

Energy explorers/producers (XOP) breaks out; Volatility continues to deflate
April 13, 2018

1:30 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2650/2680
DTX 1033.3/1046.7
DJIA 24335/24645
Nasdaq 7080/7184
RUT 1545.5/1563.5
VIX 17.1/18.4 (falling VIX is bullish but VIX above 15 means it's still in bear country)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.1 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +73/-65 (neutral; buying in oil & gas explorers/producers, selling in cruise lines, hotels, sporting goods stores)

Real Estate (IYR, VNQ), Homebuilders (XHB), Utilities (XLU) sell off; Regional banks (KRE), Aero & Defense (PPA) rise; Volatility shrinks
April 12, 2018

12:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2653.8/2680
DTX 1022.1/1041.9
DJIA 24300/24550
Nasdaq 7105/7170
RUT 1548/1562
VIX 18.25/19.35 (falling VIX is bullish; VIX staying under 20 means that the bears may be losing control)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.1 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +66/-65 (neutral; sector rotation on fairly light volume)

Oil (OIL, USO) stages bullish break-out; Malaysia moves above major resistance; Facebook (FB) pushes above resistance as Zuckerberg faces day two of Congressional grilling
April 11, 2018

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2640.6/2661.4
DTX 1015/1026.2
DJIA 24180/24380
Nasdaq 7085/7129
RUT 1535.8/1551.4
VIX 19.65/20.75 (falling VIX is bullish but VIX over 20 is overall bearish)
Trin range: 0.65 - 0.95 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +98/-54 (moderately bullish)

Oil (OIL, USO), aluminum (JJU), copper (JJC) jump; Sugar (SGG) retests previous all time low; Loonie (FXC) leaps above resistance while the New Zealand dollar ($NZD) and the Brazil real (BZF) fall beneath support; Israel (EIS) stages impressive rebound
April 10, 2018

1:30 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2634.5/2662.5
DTX 1016.3/1029.1
DJIA 24190/24510
Nasdaq 7015/7085
RUT 1517/1548
VIX 20.5/21.7 (bearish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.1 (slightly bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +106/-70 (bull/bear seesaw; selling in aero & defense, airlines, hotels & cruise lines (CCL, RCL), airlines (UAL, AAL); buying in biotech (XBI, IBB, BBH, FBT), Pharma (PJP), Healthcare (XLV))

Bears party hardy going into the weekend; Dow Transports testing major support; Oil (OIL, USO) reverses back into the red beginning the next leg down
April 6, 2018

3:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2583.1/2656.9
DTX 999.7/1040.3
DJIA 23665/24435
Nasdaq 6833/7067
RUT 1501/1541
VIX 19.2/23.4 (bearish)
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.1 (neutral (!))
Average VWAPs: +27/-257 (very bearish)

Platinum/palladium (PALL SPPP, PPLT) falls below support; Tesla (TSLA) stages strong rebound; Saudi Arabia (KSA) continues in rally mode
April 5, 2018

2:20 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2642/2672
DTX 1033/1045
DJIA 24315/24615
Nasdaq 7007.6/7112.4
RUT 1528.5/1545.3
VIX 18.95/20.45 (falling VIX is bullish but VIX is still firmly planted in the bear camp)
Trin range: 0.6 - 0.9 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +76/-124 (moderately bearish)

Despite today's broad rally, many support breaches: Lithium (LIT), Oil (OIL, USO), Social Media (SOCL), Gaming (BJK), Sweden (EWD), Twitter (TWTR)
April 4, 2018

2:25 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2573.6/2631.4
DTX 1018.5/1035.5
DJIA 23850/24160
Nasdaq 6812/7012
RUT 1491.7/1528.3
VIX 20.8/22.4 (bearish)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.4 (bearish)
Average VWAPs: +289/-28 (extremely bullish/contrarian)

Livestock (COW) sinks to new yearly low; Vietnam (VNM) pops to new yearly high; Market takes a rest but bears are still in active control
April 3, 2018

1:45 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2573/2607
DTX 1021.2/1036.8
DJIA 23640/23910
Nasdaq 6833/6947
RUT 1492.1/1508.9
VIX 21.1/23.4 (bearish)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.5 (bearish)
Average VWAPs: +60/-112 (bearish)

Broad sector sell-off led by tech, financials; Coffee (JO) slumps to another record low; Poland (EPOL), Greece (GREK) break support while Israel (EIS) continues in free fall; Gold (GLD), Silver (SLV) pop
April 2, 2018

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2550.8/2638.2
DTX 1002/1042.8
DJIA 23280/24120
Nasdaq 6795.6/7044.4
RUT 1490.8/1529.2
VIX 20.45/25.35 (bearish)
Trin range: 1.0 - 1.3 (bearish)
Average VWAPs: +22/-333 (extremely bearish/contrarian)

Market rallies on rebound in tech: Palladium (PALL) breaks support; Egypt (EGPT) pops to new yearly high
March 29, 2018

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2609.9/2642.5
DTX 1022.4/1049.5
DJIA 23930/24250
Nasdaq 6935.1/7091.1
RUT 1513.3/1535.7
VIX 22/25 (bearish)
Trin range: 1.15 - 1.5 (bearish/contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +204/-47 (extremely bullish/contrarian (!!))

REITs jump; Miners (XME), Steel (SLX), Lithium (LIT), Coal (KOL) break down; Uranium (URA), Sugar (SGG) retest previous lows; REITs jump; Tesla (TSLA) tanks
March 28, 2018

2:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2590.4/2632.6
DTX 1009.4/1029
DJIA 23670/24090
Nasdaq 6901/7036
RUT 1505.7/1521.3
VIX 22/25 (bearish)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.66 (bearish)
Average VWAPs: +113/-74 (rotation out of aero & defense, materials, IT, semis and into banks, insurance, biotech, REITs, pharma)

Interest rate sensitive issues (bonds, REITs, utes) rise; Carbon (GRN) in strong rally mode on expanding volume; Twitter (TWTR), Tesla (TSLA), Facebook (FB) plunge below support
March 27, 2018

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2645.2/2674.8
DTX 1030.9/1044.5
DJIA 24135/24445
Nasdaq 7125/7255
RUT 1530.1/1547.7
VIX 20.05/21.95 (falling VIX is bullish but VIX over 20 is bearish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.4 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +94/-262 (extremely bearish)

Pops: Saudi Arabia (KSA); Drops: Israel (EIS), New Zealand dollar ($NZD), US dollar (UUP); Facebook (FB), Tesla (TSLA) break support levels
March 26, 2018

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2600.7/2639.3
DTX 1016.5/1033.5
DJIA 23705/24045
Nasdaq 7022.3/7157.7
RUT 1512/1532
VIX 21.6/24.65 (very bearish)
Trin range: 0.75 - 1.05 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +84/-63 (bulls losing steam from opening rally)

Cocoa (NIB), Yen (FXY) jump to new yearly highs; Gold (GLD), Gold MIners (GDX) jump; Materials (XHB), Tech (XLK), Indonesia (IF) break support; Tesla (TSLA) retesting major support
March 23, 2018

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2622.3/2657.7
DTX 1029.9/1043.3
DJIA 23835/24105
Nasdaq 7066/7194
RUT 1524.5/1548.7
VIX 21.65/24.85 (very bearish)
Trin range: 0.65 - 1.05 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +109/-58 (moderately bullish)

Oil (USO, OIL), Loonie (FXC) jump; Consumer staples (XLP) falls to new yearly low; Carbon credit etn (GRN) rallies to new yearly high; Fed decision boosts the market as volatility deflates
March 21, 2018

2:20 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2712.4/2740.2
DTX 1065.3/1082.7
DJIA 24655/24995
Nasdaq 7345/7415
RUT 1570.4/1589.6
VIX 16.2/18.2 (falling VIX is bullish but VIX still over 15 is overall bearish)
Trin range: 0.7 - 0.9 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +144/-50 (very bullish)

Pops: Oil (USO, OIL); Drops: Base metals (DBB), Aussie dollar (FXA), Consumer staples (XLP), Pharma (PJP), Telecom (VOX), Bonds, Twitter (TWTR), Facebook (FB)
March 20, 2018

2:20 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2706/2725
DTX 1064.9/1072.3
DJIA 24650/24800
Nasdaq 7320/7380
RUT 1566.3/1575.8
VIX 18.4/19.35 (bearish)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.1 (bullish (!); lower Trin gives bears room to run)
Average VWAPs: +98/-71 (sector rotation out fo biotech, pharma, steel and into software, internet services)

Jump in volatility sparks broad market sell-off; Facebook (FB) leads sell-off in tech; Greece (GREK), India (IFN, INDY, PIN) break down; Ag commodities getting shucked (CORN, WEAT, COW, JJG, MOO); Uranium (URA), Coal (KOL) violate support
March 19, 2018

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2693.6/2741.4
DTX 1052.8/1069.2
DJIA 24420/24895
Nasdaq 7280/7420
RUT 1549.2/1585.8
VIX 17/22.35 (bearish)
Trin range: 0.7 - 1.1 (bullish (!); lower Trin gives bears room to run)
Average VWAPs: +54/-150 (bearish)

Wheat (WEAT), Corn (CORN), Grains (JJG), Aussie dollar (FXA) fall below support; Bonds continue to slide; Major averages treading water ahead of the weekend
March 16, 2018

2:30 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2745.7/2761.9
DTX 1059.9/1073.9
DJIA 24855/25075
Nasdaq 7468/7514
RUT 1575/1589
VIX 15.25/15.95 (falling VIX is bullish but VIX over 15 means bears are directing the show)
Trin range: 0.65 - 0.95 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +92/-94 (bull/bear battle)

Russell, S&P testing support; Wheat (WEAT), Loonie (FXC), Indonesia (IDX), Brazil (EWZ) violate support; Oil services (XES, OIH, PXJ), Biotech (BBH, XBI, FBT, IBB), Retail (XRT), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), Pharma (PJP) selling off hard
March 15, 2018

3:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2741/2763
DTX 1054.9/1064.9
DJIA 24755/25055
Nasdaq 7465/7525
RUT 1570/1588
VIX 15.95/17.45 (VIX over 15 means bears are back in the saddle)
Trin range: 1.0 - 1.55 (bearish)
Average VWAPs: +54/-114 (moderately bearish)

Market continues to slide led by selling in materials, banks, financials, healthcare, pharma; Signet Jewelers (SIG) sinks to six year low announcing the closure of 200 stores
March 14, 2018

1:45 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2736.9/2777.1
DTX 1060/1080
DJIA 24530/25130
Nasdaq 7466/7544
RUT 1578.7/1598.3
VIX 16.1/17.9 (rising VIX is bearish; VIX over 15 means bears are back in the saddle)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.25 (neutral to bearish)
Average VWAPs: +110/-76 (rotation out of materials, financials, healthcare, pharma and into internet and software)

White House shake-up spooks the market; New Zealand (ENZL) hits record high; Sugar (SGG) retests record low; FANG stocks slump
March 13, 2018

2:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2767.1/2801.9
DTX 1073.7/1086.3
DJIA 25035/25375
Nasdaq 7518/7637.3
RUT 1592/1609
VIX 15.4/16.55 (VIX over 15 means bears are back in the saddle)
Trin range: 0.95 - 1.6 (very bearish to contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +59/-134 (bearish)

Tech continues to move to record highs (XLK, SOXX, SMH, VGT, AAPL, AMZN, MSFT) pushing the Nasdaq to a record high; Volatility (VIX) turns back up as bears try to muscle back in; Selling seen in aero & defense contractors
March 12, 2018

2:20 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2776.8/2797
DTX 1067.7/1075.7
DJIA 25110/25450
Nasdaq 7551.4/7608.6
RUT 1594.1/1603.9
VIX 15.2/16.6 (rising VIX is bearish; VIX rising above 15 means that bears aren't giving up so easily)
Trin range: 0.75 - 1.1 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +76/-117 (bull/bear battle with bears starting to take the upper hand)

Water (FIW, PHO, PIO) surges while Grains (WEAT, JJC), Soybeans (SOYB), Cocoa (NIB) fumble; Banks (KBE, KRE), Tech (XLK, SOXX, SMH, FDN, SKYY) move to new highs; Volatility (VIX) dives
March 9, 2018

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2751.5/2785.5
DTX 1051.1/1074.9
DJIA 25005/25320
Nasdaq 7469/7561
RUT 1573.2/1596.8
VIX 14.6/16.0 (falling VIX is bullish; VIX falling under 15 means that bulls are re-taking control)
Trin range: 1.0 - 1.25 (neutral to bearish)
Average VWAPs: +142/-67 (bullish)

Corn (CORN) rallies above resistance; Swissie (FXF) violates near-term support; Bearish topping tail in Booking (BKNG) points to buying exhaustion
March 8, 2018

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2720.7/2737.3
DTX 1034.4/1049.6
DJIA 24680/24950
Nasdaq 7390.5/7435
RUT 1562.9/1580.5
VIX 16.6/17.7 (falling VIX is bullish but VIX over 15 means bears are still in the driver's seat)
Trin range: 1.1 - 1.35 (bearish)
Average VWAPs: +55/-122 (bearish)

Tech continues to attract buyers; Global stocks sell-off with some India etfs (EPI, PIN) falling below support levels
March 7, 2018

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2701/2724
DTX 1033.1/1044.5
DJIA 24535/24815
Nasdaq 7307.5/7382.5
RUT 1551.5/1574.5
VIX 18.2/20.0 (rising VIX is bearish)
Trin range: 1.05 - 1.45 (bearish)
Average VWAPs: +144/-60 (bulls stepping in after morning sell-off; rotation out of consumer staples (XLP), discretionary (XLY), and retail (XRT), and into tech (FDN))

Record highs: Semis (SMH, SOXX), Regional banks (KRE), Internet/tech (FDN, PNQI, SKYY); Global stocks, precious metals rebound
March 6, 2018

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2708/2732
DTX 1028.9/1045.1
DJIA 24670/24990
Nasdaq 7317.5/7377.5
RUT 1538.6/1557.6
VIX 18.05/19.75 (very bearish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.1 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +126/-66 (bullish, but bears are still in the picture)

Yen (FXY) jumps over major resistance to stake a new yearly high; Cocoa (NIB) stages strong breakout; Homebuilders (XHB, NAIL) coming unhinged
March 2, 2018

2:05pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2647.3/2691.7
DTX 1014.7/1034.7
DJIA 24200/24580
Nasdaq 7087/7253
RUT 1494/1533.2
VIX 20.25/26.25 (very bearish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.35 (neutral to bearish)
Average VWAPs: +241/-48 (extremely bullish to contrarian (!!!))

Broad sector sell-off pushes major averages below support levels; Biotech, Pharma, Tech, Homebuilders, Water, Precious Metals, Solar lead the sector sell-off; Wheat (WEAT), Cocoa (NIB) lead the rally in softs
March 1, 2018

2:20pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2659.1/2730.9
DTX 1028.5/1053.5
DJIA 24455/25185
Nasdaq 7092/7308
RUT 1497.5/1522.5
VIX 19.55/25.45 (very bearish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.3 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +33/-302 (extremely bearish/contrarian)

Wheat (WEAT), Grains (JJG) break out; Lithium (LIT) gains downward momentum; Shipping (SEA) sinks to one year low
February 28, 2018

2:25pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2738/2767
DTX 1045.2/1058.8
DJIA 25310/25575
Nasdaq 7316/7394
RUT 1528.7/1544.3
VIX 17.4/19.7 (VIX over 15 means bears are still in control)
Trin range: 0.75 - 1.05 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +138/-64 (bulls in control but bears are still hanging around)

Stocks, bonds, commodities abruptly shift into reverse as volatility kicks back up; Banks (KRE, KBE), Financials (XLF) turn toppy
February 27, 2018

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2753.8/2778.8
DTX 1060.6/1076.6
DJIA 25400/25730
Nasdaq 7360/7413
RUT 1545/1559
VIX 15.45/16.95 (falling VIX is bullish; but VIX over 15 means bears are still in control)
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.05 (bullish to neutral; moderate Trin means that market has more room to rise (and fall, too))
Average VWAPs: +125/-65 (bulls in control but bears aren't going into hibernation just yet)

Bulls get a leg up as major averages pop above resistance; Most sectors in the green led by tech with Amazon (AMZN) & Netflix (NFLX) moving to record highs; Russia (RSX, RSXJ), Far East (FXI, THD, EWH, EWY) lead global stock rally
February 26, 2018

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2753.8/2778.8
DTX 1060.6/1076.6
DJIA 25400/25730
Nasdaq 7360/7413
RUT 1545/1559
VIX 15.45/16.95 (falling VIX is bullish; but VIX over 15 means bears are still in control)
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.05 (bullish to neutral; moderate Trin means that market has more room to rise (and fall, too))
Average VWAPs: +125/-65 (bulls in control but bears aren't going into hibernation just yet)

Interest rate sensitive issues (utes, bonds, REITs) rebound; Oil continues to rally
February 23, 2018

2:30 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2713.7/2731.5
DTX 1047.3/1055.1
DJIA 25025/25185
Nasdaq 7233/7293
RUT 1531.8/1541.1
VIX 16.95/18.75 (falling VIX is bullish; but VIX over 15 means bears are still in control)
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.15 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +148/-49 (bullish)

Oil (OIL, USO) pops/Munis drop
February 22, 2018

12:45 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2704.7/2731.3
DTX 1042.3/1054.8
DJIA 24855/25195
Nasdaq 7235/7281
RUT 1532.8/1552.8
VIX 17.85/19.85 (need VIX to stay under 20 before turning bullish)
Trin range: 0.7 - 0.9 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +95/-80 (bulls and bears back to duking it out)

Social media funds (FDN, SOCL) and Regional Banks (KRE, IAT) inch up to record highs; Coffee (JO) losing its mojo as it sinks to a record low
February 21, 2018

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2717.8/2749.2
DTX 1032/1057
DJIA 24965/25250
Nasdaq 7254.5/7337.5
RUT 1530.5/1554.5
VIX 16.45/20.25 (tanking VIX is very bullish)
Trin range: 1.2 - 1.75 (bearish contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +178/-41 (bulls fight back)

Melting down: Metals (GLD, SLV, JJC), Foreign currencies (FXF, FXY, FXC, FXE); Egypt (EGPT) breaks out to new yearly high
February 20, 2018

2:35 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2716/2737.6
DTX 1030.5/1047.5
DJIA 24980/25180
Nasdaq 7208/7296
RUT 1534.8/1546.4
VIX 19.45/21.35 (rising VIX is bearish)
Trin range: 0.6 - 0.9 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +105/-98 (bull/bear battle)

Pharma (PPH), Healthcare (XLV) head above resistance; REITs, Junk Bonds gain momentum
February 16, 2018

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2726/2756.8
DTX 1047/1061
DJIA 25150/25435
Nasdaq 7236/7303
RUT 1532.2/1557.8
VIX 17.45/19.55 (bulls & bears battle for control)
Trin range: 0.95 - 1.45 (bearish)
Average VWAPs: +96/-105 (bull/bear battle)

Grains (JJG) enter rally mode; Nickel (JJN), Yen (FXY), Swissie (FXF) notch new highs; Tech sector (XLK), Bitcoin (GBTC), China (YINN, FXI), Africa (EZA, AFK) gain; Apple (AAPL) i-pops over major resistance
February 15, 2018

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2689.8/2724.2
DTX 1036.7/1053.7
DJIA 24810/25150
Nasdaq 7130/7250
RUT 1516.9/1533.1
VIX 18.2/20.8 (bulls & bears battle for control)
Trin range: 0.95 - 1.4 (rising Trin is bearish (!))
Average VWAPs: +185/-57 (very bullish but bears are starting to pick up steam)

Investors heart the market in broad sector rally; Precious metals, energy pop/USD (UUP) continues to drop; Yen (FXY) breaks out to new yearly high; Volatility (VIX) plummets
February 14, 2018

2:20 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2649/2697.9
DTX 1029.4/1048.6
DJIA 24490/24850
Nasdaq 6977/7135
RUT 1483.3/1525.3
VIX 17.75/22.25 (falling VIX is bullish; bears starting to lose steam as VIX falls under 20)
Trin range: 0.55 - 0.85 (very bullish to contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +277/-36 (extremely bullish to contrarian)

Market moves higher against high volatility; Yen (FXY) retests September high as USD (UUP) drops; Treasuries continue to sink while munis show signs of recovery
February 13, 2018

2:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2637.1/2670.3
DTX 1019.7/1040.9
DJIA 24430/24715
Nasdaq 6938/7032
RUT 1482/1496
VIX 24.2/27.8 (very bearish)
Trin range: 0.7 - 1.05 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +207/-36 (very bullish to contrarian)

US and global markets rebound as volatility begins to deflate
February 12, 2018

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2622.5/2664.5
DTX 1011.9/1033.7
DJIA 24275/24645
Nasdaq 6880/7000
RUT 1466.9/1493.1
VIX 24.8/29.7 (falling VIX is short-term bullish but VIX is still very bearish overall)
Trin range: 0.55 - 0.85 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +233/-34 (very bullish to contrarian)

Breaking down: China (FXI, YINN), Coal (KOL), Palladium (PALL); Bonds fall to new yearly lows; Twitter (TWTR) finally feeling investor love on glowing earnings & user growth
February 8, 2018

2:30 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2615/2685
DTX 1024/1056
DJIA 24200/24900
Nasdaq 6846/7074
RUT 1473/1511
VIX 25.1/36.05 (very bearish)
Trin range: 0.75 - 0.95 (falling Trin is bullish (!!!))
Average VWAPs: +51/-270 (extremely bearish/contrarian)

Oil (OIL, USO), Heating OIl (UHN) breach near-term support; Bonds turn back down; USD (UUP) moves above near-term resistance; Bears step-in mid-day to quash the opening rally
February 7, 2018

1:30 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2677.3/2727.7
DTX 1048.3/1066.7
DJIA 24765/25295
Nasdaq 7045.4/7170.3
RUT 1493.3/1516.8
VIX 21.2/28.8 (bearish)
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.35 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +49/-197 (extremely bearish)

Spike in volatility (VIX) destroys inverse VIX etns (XIV, SVXY); REITs continue to drop while bonds show signs of stabilizing; Many sectors sink below support levels
February 6, 2018

2:35 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2593/2687
DTX 1012.1/1062.9
DJIA 23780/24800
Nasdaq 6827/7099
RUT 1461.5/1514.5
VIX 19.7/50.3 (extremely bearish)
Trin range: 0.55 - 1.0
Average VWAPs: +118/-116 (bull/bear nuclear war; selling in REITs, healthcare, pharma, insurance; buying/short-covering in retail, tech)

Volatility (VIX) soars; Strong selling in Consumer staples (XLP), Healthcare (XLV), and Pharma (PJP); REITs, Bonds continue to plunge
February 5, 2018

1:45 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2716.6/2763.4
DTX 1055.6/1076.4
DJIA 25010/25265
Nasdaq 7142.6/7277.4
RUT 1523/1547
VIX 16.8/23.6 (very bearish)
Trin range: 0.65 - 0.9 (bullish (!!!))
Average VWAPs: +113/-43 (bullish (!!); major selling in consumer staples, pharm, healthcare)

Broad market sell-off marked by jump in volatility; Bonds slide to multi-year lows; REITs (VNQ, IYR) continue to sell-off; Apple (AAPL) falls below next level of support; Alphabet (GOOGL) drops; Wind Energy (FAN) breaks down
February 2, 2018

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2776/2809
DTX 1072.8/1089.2
DJIA 25610/26060
Nasdaq 7275/7365
RUT 1556/1577
VIX 14/15.75 (VIX rising over 15 means bears are taking control)
Trin range: 0.65 - 0.8 (bullish (!!!))
Average VWAPs: +77/-158 (very bearish; mass exodus out of utes and bonds)

Nickel (JJN) tops/Nat Gas (UNG) drops; Treasuries (TLT, VGLT, IEF, IEI, ITE) tumble on terrific 5% GDP estimate; Pop in both Facebook (FB) & Twitter (TWTR) push Social Media funds (FDN, SOCL) to record highs
February 1, 2018

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2814.4/2839
DTX 1086/1103
DJIA 26015/26385
Nasdaq 7347/7454
RUT 1568.8/1583.2
VIX 12.25/14.1 (falling VIX is bullish)
Trin range: 0.75 - 1.05 (moderately bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +107/-106 (bull/bear battle reflecting sector rotation mainly out of utes and bonds)

Fed keeps rates steady; Miners (XME), Palladium (PALL) fail support; Healthcare (XLV), Pharma (PJP), Biotech (IBB) drop; Chinese Yuan (CYB) rallies to record high; Amazon (AMZN) continues to defy gravity
January 31, 2018

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2822.4/2839.2
DTX 1099/1112.8
DJIA 25155/26340
Nasdaq 7398/7454
RUT 1578.3/1594.3
VIX 13.45/14.35 (falling VIX is bullish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.0 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +103/-105 (bull/bear battle reflecting sector rotation)

Broad market sell-off pushing volatility to highest level in 6 months; Transports trying to hold onto support--a break through that could be a sign that the bears are gaining the upper-hand
January 30, 2018

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2817.2/2837.8
DTX 1095.1/1108.9
DJIA 25995/26255
Nasdaq 7374/7446
RUT 1579.4/1595.6
VIX 14.1/15.4 (rising VIX is bearish and VIX moving 15 could be a sign that the bears are about to move in)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.15 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +125/-74 (bull/bear battle)

Volatility jumps; REITs, muni bonds plummet; Coal (KOL) pops to a new high; Wind Energy (FAN) breaches first level of support; Global stocks fade
January 29, 2018

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2854.8/2870.6
DTX 1109.9/1121.1
DJIA 26455/26610
Nasdaq 7459.7/7507.3
RUT 1601/1609
VIX 11.95/13.45 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is still bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.6 - 0.7 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +92/-101 (bull/bear battle)

Australia (EWA, FXA) breaks out; Pharma (PJP), Healthcare (XLV), Biotech (IBB) break out to new highs; Global funds continue to rally; Apple (AAPL) retests major support; Twitter (TWTR) jumps 8%
January 26, 2018

1:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2846.2/2861.8
DTX 1100.6/1107.4
DJIA 26425/26515
Nasdaq 7431.5/7462.5
RUT 1596/1608
VIX 11.0/11.6 (bullish)
Trin range: 0.6 - 0.8 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +113/-62 (bullish)

Brazil (EWZ) soars for second day in a row; Aero & Defense (PPA), Health care (XLV) notch record highs; USD continues to sink as Euro currencies soar
January 25, 2018

12:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2833.7/2848.6
DTX 1092/1115
DJIA 26260/26485
Nasdaq 7397.1/7458.5
RUT 1594.2/1607.8
VIX 11.4/11.9 (bullish)
Trin range: 0.75 - 0.95 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +110/-77 (bull/bear seesaw on sector rotation)

Greenback (UUP) sinks to 3 year low as Brit pound (FXB) smashes overhead resistance; Nickel (JJN), Gold (GLD, IAU) break out; Latin America (ILF, MXF), Emerging Markets (VWO, EEM) lead today's global rally; Int'l Bonds (ISHG, WLP, IGOV, PID) soar while Munis slide
January 24, 2018

2:20 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2823/2853
DTX 1108.3/1125.7
DJIA 26110/26390
Nasdaq 7374/7486
RUT 1596/1617
VIX 11/12.2 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX below 15 is overall bullish)
Trin range: 0.65 - 0.95 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +90/-102 (bull/bear battle; money coming out of semis (SOXX), machinery, IT and into life science tools (IHI))

Twitter (TWTR), Copper (JJC) break support; Hi-tech funds (SKYY, XT, SOCL, FDN, ROBO, BOTZ) & hi-tech stocks (AMZN, GOOGL, NFLX, MSFT) at record highs; China, Far East funds soar (FXI, IDX, INDY, VNM)
January 23, 2018

1:40 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2827.8/2842.2
DTX 1126.5/1135.5
DJIA 26145/26255
Nasdaq 7423.5/7466.5
RUT 1599.2/1608.8
VIX 10.65/11.25 (bullish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.0 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +118/-60 (bullish but bears are gathering some steam)

Biotech etfs (XBI, FBT) pop to record highs on merger mania; US & Global markets chugging to more record highs; Brit pound's (FXB) and Wind Energy's (FAN) climbs continue
January 22, 2018

1:40 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2808.1/2827.3
DTX 1123.7/1134.3
DJIA 25985/26185
Nasdaq 7332.8/7407.2
RUT 1595.6/1602.6
VIX 10.6/11.6 (bullish)
Trin range: 0.7 - 0.85 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +123/-50 (bullish)

China (FXI, HAO, YINN) soars; Water (PHO, PIO), Timber (CUT), Consumer Staples (XLP), Retail (RTH) rally to record highs
January 19, 2018

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2797.6/2806.4
DTX 1120.7/1128.1
DJIA 25940/26050
Nasdaq 7273.3/7329.9
RUT 1575.5/1594.7
VIX 11.2/12.2 (bullish)
Trin range: 1.0 - 1.4 (bearish)
Average VWAPs: +103/-63 (moderately bullish)

Lithium (LIT) testing major support; GE falls to multi-year low; Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL) hit record highs; Bonds, REITs, Utes continue to slide as interest rates rise
January 18, 2018

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2792.6/2804.6
DTX 1124/1133.4
DJIA 25950/26150
Nasdaq 7276.2/7310.2
RUT 1577.2/1586.8
VIX 11.7/12.4 (bullish)
Trin range: 0.55 - 0.8 (falling Trin is bullish but Trin near 0.5 is contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +105/-58 (moderately bullish)

Consumer Staples (XLP) moves to a record high; Brit pound (FXB) soars while N. Zealand dollar ($NZD) plummets; Global funds party on
January 17, 2018

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2778.4/2801.6
DTX 1119.9/1128.1
DJIA 25865/26075
Nasdaq 7229.3/7290.7
RUT 1573.7/1586.3
VIX 11/12.8 (falling VIX is bullish)
Trin range: 1.0 - 1.3 (neutral to bearish)
Average VWAPs: +140/-44 (bullish)

Bears charge in after market opens at record high; Volatility jumps; Greenback (UUP) breaks major support while other currencies soar; S-hole country funds break-out (AFK, MXF, FM); Wind energy (FAN) breezes above major resistance to hit a new high; Gold miners (GDX, GDXJ) break out
January 16, 2018

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2779.3/2807.5
DTX 1127.6/1142.4
DJIA 25815/26085
Nasdaq 7240/7330
RUT 1584/1604
VIX 10.7/11.9 (jump in VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is overall bullish)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.2 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +40/-210 (very bearish)

Bulls pull out all the stops! Record highs: All major indices, Timber (CUT), Water (PHO), Tech (XLK, FANG stocks minus F (FB)); Record Lows: Corn (CORN), Grains (JJG); Gold (GLD, IAU) breaks out; Brit pound (FXB), Euro pop/USD (UUP) drops; Global stocks (esp. Asia & Europe) soar
January 12, 2018

2:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2769.7/2786.7
DTX 1128.2/1138
DJIA 25640/25810
Nasdaq 7206/7262
RUT 1587.1/1598.3
VIX 9.85/10.1 (very bullish)
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.1 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +112/-62 (bullish)

Cotton (BAL) jumps; Steel (SLX) tops major resistance; Oil producers & servicers (XOP, XES) break out; Consumer Discretionary (XLF) notches another record high; Solar (TAN) & other clean energies (PBW, ICLN, GEX) break out to new highs; Bitcoin (GBTC) falls below near-term support
January 11, 2018

2:30 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2753/2765
DTX 1105.2/1128.4
DJIA 25400/25560
Nasdaq 7165/7205
RUT 1560.2/1587.2
VIX 9.55/9.95 (very bullish/contrarian)
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.05 (bullish to neutral (!))
Average VWAPs: +125/-50 (bullish)

Interest rate sensitive issues continue to fall (XLU, VNQ, BND); Banks (KRE, KBE), Financials (XLF, IAI) break out; Commodity countries slide (EWC, EWA)
January 10, 2018

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2736/2752
DTX 1100/1110.2
DJIA 25255/25440
Nasdaq 7112/7158
RUT 1551.5/1562.5
VIX 9.55/10.85 (falling VIX is bullish but VIX under 10 is becoming contrarian)
Trin range: 0.5 - 0.7 (very bullish)
Average VWAPs: +109/-55 (bullish)

Bulls continue to lift major averages to record levels; Oil (USO, OIL) pushes above key resistance; Bonds, REITs continue to drop indicating increased probability of interest rate hike
January 9, 2018

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2747.9/2759.5
DTX 1100.8/1106.2
DJIA 25310/25460
Nasdaq 7148.3/7186.7
RUT 1558.9/1565.7
VIX 9.35/9.85 (contrarian)
Trin range: 0.75 - 0.95 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +119/-52 (bullish)

Tech, Global funds continue in rally mode; Coal (KOL) pops; Loonie (FXC) leaps over major resistance; Topping Transports an indication of a market reversal?
January 5, 2018

2:20 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2728/2737
DTX 1084.5/1098.7
DJIA 25110/25190
Nasdaq 7097/7127
RUT 1552.1/1559.6
VIX 9.05/9.55 (contrarian)
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.3 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +88/-67 (bull/bear battle)

All major averages at record highs; Attorney General rescinds Obama-era legal marijuana policy bumming out pot stocks; Financials (XLF), Materials (XLB) continue to march to new highs; REITs getting razed
January 4, 2018

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2719.3/2730.7
DTX 1079.3/1091.7
DJIA 24955/25105
Nasdaq 7067/7098
RUT 1551.2/1560.8
VIX 8.95/9.25 (extremely contrarian)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.1 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +93/-88 (bull/bear stand-off)

FANG stocks GOOG, NFLX, FB hit record highs; Oil (USO, OIL), Agribiz (MOO), Healthcare (XLV) pop to new highs; Utilities (XLU) falls below major support; VIX testing record low
January 3, 2018

1:30 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2697.8/2716.2
DTX 1074.6/1085.4
DJIA 24825/24925
Nasdaq 7016.7/7083.3
RUT 1547.5/1555.5
VIX 8.90/9.6 (extremely contrarian)
Trin range: 0.7 - 1.0 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +114/-71 (bullish but bears still hanging in there)

Metals & Miners break out while Palladium (PALL), Steel (SLX) notch new highs; Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Materials (XLB) hit record highs; Uranium (URA) explodes to the upside as Solar (TAN), Coal (KOL) move to new yearly highs
January 2, 2018

Important Note: 3:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2682.4/2693.4
DTX 1065.3/1079.7
DJIA 24735/24865
Nasdaq 6924/7001
RUT 1536.1/1551.3
VIX 9.75/10.95 (VIX under 15 is bullish overall but VIX under 10 is becoming contrarian)
Trin range: 0.5 - 0.7 (very bullish)
Average VWAPs: +120/-81 (bullish but bears are hanging in there)

Recent Articles
Expectations in Asset Class Returns
September 19, 2017 at 12:48 pm

by
Patrick Glenn

We have come to expect that certain asset classes will, in the long run, produce a certain rate of return. When that class fails to produce this return we are disappointed and look for answers and someone or something to blame. But what is the basis for these expectations? This article will attempt to address these issues and provide some answers.

Total Return Profile of Large Cap Stocks
Let’s start with the Large Cap Stock (S&P 500) asset class. We are told that the total return should be about 10%. But where does this number come from? Figure 1 shows the cumulative monthly total return (price + dividends) of the S&P 500 since 1928. Note that the portion of total return due to dividends has historically been in the range from 30% to 60% depending on holding period. Shown on a log axis, where equal percentage changes receive equal weight at all points on the curve, the data is very much visually about a straight line. The actual straight line shown through the data is a best fit exponential regression, Y = a exp (b X), which also displays as a straight line on a log scale and mathematically reports a very high Pearson Correlation Coefficient with this data of 0.99. The annualized rate of return this regression line exhibits, as measured by its slope, is 10.98%.

 Figure 1. Total Return of the S&P 500 since 1928

Based on this you would expect that in the long run one should be able to achieve nearly 11% on an annual total return basis by investing in the S&P 500. But, as you can see, there are extended periods where the return fails to follow this benchmark. For example, from January 2000 through today (August 2017) the average annual total return in the S&P 500 has been only about 5.0%.

Figure 1 can be useful in a number of ways. First, the principle of ‘reversion to the mean’ indicates where the eventual value of this index will be at some time in the future. If the data is currently below the regression line, as it is now, then it is highly likely that it will eventually rise to cross it. If it is above the line, as it was in 2000, then it is equally likely that it will fall to the line and then perhaps cross below it. You can use this line as an aid in determining entry and exit points. If you buy when it is far above the line then you will experience diminished returns as compared to the 11% or better annual return expectation of those who buy when below the regression line and sell when the market is on or above the line.

A possible observation and interpretation from Figure 1 is that unlike the subprime mortgage crisis of 2008 which was a genuine crash the dot-com bubble burst of 2000 was merely an inevitable reversion to the mean.

Total Return Profile of Small Cap Stocks
A very similar result appears for the Small Cap Stock asset class. This asset class mirrors an index such as the the CRSP U.S. Small Cap Index which includes U.S. companies that fall between the bottom 2%-15% by market capitalization. [The Vanguard Small Cap Fund, VSMAX, uses this index as its benchmark.]

Figure 2 below indicates that a long-term annual total return of 14.2% can be expected by investing in a Small Cap stock index fund or similar. Again, this is given by the slope of the regression line and its Pearson Correlation Coefficient is also a robust 0.99.

Figure 2. Total Return of the Small Cap Stock Asset Class

Of course, your actual expected return depends on when you buy and when you sell. You will achieve the expected annual rate of return when you buy and sell directly on the regression line. Better returns can be achieved by buying when the value dips below the line and selling when it rises above it. The above chart indicates that right now is a good time to buy.

Total Return Profile of REITs and International Stocks
Exponential regressions can be performed for the Real- Estate Investment Trust (REIT) and International Stock asset classes. The results are shown in Figures 3 and 4 below. For REITs, the average annual rate of total return is 12.4%. For International Stocks, the value is 10.8%. The correlation coefficients for these above asset classes is 0.99 as well.

Figure 3. Total Return of the REIT Asset Class

Figure 4. Total Return of the International Stock Asset Class

The impact of mean reversion
These figures can be useful in a number of ways. First, the principle of “reversion to the mean“ indicates where the eventual value of an index will be at some time in the future. If the value is currently below its regression line (as it is in all of the above cases), then it is highly likely that it will rise to touch the line or cross it. Conversely, if it is above the regression line, it will eventually fall to the line or below it.

In discussing mean reversion, the real question is not will it ever revert to the mean, but when? It’s impossible to determine exactly that time in the future when it will revert to the mean (ie., the regression line)—it could be a matter of months or even decades. The real strength of this approach is you can improve your returns just by buying when the value is at or below the line, and selling when the value rises above it. On the other hand, if the value is currently well above the line, you may wish to wait until the value comes down, or at least take a smaller position so you don’t lose out on returns entirely.

From the above charts, you can see that if you had bought right before the 1929 market crash and held until now, your total returns in all of the asset classes would have suffered. The table below shows that your actual returns would be off by 1% – 2%, depending on asset class.

Table 1. Comparison of Expected versus Actual Returns

Historical Variations in Expected Returns
Mathematically astute readers will note that the regression lines shown are based on the data up to the present. What was the slope of the regression line in the past when less data was available? Looking at the data for the Large Cap Stocks in Figure 5, you can see that since the ending of the Great Depression in the early 1940’s the expected return as measured by the slope of the regression line climbed steadily until about 1970 when it leveled off. Since then it has been fairly stable around today’s value. A similar return profile holds for all of the four stock asset classes discussed above.

Figure 5. Historical Expected Returns for the Large Stock Asset Class

It’s interesting to look at the International Stock asset class date line (Figure 4). You will see that it appears to have taken a new and flatter path starting in 1987. Only the future will tell if this is a real effect signifying a fundamental change or whether it will revert to its current historical mean value.

Stocks vs Bonds
These stock asset classes seem to behave fairly well according to the regression line premise. However, the same cannot be said of the bond asset classes. They behave much differently. This is particularly true of the Treasury Bill asset class shown in Figure 6 below. As can be readily seen, the exponential regression line approach doesn’t do very well in representing bond performance.

This is to be expected as short-term interest rates are governed by external market forces (e.g., the Federal Reserve Bank) and not strictly by supply and demand. Being directly responsive to interest rate variations, bond performance has no single long-term trend but instead varies slowly at different rates over long periods of time. Low interest rates (and inflation) are seen through the 1960’s slowly transitioning to higher rates in the 1970’s, 1980’s, and 1990’s with lower rates and returns returning in the beginning of this century. For reference, the slope of the regression line for this bond asset class gives an expected annual return of 4.2%.

Figure 6. Total Return of the Treasury Bill Asset Class

Summary
Using regression analysis, the long-term expected returns of free floating asset classes (stocks) can be determined with a high degree of accuracy given a large enough data set. A plot of the regression line over actual return data can indicate to investors when it would be prudent to buy and when it would be prudent to sell in order to maximize portfolio returns.

Note: The graphs and charts presented here were all generated by the Portfolio Preserver (TM), a powerful software tool designed to maximize portfolio returns while minimizing risk.  Find out more at PortfolioPreserver.com.

About the Author:
Patrick Glenn is a former physicist, computer scientist, and business owner. He specializes in mathematical modeling and algorithm development and is the author of the popular CarTest 2000 automobile acceleration simulation and FinanceMaster, a personal finance management program. Today he is an advocate of financial quantitative analysis and is the designer and architect of the Portfolio Preserver software, an innovative approach to portfolio management and risk minimization.

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