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Intraday Market Notes & Observations
Utilities, bonds jump; Ag commodities, financials, tech sag
February 24, 2017

2:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2352.9/2362.7
DTX 926.3/940.5
DJIA 20735/20795
Nasdaq 5800/5840
RUT 1382.2/1399.2
VIX 11.6/12.5 (bullish)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.45 (bearish)
Average VWAPs: +94/-52 (moderately bullish!)

Gold pops above resistance while miners, base metals tumble; Tobacco lights up
February 23, 2017

2:25 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2355/2368
DTX 931.5/948.5
DJIA 20750/20850
Nasdaq 5803/5867
RUT 1384.5/1406.5
VIX 11.65/12.45 (bullish)
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.25 (neutral to bearish)
Average VWAPs: +66/-87 (rotation out of miners, machinery and into consumer staples, esp. tobacco (RAI & PM popping to new yearly highs))

Miners slipping under first line of support
February 22, 2017

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2358.3/2365.7
DTX 937.3/949.7
DJIA 20695/20795
Nasdaq 5848/5870
RUT 1399.9/1410.1
VIX 11.4/12.1 (bullish)
Trin range: 0.95 - 1.2 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +59/-66 (bull/bear teeter-totter)

Tech goes to town; Solar flares up; Real estate ramps up
February 21, 2017

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2354.9/2367.1
DTX 946.9/954.1
DJIA 20665/20755
Nasdaq 5837/5868
RUT 1400.7/1410.4
VIX 11.55/11.95 (bullish)
Trin range: 0.7 - 1.0 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +56/-74 (bulls by a hair)

Risk-off is the flavor of the day as markets relatively quiet ahead of 3 day weekend
February 17, 2017

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2339.6/2345.8
DTX 940.8/948
DJIA 20525/20585
Nasdaq 5801/5825
RUT 1392/1399.5
VIX 11.35/12.25 (falling VIX is bullish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.2 (mildly bullish to slightly bearish)
Average VWAPs: +82/-53 (bulls with the edge--for now)

Market takes a step back to digest gains
February 16, 2017

Today's Market at a Glance:
Commodity Break-outs: Molybdenum miner General Moly $GMO jumping 16%, gapping above previous resistance on >2x volume. Zach's recently upgraded the stock from a Sell to a Hold.
Global Fund Break-outs: Egypt $EGPT staging an island reversal off a three month consolidation pattern. Stock +2.3% today on 2x normal volume.

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2336.7/2351.3
DTX 941.2/952.4
DJIA 20550/20640
Nasdaq 5790/5835
RUT 1391.2/1404.8
VIX 11.75/12.8 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is still bullish overall; rising VIX in some cases is good because it allows the market more room to run)
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.15 (mildly bullish to slightly bearish)
Average VWAPs: +57/-69 (bull/bear battle)

Market firing on all cylinders as Transports best major resistance to hit all-time high
February 15, 2017

Today's Market at a Glance:
Commodity Break-outs: $CORN
Sector Break-outs: Healthcare $XLV, $IXJ; Pharma $PJP, $PPH; Consumer Staples $XLP
On the come-back trail?: Solar $TAN, Wind energy $FAN
Global stocks, especially S. America and Emerging Markets are soaring: $GML, $VWO, $EEM, $BRF, $EWZ, $ILF, $EWA

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2334.8/2346.4
DTX 945.1/955.9
DJIA 20495/20610
Nasdaq 5777/5811
RUT 1392/1400
VIX 11.45/11.9 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is still bullish overall; rising VIX in some cases is good because it allows the market more room to run)
Trin range: 0.6 - 0.8 (very bullish)
Average VWAPs: +95/-30 (bullish)

Bulls heart the market as financials, banks, tech, uranium hit new highs
February 14, 2017

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2322.2/2338.6
DTX 940.6/948.6
DJIA 20375/20495
Nasdaq 5749/5782
RUT 1386.4/1396.6
VIX 10.85/11.35 (bullish to contrarian)
Trin range: 0.65 - 0.8 (very bullish)
Average VWAPs: +125/-33 (very bullish; selling in sporting good retailers & internet stocks, buying in biotech/healthcare/pharma)





Transports testing all-time high as the other major averages continue to notch record highs; Banks and financials, steel, miners, grains, emerging markets march to new yearly highs
February 13, 2017

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2321.4/2332.6
DTX 941/951
DJIA 20325/20455
Nasdaq 5752/5771
RUT 1390.4/1399.6
VIX 11.1/11.4 (bullish)
Trin range: 0.75 - 0.9 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +64/-45 (bulls with the edge)

Everyone drinking the bull kool-aid as Dow Industrials, S&P, Nasdaq notch record highs
February 10, 2017

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2311.1/2319.9
DTX 935/941.5
DJIA 20210/20310
Nasdaq 5717/5747
RUT 1380/1390
VIX 10.55/11 (VIX near 10 is very contrarian)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.1 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +83/-37 (bullish)

*** The Stock Market Cook Book is on the road today. See y'all tomorrow! ***
February 9, 2017

China stocks jump
February 8, 2017

Market Notes 2:30pm ET: Despite the Trump's administration's tough trade talk, China stocks jumped today. Several country funds hopped over resistance, gaining between 1.3 - 1.5% on the day: HAO, FXI, GXC. All of these chart patterns are showing a breakout from an inverse head and shoulders pattern--a very bullish sign.

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2285.4/2296
DTX 915.9/925.3
DJIA 20015/20085
Nasdaq 5650/5684
RUT 1349.4/1361.6
VIX 11.15/11.85 (VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.0 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +98/-33 (bullish)

Oil & gas services (OIH, XOP, PXJ) break first lines of support
February 7, 2017

1:20 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2286.6/2299.4
DTX 919.3/927.7
DJIA 20035/20155
Nasdaq 5656/5690
RUT 1355.7/1371.9
VIX 11.05/11.7 (VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.4 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +36/-103 (bearish)

Gold (GLD), precious metals continue to rally
February 6, 2017

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2287.8/2296.2
DTX 920.4/931.2
DJIA 20005/20095
Nasdaq 5648/5668
RUT 1361/1377.3
VIX 10.95/11.85 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.7 - 0.9 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +45/-74 (mildly bearish)

Insurance (KIE), Robotics (ROBO), Semis (SOXX) hit record highs while Cocoa (NIB) slides to record low
February 3, 2017

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2288/2300
DTX 912/926
DJIA 19965/20100
Nasdaq 5648/5668
RUT 1358/1376
VIX 10.75/11.35 (VIX below 12 is entering contrarian zone but VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 1.05 - 1.4 (bearish (!))
Average VWAPs: +68/-48 (neutral with a bullish bias)

Gold & gold miners breaking out; Aussie $ (FXA) jumps
February 2, 2017

2:20 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2271.1/2285.3
DTX 904.7/916.3
DJIA 19830/19920
Nasdaq 5616/5656
RUT 1355/1364
VIX 11.5/12.35 (VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.0 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +63/-75 (neutral)

***We are in the process of upgrading our software. We expect to be fully back online later today. Thank you for your patience.***
February 1, 2017

No intraday support/resistance levels today.

Silver (SLV) rises above resistance; USD (UUP) breaks key support level
January 31, 2017

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2266.3/2276.5
DTX 913.7/927.7
DJIA 19750/19920
Nasdaq 5569/5601
RUT 1345.7/1354.3
VIX 12.2/13.1 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.95 - 1.35 (mildly bearish)
Average VWAPs: +67/-66 (selling in aerospace & defense (PPA, ITA) and financials (XLF); buying in biotech (XBI), pharma (PJP), and med devices (IHI--this is breaking out today))

Volatility jumps as markets reverse
January 30, 2017

2:25 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2266/2296
DTX 921.1/936.9
DJIA 19850/20030
Nasdaq 5570/5636
RUT 1338.5/1369.5
VIX 11.5/12.9 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.3 (neutral to bearish)
Average VWAPs: +104/-46 (buyers starting to step in)

Volatility falls to 2 1/2 year low--could a market reversal be imminent?
January 27, 2017

2:30 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2291/2299
DTX 939/948
DJIA 20070/20115
Nasdaq 5644/5667
RUT 1366/1376
VIX 10.3/10.85 (VIX under 11 is very contrarian)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.1 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +62/-68 (neutral)

Transports testing previous record high
January 26, 2017

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2294/2301
DTX 940.3/950.3
DJIA 20055/20125
Nasdaq 5642/5670
RUT 1373.9/1384.1
VIX 10.65/11.15 (VIX under 11 is very contrarian but VIX under 15 is still bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.15 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +50/-76 (buying in cruise lines (RCL, CUK) and some media names; sell-off in investment banks and some machinery)

Banner day for the bulls as Dow finally breaks 20k; Nasdaq pops over 5600; S&P tests 2300
January 25, 2017

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2288.9/2299.1
DTX 931.8/944.2
DJIA 19995/20105
Nasdaq 5634/5656
RUT 1371.1/1383.7
VIX 10.45/11.05 (VIX falling under 11 is very contrarian but VIX under 15 is still bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.95 - 1.25 (neutral to slightly bearish (!))
Average VWAPs: +75/-59 (bears gaining presence)

Bull charge pushes S&P and Nasdaq to record highs
January 24, 2017

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2267/2282
DTX 915/931
DJIA 19785/19945
Nasdaq 5558/5602
RUT 1348/1375
VIX 11.25/11.75 (VIX falling under 12 is contrarian but VIX under 15 is still bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.7 - 1.1 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +123/-38 (bullish)

Frontier market etf (FM) pops to a new high
January 23, 2017

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2256.2/2271.8
DTX 908/922
DJIA 19735/19835
Nasdaq 5523/5564
RUT 1338.9/1353.1
VIX 11.6/12.6 (VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 1.0 - 1.3 (bearish)
Average VWAPs: +50/-50 (lackluster volume; some selling in aerospace & airlines)

Retailers getting marked down
January 19, 2017

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2262.7/2274.3
DTX 913.5/926.5
DJIA 19720/19820
Nasdaq 5532/5572
RUT 1344.3/1360.7
VIX 12.15/12.85 (VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.55 - 0.7 (bullish to contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +34/-96 (selling pressure in retailers)

Market stuck in neutral pending inauguration
January 18, 2017

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2264/2271
DTX 903.5/916.5
DJIA 19740/19830
Nasdaq 5533/5553
RUT 1350/1357
VIX 12.15/12.85 (rising VIX is bearish but under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.1 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +54/-58 (a whole lotta nuttin' going on)

Grains (JJG, WEAT, CORN, SOYB) gain; Gold (GLD) breaking out; Dollar (UUP) plummets
January 17, 2017

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2265.5/2274.5
DTX 910.1/918.9
DJIA 19800/19885
Nasdaq 5535/5558
RUT 1356.6/1371.1
VIX 11.65/12.3 (VIX under 12 is contrarian)
Trin range: 0.65 - 0.85 (bullish!)
Average VWAPs: +69/-76 (neutral; some selling in semiconductors & in casual dining names)

Nasdaq, internet (FDN), cloud computing (SKYY) all notch all-time highs
January 13, 2017

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2272.1/2278.7
DTX 915.2/922.2
DJIA 19860/19950
Nasdaq 5557/5584
RUT 1361.4/1376.6
VIX 11.05/11.55 (VIX under 12 is contrarian)
Trin range: 1.0 - 1.4 (bearish)
Average VWAPs: +58/-54 (rotation out of banks and financials; otherwise a fairly low volume day)

Gold (GLD, IAU) pops above resistance; Biotech, pharma rally following yesterday's beat-down
January 12, 2017

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2254.3/2271.7
DTX 904.7/917.9
DJIA 19770/19930
Nasdaq 5497/5547
RUT 1345/1373
VIX 11.2/12.6 (VIX under 12 is contrarian)
Trin range: 0.8 - 0.95 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +114/-37 (bullish)

Lithium (LIT) breaking out to a new high/Gold (GLD) testing key resistance/Biotech, pharma (XBI, PJP) tank on Trump remarks
January 11, 2017

2:25 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2260.8/2274.6
DTX 911/921
DJIA 19835/19965
Nasdaq 5521/5564
RUT 1364.5/1375.5
VIX 11.45/12.25 (VIX under 12 is contrarian)
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.2 (neutral to mildly bearish)
Average VWAPs: +72/-88 (bull/bear seesaw)

Coffee (JO), Uranium (URA) jump
January 10, 2017

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2265.3/2282.1
DTX 902.5/916.5
DJIA 19835/19960
Nasdaq 5528/5569
RUT 1357.7/1374.3
VIX 11.3/11.9 (VIX under 12 is contrarian)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.2 (neutral to mildly bearish)
Average VWAPs: +61/-77 (neutral)

Mexico funds (EWW, MXF) tumble to multi-year lows
January 9, 2017

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2269.2/2276.8
DTX 901.9/909.1
DJIA 19895/19945
Nasdaq 5517/5547
RUT 1356.5/1368.5
VIX 11.25/12.1 (VIX under 12 is contrarian)
Trin range: 0.5 - 0.8 (bullish (!))
Average VWAPs: +55/-68 (neutral)

S&P, Nasdaq hit all-time highs--will the Dow follow suit?
January 6, 2017

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2264/2286
DTX 901.4/917.6
DJIA 19835/20025
Nasdaq 5483/5544
RUT 1367/1375
VIX 10.85/11.75 (falling VIX is bullish but VIX under 12 is contrarian)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.15 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +98/-48 (bullish; buying pressure in internet stocks)

Gold pops/Dollar plops
January 5, 2017

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2260.5/2271.5
DTX 901.4/914.6
DJIA 19810/19950
Nasdaq 5464/5496
RUT 1366.3/1387.7
VIX 11.4/12.2 (VIX under 12 is becoming contrarian)
Trin range: 0.7 - 0.85 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +71/-67 (neutral: rotation out of financials and into REITs and internet stocks)

Ag commodities (BAL, JO, NIB, SGG), REITs, Junk Bonds moving higher
January 4, 2017

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2261.6/2274.4
DTX 904.3/910.8
DJIA 19880/19940
Nasdaq 5440/5480
RUT 1376.6/1388.4
VIX 11.65/12.55 (falling VIX is bullish but VIX under 12 is becoming contrarian)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.4 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +91/-43 (bullish)

Platinum jumps/Telecom (IYZ, VOX) rallies to multiyear highs
January 3, 2017

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2238.1/2263.9
DTX 898/917
DJIA 19720/19940
Nasdaq 5377/5453
RUT 1354/1375
VIX 13/14 (VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.65 - 0.9 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +47/-108 (bearish)

*** The 2016 Intraday Market Notes have been archived. ***
December 31, 2016

Recent Articles
Tra-la or ruh-roh?
May 9, 2016 at 12:53 pm

I know it may sound unthinkable, but there are times when even market technicians can’t predict the future direction of the S&P. One of those times just so happens to be right now. There are two moving average cross-overs currently flashing conflicting messages–one bullish and one extremely bearish.

Let’s take a quick look at both.

SPX Golden Cross

In the bullish corner we have the recent formation of a Golden Cross in the S&P’s daily chart. For those of you unfamiliar with the concept, it is when the 50 day moving average (50 dma) moves above the 200 dma on a daily chart. Historically, it has shown to be a fairly reliable indicator of a change in market direction from bearish to bullish. From the below chart we can see that a Golden Cross formed around April 26.

In the bearish corner, we have what I’m going to term a Correction Cross because no one else has yet named it. This is when the 50 dma moves below the 100 dma on a weekly chart, not a daily one. A Correction Cross has formed only twice in recent history. The first was at the end of beginning of April, 2001 which heralded the tech correction. The second time was in late June, 2008 at the beginning stages of the mortgage crisis. Here’s what the chart looks like today:

SPX Correction Cross

The above chart shows that it may be a bit too early to call a Correction Cross, but it’s ominously close. What does this all mean? Well, the only thing I know for sure is that right now I don’t know anything for sure. For this reason, I would recommend that sitting on the sidelines may be the most prudent place for cautious investors , at least until market direction is confirmed, one way or the other.

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