February 3, 2012
1:35pm ET: Overall market tone: The better than expected employment figures out this morning gave a big boost to the market. Helping it along was increased factory orders. Both figures are showing that the economy is indeed in recovery and perhaps the Fed will have to amend their promise of not raising interest rates for a few years.

With the economic recovery now more than just a hope, it could well spell the end of free money--that is, if you can get. And if you can, now may be your last chance to refinance your home at these historically low levels or prompt you into buying if you don't already own. Yes, the banks have more foreclosures to unload so there's no immediate rush but it doesn't hurt to start looking. Folks considering second homes or possibly a place to retire might wish to take a look at Florida where I hear the prices are terribly depressed. Arizona and Nevada are attractive, too. Plus, all of these states have little or no income taxes--a retiree's dream!

1:20 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1326/1349
DTX 530.5/540.5
DJIA 12705/12925
Nasdaq 2885/2915
OEX 599/609
VIX 16.75/17.15
Trin range: 0.7 - 1. 0 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +55/-38 (moderately bullish)

February 2, 2012

1:55pm ET: Overall market tone: The major averages are spending the day digesting recent gains. There seems to be a rotational shift from the blue chips into the smaller tech names. How do we know that? We can see that the chart of the tech-heavy Nasdaq, which used to lag the Dow utilities and transports as well as lagging the S&P, is now leading them. We need to see leadership in tech and financials (which are also doing well) for the rally to continue.

FYI: It appears that Punxsatawney Phil's shadow scared him into six more weeks of hibernation. Let's hope that prediction doesn't apply to the stock market!

1:35 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1321/1329
DTX 528/535
DJIA 12675/12735
Nasdaq 2847/2868
OEX 597/600
VIX 18.05/18.55
Trin range: 0.75 - 1.0 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +33/-63 (moderately bearish)

February 1, 2012

1:45pm ET: Overall market tone: The major averages were off to the races as good economic numbers released earlier this morning cheered investors. Market internals reflect the sentiment with a falling VIX and Trin indicating continued bullishness.

The really BIG NEWS today is the rumor that Facebook will file its IPO papers with the public offering commencing in a month or so, according to Wall Street cognoscenti. With the Occupy Wall Street sentiment so pervasive, don't you think that Facebook could show its 800 million users a little love by offering us some of its shares at the IPO price instead of those greedy investment bankers who are already wealthier than god? I mean without us, there'd be no them...right? Right on, bro!

1:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1312.5/1332.5
DTX 529.5/538.5
DJIA 12635/12845
Nasdaq 2825/2860
OEX 594/603
VIX 17.9/18.8
Trin range: 0.6 - 0.9 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +67/-27 (bullish)

January 31, 2012

1:45pm ET: Overall market tone: Following a brief rally on the open, the major averages sold off hard and are now in the process of recovering most of their lost ground. The Nasdaq is now in the green with the Dow Transports trailing only by inches. The mid-morning rally is supported by strengthening internals including the VIX which has somehow managed to stay under 20, the cause-for-some-concern level.

End of Month Report: 2012 began with quite a bang: SPX +4%, DTX +5%, DJIA +3%, Nasdaq +5.7%, VIX -15%. Presidential election years are historically bullish and let's hope that this year is no exception.

Trade Note: Internet behemoth Amazon (AMZN) reports today after the close. I'm seeing heavy volume in a wide range of option strikes implying that the investment community is expecting earnings to move the stock quite a bit (as much as 40 points in either direction). This is one earnings report you can bet everyone will be watching!

1:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1306.5/1321.5
DTX 526/535
DJIA 12540/12720
Nasdaq 2790/2830
OEX 590/598
VIX 19/20.2
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.8 (bearish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +39/-45 (neutral)

January 30, 2012

2:00pm ET: Overall market tone: The major averages are slowly recovering following this morning's drop. Internals are leaning towards the bullish camp but there's not a lot of conviction on either side as shown by the lackluster positive and negative VWAPs. (FYI, VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price which is a fancy term for a measure of institutional interest. Strong VWAP values are 80+ on either side.) For the first time in over a week the VIX popped back over 20, but it doesn't look as if it has any intention of staying there. In support, the Trin is falling, too. One technical indication that the bulls have regained control following a downturn is when the 50 dma crosses above the 200 dma. This event is termed a golden cross . Right now, the S&P is at this juncture while the DTX (a leading market indicator), the Dow Industrials (DJIA), and the OEX have all crossed it. A couple of days of positive action will push the SPX above it allowing the bulls to run rampant.

Bullish Note: In an article appearing on both the Bloomberg website (see below for the link) and phone app (which is where I saw it and which is an excellent app, FYI), the authors make the case that the market hasn't been this underpriced since the Nixon administration. Citing earnings & historical valuation metrics, the authors state that the S&P is 30% undervalued at its current level (1718 is the target level). Another bullish factor is the extreme pessism pervading the investing atmosphere. In a quote from the article: After two significant bear markets, the flash crash and the lost decade, many have simply said, No mas, Howard Ward, who helps oversee $35 billion at Gamco Investors Inc. in Rye, New York, said in an e-mail on Jan. 24. Of course, bull markets have a history of climbing a wall of worry. And it is happening again.

Comparing current P/E levels with historical ones, many companies are extremely undervalued. In particular, the article cites Cigna's (CI) current P/E as 8.1 compared with its historical P/E of 24.4 even as profits have risen over 16% on average for the past two years. Again quoting the article: The U.S. environment looks quite good both economically and in terms of earnings, Hayes Miller, who helps oversee about $46 billion as the Boston-based head of asset allocation in North America at Baring Asset Management Inc., said in a Jan. 25 phone interview. It's going to be a long clean-up, but we do expect markets to be up this year.

[To view the complete article, click here: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-30/longest-s-p-500-valuation-slump-since-nixon-discounting-record-u-s-profit.html]

If the professionals are going long, shouldn't you be, too?

1:30 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1298/1316
DTX 528/534
DJIA 12530/12660
Nasdaq 2782/2820
OEX 589/595
VIX 19.3/20.3
Trin range: 1.0 - 1. 5 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +43/-33 (neutral to slightly bullish)

January 27, 2012

2:00pm ET: Overall market tone: After the rampant bullishness following the Fed's comments to keep interest rates low for the next two years, the market is taking a breather. But the rest may not be for long as right now the Dow Transports (DTX), considered to be a leading indicator of market direction, is trading to the upside. (It and the Nazzie are the only two trading in the green today.) Although elevated, the Trin is falling along with the VIX telling us that the bulls are gaining control. If this situation holds, there's an excellent chance the SPX will end the week in the green. Fingers crossed!

Trade Note: The metals have all benefitted from the Fed's decision to maintain the status quo for the next couple of years. (It's risk-on mode meaning commodities & stocks will rise as the dollar drops which it is indeed doing.) In particular, the platinum exchange traded notes and funds have been exhibiting interesting behavior. For example, today the futures-based platinum ETN, the PTM, jumped 7% while its physically held counterpart, the PPLT, advanced less than 1%. This makes for a very interesting arbitrage opportunity that advanced traders may wish to look at. For further info, please read this excellent article defining this particular trade: http://seekingalpha.com/article/320569-unique-arbitrage-opportunity-in-platinum

1:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1311/1318
DTX 529/535
DJIA 12605/12735
Nasdaq 2797/2817
OEX 593.5/596.5
VIX 18.35/19.15
Trin range: 1.0 - 1. 6 (neutral to bearish)
Average VWAPs: +41/-35 (neutral)

January 25 & 26, 2012

3:00pm ET: Special Note: There will be no intraday support/resistance levels published today nor any market notes. The regularly scheduled programming will return on Friday (1/27/12).

January 24, 2012

2:10pm ET: Overall market tone: Yesterday it seemed as if the bulls had left the party but their absence was short-lived as they stepped in to halt this morning's sell-off. A rising Trin and a falling VIX are technically divergent signs which likely explains why the major averages are stuck in neutral as of this writing. So, which indicator is correct? We'll just have to wait until the close to find out.

FYI: Dr. Kris is on a business trip in New York which is why this column is brief today and may not even appear tomorrow.

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1306/1316
DTX 514.5/524.5
DJIA 12615/12685
Nasdaq 2766/2794
OEX 591.25/595.25
VIX 19.1/20
Trin range: 1.0 - 1.45
Average VWAPs: +47/-33 (neutral)

January 23, 2012

1:05pm ET: Overall market tone: The market opened with a flourish but the rapid gains were digested even faster. This price action is saying that there are no more buyers stepping in to further this rally. How this shows up on a chart is by a candlestick with a shallow body and a long wick, also called a tail. When buying volume dries up, a topping tail is formed. Conversely, when selling pressure disappears and buyers step in, a bottoming tail is formed. If the market doesn't firm up before the close, expect further downside as it would appear that the bulls have left the ring.

12:45 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1308/1322
DTX 520.5/530.5
DJIA 12655/12765
Nasdaq 2760/2805
OEX 592.5/598.5
VIX 18.7/19.5
Trin range: 0.75 - 1.05
Average VWAPs: +15/-80 (bearish)

January 19, 2012

1:35pm ET: Overall market tone: The major averages are off to the races with the DTX leading the pack. That's the first bull scoop in this triple decker cone. The second scoop is that the financials (XLF) and tech (XLK) are poised to take out their bases. This rally needs their support if it's to have legs. To top it off, the VIX has finally broken 20 which is the level generally regarded as the dividing line between a stable market and an unstable one. It hasn't been this low since last July before the Euro-debt crisis blew-up. All of these signs indicate that the bulls are now taking over. Be long or be wrong!

Trade Note: Take advantage of this rally by buying an index tracking stock (QQQ, DIA, SPY, etc) or bullish options strategies on them. I'd select calls with strikes as far out as November, presidential election time.

Note on yesterday's platinum comment: Boy, did I nail that call on PTM yesterday! It's down over 6% today. Hey, everybody gets lucky once in a while...

1:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1308/1317.5
DTX 522/536
DJIA 12565/12635
Nasdaq 2770/2800
OEX 592.5/596
VIX 19/20.9
Trin range: 0.55 - 0.90 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +50/-44 (neutral)

January 20, 2012

1:25pm ET: Overall market tone: The market took a bit of a respite this morning with all of the major averages falling except for the Dow Industrials which moved up quite nicely thanks to the tech bellweathers IBM, MSFT, and INTC all reporting good earnings. This is really good news for the bulls who look to be unstoppable at the moment. You may be thinking Hey, what about Google's disappointing earnings? To that I say that reaction to the news seems overblown. Google is not just a search engine anymore; it's diversifying into many different areas which have not yet paid-off, a fact that many investors are overlooking. If you're a Google-head, now would be a good time to add a share or two to your portfolio. (I'd wait to see if it falls a little further before stepping in--just in case.) Note that Google is not a member of the Dow 30--yet.

1:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1308.5/1314.5
DTX 525.75/530.25
DJIA 12620/13780
Nasdaq 2776/2786
OEX 592.5/594.5
VIX 19.1/19.9
Trin range: 1. - 1.7 (falling Trin at this moment is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +32/-54

January 19, 2012

1:35pm ET: Overall market tone: The major averages are off to the races with the DTX leading the pack. That's the first bull scoop in this triple decker cone. The second scoop is that the financials (XLF) and tech (XLK) are poised to take out their bases. This rally needs their support if it's to have legs. To top it off, the VIX has finally broken 20 which is the level generally regarded as the dividing line between a stable market and an unstable one. It hasn't been this low since last July before the Euro-debt crisis blew-up. All of these signs indicate that the bulls are now taking over. Be long or be wrong!

Trade Note: Take advantage of this rally by buying an index tracking stock (QQQ, DIA, SPY, etc) or bullish options strategies on them. I'd select calls with strikes as far out as November, presidential election time.

Note on yesterday's platinum comment: Boy, did I nail that call on PTM yesterday! It's down over 6% today. Hey, everybody gets lucky once in a while...

1:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1308/1317.5
DTX 522/536
DJIA 12565/12635
Nasdaq 2770/2800
OEX 592.5/596
VIX 19/20.9
Trin range: 0.55 - 0.90 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +50/-44 (neutral)

January 18, 2012

1:30pm ET: Overall market tone: The major averages are poking their heads above the clouds set last August. The sector board is awash in a sea of green punctuated by advances made in the home building and retail sectors. But the biggest gainer for the past several days has been platinum. Highlighted in this column last Thursday, the PTM-- a futures-based product--has advanced nearly 25%! It broke a couple of minor resistance levels and is testing $22, an area of major resistance. This stock has come so far so fast that this $22 level could prove to be a very tough hurdle to clear. Plus the fact that options action isn't as brisk as one might expect along with the fact that the PTM's physically-held etf counterpart, the PPLT, is not experiencing the same dramatic move both indicate that perhaps there's little fuel left to stoke a continued rally.

1:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1281/1309
DTX 515.5/524.5
DJIA 12460/12580
Nasdaq 2730/2767
OEX 585/593
VIX 20.6/23.4
Trin range: 0.55 - 0.80 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +56/-31 (moderately bullish but bulls are losing steam)

January 17, 2012

1:40pm ET: Overall market tone: After all the turmoil arising from the Eurozone this weekend, it's amazing that the US market actually gained ground. Today's movement saw all of the major averages hitting new highs (the SPX breached 1300 for the first time since August--woo hoo!) except for the Dow Transports (DTX) which decided to be Mr. Poopy-pants and move in the opposite direction. As this index tends to be a leading indicator of overall direction, if it doesn't perk up by the end of the day, I'd expect the other major averages to retrace some of today's gains tomorrow.

Right now, market internals are stuck in the neutral zone. Despite today's bullish action on the open, the VWAPs are surprisingly muted showing lack of conviction on either the buy or the sell side. Under conditions like these, even a small news gust can move the market ship in either direction. What with the continuing Euro debt crisis (and the very real threat of a disorderly Greek default), the race for the Republican presidential nomination, and the rest of earnings season still ahead, there are a lot of directions from which a wind can blow. It'll be interesting to see where our ship sails.

1:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1297/1303
DTX 514.5/520.5
DJIA 12505/12575
Nasdaq 2731/2743
OEX 596.5/590.5
VIX 20.7/21.1
Trin range: 0.75 - 1.0 (neutral/mildly bullish)
Average VWAPs: +34/-38 (neutral--not much conviction on either side right now)

January 13, 2012

1:50pm ET: Overall market tone: It looks like Friday the 13th is earning its scary reputation as the market FINALLY took a respite. The rising Trin yesterday gave us an indication that it was coming and the threat of sovereign downgrades in the Eurozone provided the media talking heads a reason for today's sell-off. Hey, so what else is new? The major ratings agencies have been threatening to do this for months.

One piece of good news that has been downplayed in the media is the fact that the overall mood in this country is brightening. Today's consumer confidence number rose for the fifth straight month and it's now at its highest level since last May. The bad news is that the balance of trade is tilting towards the import side. In a statement made to MSN Money this morning: The external outlook does not bode well for U.S. exports, as a deceleration in global growth will coincide with a stronger U.S. dollar due to lingering financial concerns regarding Europe's sovereign debt turbulences, Martin Schwerdtfeger, senior economist at TD Bank Group, wrote in a note.

The takeaway from this is to realize that it will be the large multinational corporations that will be hurt the most from a global deceleration. If you're overweight these, then I'd suggest shifting some funds into small and midcap companies with limited global exposure. (See Trade Idea below.)

Trade Idea of the Day: If you'd like to increase your exposure to domestic small & midcap stocks, look at the IWN, the exchange traded fund representing the Russell 2000 value stocks. Besides limiting your exposure to global deceleration, the index is heavily weighted in financials (23%) and real estate (13%)--two sectors that have been in the dumper and are expected to outperform most other sectors this year. The fund also yields 1.3%, a bonus feature. For you options traders, the stock has a moderately liquid options field with the February and May strikes being the most active. There are no listed options further out than August, unfortunately.

1:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1276/1295
DTX 508/521
DJIA 12290/12470
Nasdaq 2690/2723
OEX 577/587
VIX 21.1/22.4
Trin range: 1.30 - 1.75 (Trin is still rising which is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +25/-58 (mildly bearish)

January 12, 2012

1:50pm ET: Overall market tone: The market is still moving in a narrow trading range busy digesting recent gains. The overall mood today is mixed; the Trin is moving up which is a bearish sign while the VIX is moving down. Although this divergence seems confusing, what it's telling us is that investors have, for the most part, taken into account the Euro debt crisis and in fact, this divergence can be viewed as a decoupling between our market and the Eurozone woes. This is really great news! Let's hope that tensions in the Middle East don't take up where Europe left off...

Trade Note: Metals mavens may wish to look at platinum which has taken off in the past couple of days. There are two exchange traded funds that deal in the white metal. The first is PPLT which physically holds the metal much like the GLD. The fund has risen 6% since the beginning of the week. The other--and more volatile--fund is the PTM which is based on the three-month futures contract. Shares have risen 10% since Monday, making 8% of its gains today. Platinum has been trading lower than gold, a situation that rarely occurs. If gold is poised to rally (as many think it is and if tensions in the Middle East ramp-up and the Euro-debt problem intensifies, there is a strong case for gold going up) then the theory is that platinum can only outperform its golden brother. Note that only the PTM is optionable.

1:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1286/1297
DTX 517.5/522.5
DJIA 12385/12475
Nasdaq 2697/2723
OEX 583/588
VIX 21/22
Trin range: 1.1 - 1.4 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +59/-43 (mildly bullish but bearish sentiment is growing)

January 11, 2012

1:25pm ET: Overall market tone: The market is busy today doing a lot of nothing. The major avgs are caught in a tight trading range with internals showing an upward bias. After the recent rally, a respite is welcomed.

On track towards this year's prediction of 1425 on the SPX given on January 4th, an analyst came out today with support for a US recovery. Talking to MSN Money: Counterbalancing global risks are the strong fundamentals coming out of the U.S., said Doug Cote, chief market strategist with ING Investment Management. In particular, Cote noted improvements in domestic manufacturing and consumer confidence. Fourth-quarter earnings are on track to achieve the highest level for the fourth quarter in the history of the S&P 500, he added. How can you be out of the market when corporate profits are hitting an all-time record?

All I can add is Amen!

1:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1285.5/1292.5
DTX 515.5/519
DJIA 12400/12460
Nasdaq 2691/2709
OEX 582.75/585.75
VIX 21/21.25
Trin range: 0.6 - 0.8 (neutral to mildly bullish)
Average VWAPs: +45/-38 (neutral)

January 10, 2012

1:35pm ET: Overall market tone: The major averages popped on the open and have been languishing since. The internals are looking good except for the VWAPs which are not jibbing with the rest. There seems to be a bit of institutional pressure keeping the lid on this rally...or perhaps the high negative VWAPs are an indication of sector rotation. Looking more closely, it appears that there's a massive exodus out of oil & gas and to a lesser extent, hotels and restaurants. The money isn't appearing to going into anything else in particular, although retail is seeing some decent action. As far as how the rest of the day will unfold, it appears likely that the major averages will continue to drift barring any external stimulus.

One thing worth noting today is that the VIX is flirting with its psychologically critical 20 level. This is the line between a stable and unstable market. During periods of heightened VIX activity, markets typically fall. A return to a stable level means that investors are fairly confident that the chance of outside forces upsetting the apple cart are minimal.

Today's Trade of the Day:
The cocoa etf, NIB, bounced dramatically off its multiyear low and is up 8% to $32. The stock was trading at an all-time high of $53 just a year ago. Today's pop is due to concerns that a strike in Nigeria, the world's fourth largest cocoa producer, will disrupt supply. Also, adverse weather conditions in the Ivory Coast, another major supplier, could threaten supply. One analyst following the commodity thinks that cocoa has been oversold and was due for a rebound. If you'd like to add a little sweet something to your portfolio, now would be the time to get into NIB. FYI, there's also another cocoa exchange traded fund, CHOC, but it's very thinly traded (around 500 shares/day). Neither one has options. [Note: Adding a commodity or two to your portfolio is a good diversification move, especially since agricultural commodities in particular have little correlation to the overall stock market.]

1:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1280/1300
DTX 510.5/521.5
DJIA 12395/12525
Nasdaq 2695/2715
OEX 582/589
VIX 20/20.5
Trin range: 0.70 - 1.05 (neutral to mildly bullish)
Average VWAPs: +24/-64 (mildly bearish)

January 9, 2012

1:40pm ET: Overall market tone: The Dow, Dow Transports, and the S&P 500 have been stuck in neutral for the past four days while the Nasdaq has been slowly playing catch-up. It's the only one out of the group that hasn't bested its October highs--yet. Maybe the hype surrounding the Consumer Electronics Show (remember when it was called Comdex?) taking place this week in Las Vegas will help the Nazzie over this hurdle.

Earnings season officially begins today and will continue for the next couple of weeks. The tight trading ranges and low volume seen in recent days could be traders adopting a wait and see stance. Perhaps they want to hear companies' 2012 earnings and revenue projections before proceeding with their trading plans. For example, Alcoa (AA) kicked off earnings season today by citing lower projected demand for aluminum. What this could mean is that global growth is slowing down. But one shouldn't judge the health of an economic recovery solely on the outlook of one company as there are many other variables that play into the equation.

Today's Trades of the Day:
#1. Bristol Myers (BMY) is offering $26 in cash per share of Inhibitex (INHX). With INHX stock now trading at $23.73, a purchase at this price would yield a very nice 9% ROI (return on investment) at very low risk. Note that no closing date was cited in the press release but I'm expecting the typical 3-4 month period needed to satisfy the legal requirements and for stock tendering.
#2. Pansoft's (PSOF) chairman is offering $3.76 for the 36% of the outstanding stock his holding company doesn't own in an attempt to take the company private. A special committee has been formed to evaluate the proposal (the company's board can't do it for obvious reasons) and there's no guarantee that the offer will be approved or consummated. In this regard, this makes this arbitrage a high risk play but the 20% potential return (with the stock currently trading around $3.13) is very attractive. The chairman seems very serious about taking his company private and I'd definitely throw some mad money at this one.

1:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1274.5/1282.5
DTX 505.8/509.8
DJIA 12335/12405
Nasdaq 2663/2687
OEX 579/583
VIX 21.2/21.8
Trin range: 0.60 - 0.95 (neutral to mildly bullish)
Average VWAPs: +38/-34 (neutral)

January 6, 2012

1:45pm ET: Overall market tone: The actual jobs numbers released this morning failed to buoy the market which surprised me. I would have thought that the good numbers would have cheered investors but maybe the early boost in the market this week was just a matter of portfolio reshuffling. That could well be part of the case but there is strong evidence that the economy is recovering and our chances of falling back into a recession are exceedingly slim.

For the third day in a row, the major averages rebounded after dropping sharply on the open. The difference today is that they don't seem to be holding their gains. The Trin is moving higher and the VWAPs are growing increasingly negative reflecting this mid-session weakness. Hey, after the Santa Claus rally which juiced a 75 point gain in the SPX, it's natural for the market to want to take a short nap.

On the bullish front, the VIX continues to fall. This means that fear is easing which is a good macro sign for the market. If this market is going to go down, though, it's not going to be for long. Signs that the economy is improving are becoming just too obvious.

1:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1273/1285
DTX 505.5/513.5
DJIA 12335/12455
Nasdaq 2659/2687
OEX 578.5/584.5
VIX 20.55/21.75
Trin range: 1.0 - 1.45 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +36/-53 (VWAPs are growing increasingly negative which is bearish)

January 5, 2012

1:15pm ET: Overall market tone: So far, today's market action is a carbon copy of yesterday's. The major averages still are showing signs of advancing as the Trin is not in overbought territory, the VWAPs are still leaning heavily towards the positive side, and the VIX has dropped below yesterday's low.

We got two groots today. (A groot is short for a green shoot pointing to economic recovery.) The first was shown by increasing employment figures and decreasing jobless claims. These data are preliminary, though, and we won't know the real numbers until they're released tomorrow.

The second groot, and an even bigger one in my opinion, popped up this morning. Both the bank etf (KBE) and the regional bank etf (KRE) broke major resistance. This is a strong indication that a recovery is indeed taking place. With banks and financials so beaten down, now would be a good time to begin adding them to your portfolio as it looks to be an early spring--at least marketwise.

1:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1265/1281
DTX 500/510
DJIA 12285/12465
Nasdaq 2630/2665
OEX 576/583
VIX 22/23.1
Trin range: 0.55 - 0.80 (bullish)

January 4, 2012

1:20pm ET: Overall market tone: The market continued with the weakness going into yesterday's close but after an hour of decline traders declared that enough was enough causing the market to reverse course. As of this writing, the major averages are back to even with the DTX trading in the green. Rumors from Europe that Spain needs more money to restructure its banks couldn't keep the market down for long but the fact that the Eurozone's troubles are still weighing in is a bummer, to say the least. More debt auctions are coming up this week which could also affect market action.

I still believe, though, that the recovery in the US is well underway and if we jettison some of the legal impediments to employment, we could see much faster growth. I also believe the market will continue to rise and I'm keeping 1425 on the SPX within my crosshairs as this year's goal.

12:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1268/1281
DTX 502/509
DJIA 12340/12440
Nasdaq 2627/2658
OEX 576.75/582.75
VIX 22.35/23.75
Trin range: 0.60 - 1.20 (Trin is falling which is bullish)

January 3, 2012

1:30pm ET: Overall market tone: The market rang in the New Year on a bullish note but it appears that the ebullience is already waning. It's as if investors placed all of their chips on the table and then left. What bothers me a bit about this morning's rally is the fact that the VIX didn't drop as much as one might have expected leaving me to think that this rally could be a one day event. How the market performs going into the close will be a telling factor on how it performs for the next few days.

If you notice, there is no intraday support/resistance levels for the Nasdaq. Today was one of those days that it didn't give me anything to go on. To arrive at the numbers that I do, I need to know at least one level (either support or resistance) and have an established pivot point. Mr. Nasdaq didn't provide me with any of these. My guesstimate would be that its support level is near last Friday's close (2607) with resistance at today's high of 2666.

The beginning of any new year is the time when everyone makes their predictions (read: guesstimates). I saw a fascinating blog piece saying that price behavior can be fractally modeled and that the December price movement in the SPX is fractally similar to last April's blow-off top. (See http://www.marketanthropology.com/2012/01/fractals.html for more info.) In that regard, they feel that 1300 on the SPX is a viable target. I'm going to one-up them by noting that since the market has been rallying since the March 2009 low combined with a VIX that has much further to fall (plus other technical considerations), a target of 1425 by year's end on the SPX is quite achievable. If a Republican administration gets elected, we could even see 1500. If that turns out to be the case, 2012 will indeed have been a very good year.

12:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1259/1290
DTX 502.5/516.5
DJIA 12220/12500
Nasdaq ?
OEX 571/586
VIX 22.5/23.3
Trin range: 0.65 - 0.80 (neutral to bullish)

December 30, 2011

1:30pm ET: Overall market tone: The market went into 2011 like a lamb and is exiting like a lamb. Judging by these two data points alone one might conclude that 2011 was a boring year but as they say, you can't judge a book by its covers. Who could have predicted the Arab uprising, the Japanese tsunami and subsequent nuclear meltdown, the European debt debacle, and our own struggles with raising the debt ceiling? All of these events contributed to a volatile market fraught with fear. The good news is that the US came out of it smelling like the least dirty shirt in the laundry basket. The Dow Industrials actually ended up with the S&P coming out flat (not including the dividend). Compare that with the performance of France (-19%), Italy (-27%), and Greece (-61%), or Japan (-18%), China (-19%), and India (-23%).

So, what do you think 2012 has in store for the market? If it's anything like 2011, we're in for another rollercoaster ride but I don't think most folks could handle more of the same. Most economists are predicting 2012 to be a year of slower growth, with housing and unemployment being the major economic drags. Supposing we're not blindsided by any further uprisings or natural disasters, the most market-moving event this year could be the Presidential election. The race for the Republican nomination should be very interesting to say the least. A Republican president will most likely be a catalyst for a strong market rally.

Closing out 2011, we at the Stock Market Cook Book would like to thank all of our readers for their loyalty and support. Many blessings to you and yours in the New Year!

12:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1250/1265
DTX 503/507
DJIA 12250/12290
Nasdaq 2609/2617
OEX 571/574
VIX 22.8/23.1
Trin range: 0.75 - 1.25 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +25/-23 (neutral)

December 29, 2011

1:10pm ET: Overall market tone: At yesterday's close, the Trin was 2.7 which is well into contrarian territory so today's rally should come as no surprise. It's nice when things actually work out the way they're supposed to!

In my notes to subscribers yesterday, I mentioned that gold was on the verge of breaking down. It did just that today with all of the gold etfs--SGOL, GLD, IAU, PHYS--breaking major support. Gold bugs are viewing today's action as a buying opportunity but I think that's a fool's (gold) bet. The charts are telling me that this is the beginning of a major breakdown, so if you are long the yellow metal, it would behoove you to at least buy some put protection. (Don't use the inverse etfs for long-term hedging as they are meant to be short-term mechanisms only.) The largest gold etf, the GLD, is showing minor support levels at the $5 marks and major support at the $10 levels. Note also that platinum is now hitting a new yearly low along with many gold miners. All of these factors are strong indications of a breakdown in the metals trade.

12:45 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1250/1265
DTX 497/505
DJIA 12150/12290
Nasdaq 2592.5/2612.5
OEX 567/574
VIX 22.5/23.5
Trin range: 0.55 - 1.0 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +32/-22 (mildly bullish on very low volume)

December 28, 2011

12:50pm ET: Overall market tone: It appears as if the Santa Claus rally has run out of steam and today the market is taking a break. But with the Trin already in contrarian land, this breather could be very short-lived. Volume is still extremely light and movement is being fueled by fumes but that doesn't mean there are no money-making opportunities.

The risk-on trade appears to be losing steam especially in the metals market. Today the rare earths and the white metals were hit hard. The platinum etfs (PPLT, PTM) made new lows while the SLV, the silver etf, broke $27.50 major resistance. If you missed the big move up in these metals, you can extract your revenge by playing the short side. The SLV has robust options and I'd look to buy the Jan 2013 near-the-money puts or put spreads for all you options players. (You can finance the cost by selling a bear-call credit spread against it.)

The euro (FXE) finally broke through $130. Its next major area of support is around $125. People seem surprised at the move but I think it's been overvalued (compared with the dollar) for a long time. Currency traders may wish to take advantage of the euro's weakness here.

12:40 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1250/1265
DTX 494/506
DJIA 12140/12300
Nasdaq 2585/2625
OEX 566/574
VIX 22.1/23.7
Trin range: 1.4 - 2.3 (bullish contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +10/-53 (bearish)

December 27, 2011

1:50pm ET: All 11 Merrill Lynch's Holdr ETFs now defunct

From IndexUniverse.com:

The final 11 HOLDRSs, which collectively had about $305 million in assets, were terminated today by their sponsor, Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner ' Smith, ending the lives of a family of exchange-traded products whose time has come and gone with the explosion of ETFs.

The dissolution of the 11 HOLDRS funds comes on the heels of the switch on Dec. 21 of six HOLDRS funds into Van Eck Global ETFs. The six HOLDRS involved in the Van Eck transfer had about $3.5 billion going into the exchange offer, and Van Eck said $2.3 billion of those assets went into its six new ETFs. The six securities chosen by Van Eck for the exchange offer held about 90 percent of all HOLDRS assets.

The 11 HOLDRS that were dissolved, their tickers and their assets as of Dec. 22 are as follows:

Broadband HOLDRS Trust (NYSEArca:BDH - News), $13.64 million
B2B Internet HOLDRS Trust (NYSEArca:BHH - News), $8.49 million
Europe 2001 HOLDRS Trust (NYSEArca:EKH - News), $3.68 million
Internet HOLDRS Trust (NYSEArca:HHH - News), $47.34 million
Internet Architecture HOLDRS Trust (NYSEArca:IAH - News), $29.82 million
Internet Infrastructure HOLDRS TRUST (NYSEArca:IIH - News), $5.37 million
Market 2000+HOLDRS Trust (NYSEArca:MKH - News), $9.76 million
Software HOLDRS Trust (NYSEArca:SWH - News), $27.14 million
Telecom HOLDRS Trust (NYSEArca:TTH - News), $99.88 million
Utilities HOLDRS Trust (NYSEArca:UTH - News), $45.68 million
Wireless HOLDRS Trust (NYSEArca:WMH - News), $10.67 million

1:15pm ET: Overall market tone: Trading volume between Christmas and New Year's is typically light and this year is no exception. Also, the Santa Claus rally typically extends a day or two past Christmas and this year again shows to be no exception. The S&P, the Dow industrials, and the Dow Transports have managed to clear recent resistance which is a strong indication that this rally has more room to run. The only monkey wrench is the VIX which should be moving lower as the major averages advance but is instead doing the opposite. If the VIX doesn't reverse course and end the day lower, this rally could lose all of its momentum. Since most of the world's politicians are on vacation, I'm not expecting any major market-moving events this week, so any move down will likely be muted. Sometimes boring can be a very refreshing change of pace.

12:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1262.5/1270.5
DTX 503/508
DJIA 12270/12340
Nasdaq 2611/2633
OEX 573/578
VIX 21.35/21.65
Trin range: 0.70 - 1.20 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +29/-27 (neutral)

December 23, 2011

1:20pm ET: Overall market tone: It looks as if Santa has done his job as this year-end rally has moved the SPX to exactly where it began the year. After all the sturm and drang accompanying the near collapse of Europe, we have somehow managed to break even. That's a pretty nice Christmas gift--thanks, Santa!

As I mentioned yesterday in the Blue Plate Specials, the last trading day before Christmas is typically an up day (although volume is always very light) and today is proving to be no exception. Next week you might see a bit more volatility as portfolio managers reshuffle their holdings, but that too is typically bullish. The first trading day in the New Year, however, can be quite a different story so prepare yourself for a potentially brutal beginning to 2012.

Everyone here at Stock Market Cook Book wishes a Merry Christmas and Happy Hannukah to all of our readers. May your days be merry and bright (I heard that somewhere before) and may all your trades be right. Don't forget that this Monday is a holiday!

12:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1254/1265
DTX 500.5/505.5
DJIA 12170/12290
Nasdaq 2600/2619
OEX 568.5/574.5
VIX 20.75/21.25
Trin range: 0.55 - 0.75 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +37/-20 (bullish but volume is light)

December 22, 2011

1:30pm ET: Overall market tone: The major averages are drifting higher on lackluster volume. But that's to be expected just two days before the Christmas holiday. (Note that the market will be closed on Monday--Boxing Day for all you Canucks.) The good news is that if the Dow Transports (DTX) can close above 503--an area of strong resistance--it will mark the highest close since August. Since the DTX is considered a leading indicator of market direction, that would be a very bullish sign indeed.

The VIX is now nearing the 20 level, believe it or not. This is a reflection of the fact that a lot of uncertainty is being removed from the market. A break below 20 would be the signal for conservative investors to begin taking on long positions. We all have felt the pain of market volatility in recent months but it could be a thing of the past. Perhaps Santa will give investors what they really want this year: A stable market for 2012.

1:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1244/1254
DTX 496.5/503.5
DJIA 12105/12185
Nasdaq 2582/2603
OEX 564/569
VIX 20.4/22.4
Trin range: 0.6 - 0.9 (neutral to bullish)
Average VWAPs: +39/-35 (neutral with not a lot of interest on either side)

December 21, 2011

2:30pm ET: Market update: It sure looks as if the market decided to buck the downward trend reported earlier. I guess Santa decided to get back to work after all!

1:20pm ET: Overall market tone: Day traders are probably having a field day with today's market action. The 5 minute chart of the SPX shows a series of lower highs and lower lows. My pivot point analysis shown below is saying that the market wants to head lower. Negative sentiment as displayed by the VWAPs is increasing. Whether the market will close lower is still up in the air but the technicals are saying that that would be a pretty good bet. It looks like Santa is sitting this one out.

1:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1226/1242
DTX 489/496
DJIA 11960/12120
Nasdaq 2522/2590
OEX 556/563
VIX 21.9/23.1
Trin range: 0.90 - 1.40 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +41/-51 (mildly bearish to neutral)

December 20, 2011

1:10pm ET: Overall market tone: The Trin closed yesterday over 2.2 which is so contrarian that technicians are not surprised by today's rally. But it appears as if the pendulum has overswung in the opposite direction as the Trin is now below 0.45 right in bullish contrarian territory. This doesn't necessarily mean that a reversal is imminent but it is a signal to be on your guard. If the Tick hits an extreme high then that would be a confirming indication that a market reversal is imminent.

I said yesterday that if there is to be a Santa Claus rally, the fat slob is going to have to stop sitting around checking his lists (Santa don't need no stinkin' lists anyway) and go to work. Maybe he got the message because a couple more days like this and the SPX will handily take out its October high. Judging from the anemic state of the VWAPs, I'm not counting on it but then, this is the season when miracles can happen...or so they say.

12:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1205.5/1247.5
DTX 480/500
DJIA 11770/12130
Nasdaq 2567/2611
OEX 547.5/565.5
VIX 22.4/23.6
Trin range: 0.4 - 0.9 (bullish to bullish contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +43/-31 (anemic values considering size of today's rally)

December 19, 2011

1:45pm ET: Overall market tone: I come back from a week's vacation and what do I find? Europe is still in the same pickle but now with the sword of Damocles (read: the ratings agencies) moving closer to its neck. Looks as if I was wrong and Santa Claus will not be flying in to save the day. Although there's still four more full trading days before Christmas and because hope does spring eternal, the market could rally theoretically ( Do you believe in magic? ) but technicals are singing a different tune ( Cry me a river ).

Last Tuesday (Dec. 13), the SPX violated its 40dma and has since been trading on the Sell side of the indicator. If there's any good news it is that the VIX has remained below 30. Remember that the VIX is a measure of fear and uncertainty, so all a lower VIX is telling us is that the debt situation is becoming more transparent--NOT that it's necessarily improving. Unless the VIX spikes back over 30 (which it could do), it's an indicator that is losing its technical significance.

But what does have significance is the double topping tails on the daily charts of most of the major averages. If they manage to break below the lows of today, expect further downside: SPX 1200 & DTX 475.

1:20 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1209.5/1224.5
DTX 482.5/495.5
DJIA 11795/11925
Nasdaq 2535/2570
OEX 548.5/555.5
VIX 24.4/25.4
Trin range: 1.30 - 2.30 (Trin falling from 2.3 high put in 2 hours ago is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +11/-74 (bearish)

December 9, 2011

1:45pm ET: Overall market tone: Will wonders never cease? Maybe there will be a Christmas on the continent afterall. Imagine, the Euro leaders actually agreed to agree! One part of the agreement (which is still a work in progress) that nobody in the press seems to be paying attention to is the shifting of some power from the member countries to the central government in Brussels. There needs to be a stronger central governance if the Eurozone is to survive as a unity. Just think how this country would have evolved if the states had as much or more power than the federal government? We experimented with that once back in the 1860's before we learned our lesson. Let's hope that Europe won't have to learn theirs the hard way, too.

As a note to my readers, I'll be taking a much needed vacation and will be out of internet reach for the next week. I'll be back bright-eyed and bushy-tailed on Monday the 19th. Have a delightful weekend!

1:20 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1234.5/1260.5
DTX 486.5/495.5
DJIA 11995/12205
Nasdaq 2603/2649
OEX 559/571
VIX 26.4/29.6
Trin range: 0.6 - 1.0 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +67/-23 (moderately bullish)

December 8, 2011

1:45pm ET: Overall market tone: More drama from the Eurozone is dragging the market down today. Draghi is saying that he's not going to fire up the printing presses, but this could just be a ploy to force the politicos into actually coming up with a viable plan instead of worrying about what's going to be served at their dinner meeting. Can't these people do anything on an empty stomach?

This turn of events plus the fact that some Euro countries such as Ireland and Switzerland are dusting off their printing presses is causing a rise in the VIX. It's now trading in the bear zone (over 30) which really is not bad considering had this news occurred two months ago, the VIX probably would have spiked a lot higher. The fact that there's no action in VIX call options is saying that people don't expect volatility to go much higher. And with all of this pent-up buying pressure, any hint of resolution in the Euro debt crisis will kick off another strong rally. If you're holding short positions, considering tightening up your stops. You don't want to get left holding the bag.

1:20 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1234/1260
DTX 485/498
DJIA 12005/12195
Nasdaq 2604/2646
OEX 559/570
VIX 29.5/30.9
Trin range: 1.0 - 1.85 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +4/-112 (bearish)

December 7, 2011

1:45pm ET: Overall market tone: The market took a nose dive this morning as European leaders said that they still can't get their act together and need until the end of the year to come up with a debt management plan. I mean, why let a silly thing like a debt crisis ruin your holiday festivities? What I still don't understand is why the market was so surprised over this turn of events. Kicking the can down the road has been Merkozy's main modus operandi. You'd think this stuff would be priced into the market by now--geesh!

The good news is that after traders finally woke up and realized it was business as usual the major averages were able to be put back on the rally track. Market internals right now are definitely in the bullish camp and although the mid-morning rally is fading a bit, it still looks good for a rise into the close. Santa would like to see the DTX close above 500. Doing that would add more fuel to this year-end rally--ho-ho-ho!

1:20 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1245/1262
DTX 492.5/502.5
DJIA 12065/12215
Nasdaq 2613/2662
OEX 563/570
VIX 28.2/29.5
Trin range: 0.55 - 0.95 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +65/-25 (moderately bullish at this time)

December 6, 2011

1:05pm ET: Overall market tone: Not much happening in the markets today as both Europe and investors seem to be taking a much needed day of rest. So why shouldn't you? Turn off your computers and get those holiday shopping, wrapping, writing, baking, and decorating chores out of the way. Or, treat yourself to a nice lunch. When was the last time you did that? Remember, the market will be here for you to play another day.

12:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1253/1262
DTX 493/503
DJIA 12080/12180
Nasdaq 2638/2662
OEX 566/569
VIX 27.5/28.1
Trin range: 0.6 - 1.0 (bullish/neutral)
Average VWAPs: +33/-52 (neutral to mildly bearish at this time)

December 5, 2011

1:35pm ET: Overall market tone: News that France and Germany are discussing yet another plan to stabilize the Eurozone is helping to propel the markets up. Actually, the real reason for the optimism is not that the Euro leaders are saying they can get their act together but rather from the ECB's injection of funds regardless of what they say or do. The reason that the ECB will be intervening is because of us, I mean U.S. It's the threat to our banking system which has beaucoup bucks tied up in Euro bank debt and credit default swaps (those ornery things again!). Since the Fed doesn't want another destabilization in our financial system, it'll provide the ECB with the necessary dollar-denominated funds. Q.E.D.

Regarding today's action: The markets took off on the open and are drifting in a tight trading range. Both the VIX and the Trin are rising (no surprise as the Trin was at 0.45--a very contrarian number) so expect near-term movement to drift down. Both VWAPs are hovering around 40. This is a tepid number indicating that there's not much conviction on either side of the bull/bear line. Barring any offsetting news, I'm expecting sideways market action for the remainder of the session. Should the DTX take out it's recent high of 506.75, that would be good indication that this rally has more room to keep on chugging along. You go little engine that could!

1:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1258.5/1268.5
DTX 501.5/508.5
DJIA 12125/12195
Nasdaq 2650/2680
OEX 568/572
VIX 26/27.5
Trin range: 0.45 - 0.70 (bullish to bullish contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +48/-39 (neutral)

December 2, 2011

1:45pm ET: Overall market tone: Jobless claims fell to under 9% which buoyed the market on the open. But as the numbers were further researched, it was found that part of that decrease was due to the fact that many are just leaving the workforce. However, the numbers overall suggest that the recovery in the US is ontrack albeit at a tepid pace. We shouldn't look a gift horse in the mouth as the US is one of the few developed nations that is projecting any sort of positive growth for the next couple of years. If we can persuade our policy leaders to adopt a more pro-business stance, than we'd likely be off to the races. Further taxation and regulations (US companies are being strangled by regulations) will only ensure a decrease in job creation and growth which will ultimately lead to a reduction in tax revenues. It's akin to shooting off your nose to spite your face.

Okay, I'm stepping off my soapbox. Turning to the markets, the major averages seem to be stuck in neutral and it appears that they've already put in their highs of the day. It seems as if this market is being fueled solely off of headlines which is like an engine being run on vapors instead of real fuel. Once the headline is digested the markets start drifting, waiting for its next meal. Market internals right now are indicating a downward bias and the charts of the major averages are showing topping tails which tells me that this rally may be due for a breather. A decline going into the close will confirm this assessment.

1:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1245/1260
DTX 491/501
DJIA 12000/12150
Nasdaq 2630/2660
OEX 562/568
VIX 25.3/27.5
Trin range: 0.75 - 1.3 (Trin is neutral)
Average VWAPs: +21/-70 (mildly bearish)

December 1, 2011

1:20pm ET: Overall market tone: The preliminary jobless claims number is back over 400,000 putting a damper on bullish enthusiasm. Right now the 1240 level on the S&P is holding but if my pivot points are correct and the market behaves in a normal fashion, we should see a mild break below that before the end of the day.

With the SPX in our Buy zone and the VIX below 30, it's okay for investors looking to play the long side to begin taking on partial positions. With tensions escalating in the Middle East, traders may wish to look at buying some call options on oil exchange traded funds such as the USO or OIL. Both have respectable options volume.

1:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1237/1251
DTX 490/494
DJIA 11960/12060
Nasdaq 2604/2636
OEX 557.5/563.5
VIX 26.7/28.3
Trin range: 0.55 - 1.20 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +23/-69 (mildly bearish)

November 30, 2011

12:50pm ET: Overall market tone: World central banks have agreed to take action in the Eurozone debt crisis which gave fund managers a reason to put some of that mountain of cash they're sitting on to work before the bonus checks are printed. Today's burning question is: Will this rally last? If the major averages can hang onto these levels and the VIX can stay below 30, then I do believe Santa will be coming to town. December has traditionally been a good month for the bulls and this one looks like it might not spoil that statistic. Of course, there still could be a few more surprises out of Europe but I think a lot of these fears have already been factored into the market. Another unknown is how the rising tensions in the middle-East will play out. All's not right with the world quite yet, so bears shouldn't abandon all hope...

If you'd like to know why the enormous interest in equities as opposed to bonds, all you need to do is to compare the potential returns. The SPX is trading at a P/E of 12--lower than its historic norm of 15--while treasuries and investment grade bonds are only yielding 2-3%. The choice is clear. Portfolio managers are betting heavily on the stock market.

12:45 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1230/1242
DTX 487.5/494.5
DJIA 11870/12070
Nasdaq 2582/2618
OEX 552.5/562.5
VIX 27/28.5
Trin range: 0.45 - 1.4 (Trin now at 0.55)
Average VWAPs: +42/-54 (neutral at the moment)

November 29, 2011

1:20pm ET: Overall market tone: Data showing an increase in consumer confidence boosted the major averages on the open but the rally is fading especially in the tech-heavy Nasdaq where Down volume is now outstripping Up volume. For this two day rally to have any legs, we'll need to see the SPX close above 1200 and the DTX to close above 477, both recent support/resistance levels for these two major indexes. That's about it for now.

1:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1191.5/1203.5
DTX 469/477
DJIA 11520/11620
Nasdaq 2512.5/2542.5
OEX 537/543
VIX 30.6/32
Trin range: 0.55 - 1.25 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +28/-63 (mildly bearish)

November 28, 2011

1:00pm ET: Overall market tone: The market popped up big-time this morning on news that cash registers were ringing off the hook over the holiday shopping weekend. (Caveat: Don't get too exuberant about retail stocks as these gains were made on narrow margins, i.e. big price cuts.) Non-bad news from Europe also contributed to this morning's rally efforts. The question now is: Will today's rally last?

Well, given the fact that the Trin is at an extremely low level (0.42) along with a bottoming tail in the VIX suggest that the major averages may have already put in the highs of the day. On the other hand, the pivot points indicate that we're going higher. Clearly, the message is mixed and only God and the closing bell know the truth. The word on the trading floor is that the pros are scooping up call options on the VIX futures. They see it as a cheap hedging mechanism (cheaper relative to last Friday). That alone should tell you something...

12:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1185/1204
DTX 466.5/476.5
DJIA 11475/11600
Nasdaq 2510/2544
OEX 535/540
VIX 31.2/33.2
Trin range: 0.4 - 0.7 (Trin is now at 0.42 which is very contrarian--could see a turnaround very soon)
Average VWAPs: +22/-53 (mildly bearish)

November 23, 2011

ý1:40pm ET: Overall market tone: There's not much to say today. Pre-turkey day volume is light but who can blame people for a) staying away from this fickle market and b) wanting to get a jump on gravy-making? The Stock Market Cook Book will be joining the hordes at the mall so there won't be any postings (including the Blue Plate Specials) on Black Friday. Just so you know, Friday's market will b...e closing early at 1pm ET. (it's against the law for the stock market to be closed for two trading days in a row, FYI.) Historically, the market typically rallies on Black Friday but it should go without saying that Europe could easily put the kibosh on that.

Have a very Happy Thanksgiving! Don't forget the Alka-Seltzer (burp!). See y'all back here on Monday.

1:20 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1164/1181
DTX 455/463
DJIA 11280/11400
Nasdaq 2467/2500
OEX 525/531
VIX 32.6/33.9
Trin range: 1.1 - 1.75 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +44/-43 (light volume on both sides; equal weighting is neutral)

November 22, 2011

1:15pm ET: Overall market tone: Today Dennis Gartman of the famed eponymous newsletter (which his wife puts out, just for the record) said that he was buying the Euro for two reasons: 1. it refuses to go down despite the fact that Europe seems to be falling apart by the minute (this actually is a good reason to buy) and 2. everyone else is shorting it (sometimes being a contrarian doesn't work). What this tells me is that nobody--not even the Wall Street gurus--actually knows what's going on. Which most likely explains the light trading volume seen in recent days...

Today's mid-day market action is fairly lackluster with every move being driven by a rumor floating out of Europe. One minute it's good news, the next one it's bad. All of this craziness is showing up in the anemic VWAPs and a Trin that's bouncing between wide boundaries. If there is one silver lining here (and I'm all about trying to find the sunshine in a situation) it's that the VIX is showing signs of stabilizing. Yes Virginia, there just might be a Santa Claus rally this year.

12:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1181.5/1196.5
DTX 467/473
DJIA 11440/11560
Nasdaq 2497/2533
OEX 532.5/538.5
VIX 31.55/33.40
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.80 (Trin in bear territory)
Average VWAPs: +41/-35 (light volume on both sides)

November 21, 2011

1:50pm ET: Overall market tone: The bears are back and why shouldn't they be with all of this negative news swirling about? I must say, though, that I was caught off-guard as I believed that most of today's news was already priced into the market. Then again, maybe it really is and what we're seeing is a new crop of fears arising from the ground already made fertile with the excrement of the global debt turmoil.

What with Europe's complete inability to cope with their problems and our own Supercommittee in a deadlock, the question now is (besides Should we just roundup all the politicians and send them to Mars?): What country will be next in line for a credit downgrade? I'm sure this is one big cause of concern along with all of the reports on the increasing likelihood of a significant global slowdown. The only bright spot today is the flight to safety seen by the rise in the greenback and Treasuries...which always bodes badly for the commodities (esp. gold & oil) and the equities market.

1:35 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1181/1195
DTX 465/475
DJIA 11425/11625
Nasdaq 2497/2525
OEX 532/540
VIX 34/35.5
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.45 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +42/-60

November 18, 2011

1:50pm ET: Overall market tone: There's really not much to write about other than restuffing the same old shirt. So, instead of writing something completely original, I'm going to invoke the time honored First Principle of Lazy Journalism: When you don't have anything to say, quote someone else.

If you're wondering why there's been such a tug-of-war between the bulls and the bears, here are some reasons fueling each respective camp (courtesy of Barchart.com)

Bullish factors
(1) The unexpected declines in weekly initial U.S. unemployment claims to a 7-month low and in weekly continuing claims to a 3-year low (initial claims -5,000 to 388,000 versus expectations of +5,000 to 395,000 and weekly continuing claims -57,000 to 3.608 million, better than expectations of +18,000 to 3.633 million)
(2) The smaller-than-expected decline in Oct housing starts (-0.3% to 628,000 versus expectations of -7.3% to 610,000)
(3) The larger-than-expected increase in Oct building permits which climbed to their best level in 19 months (+10.9% to 653,000 versus expectations of +2.4% to 603,000)

[My Note: Housing and jobs are lagging figures which means that the economy is already in the recovery process.]

Bearish factors
(1) Concern the European debt crisis will worsen after the weakest demand for a Spanish 10-year bond auction in 3 years pushed yields on Spanish government debt to euro-era highs
(2) A report from Reuters that a Euro-Zone official said there are no plans for aid to Italy from the European Financial Stability Facility
(3) The unexpected decline in the Nov Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index (-5.1 to 3.6 versus expectations of +0.3 to 9.0)
(4) Weakness in technology stocks due to a slump in Applied Materials (AMAT), the largest producer of chipmaking equipment, after it forecast weaker-than-estimated Q1 sales and profits

1:35 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1211/1224
DTX 481/487
DJIA 11745/11855
Nasdaq 2565/2595
OEX 546/552
VIX 32.5/34
Trin range: 0.70 - 1.75 (Trin is falling from 1.75 high which is a bullish sign)
Average VWAPs: +45/-42 (VWAPs have just now turned favoring the + side which is bullish)
Note: Barring some earth-shattering rumor, the rest of the trading day looks to be rangebound.

November 17, 2011

1:30pm ET: Overall market tone: About an hour ago I was trying to delineate today's support and resistance levels on the major averages and was having a tough time. The reason was that I couldn't find the pivot point which is usually apparent. I always hate it when this happens because I know that the market is up to something, so I decided to make a little breakfast and wait before I made today's call.

Good thing I did because just minutes after stepping away from my computer, the major averages all marched off a cliff. I was shocked to see the damage when I returned nary ten minutes later. Scrambling to find the cause, I found that my trusted Twitter sources were ascribing the sell-off to a sell signal triggered in the high frequency trading (HFT) sphere. Okay, I'll buy that for now. What I do know is that this time the sell-off wasn't coming from the Eurodebt zone--one momentary comfort for what it's worth.

Anyway, I do hope that the bottom for today was put in, but as we keep finding out, anything can happen in this wild market environment.

Highlighted earnings after the bell on Thursday: Intuit (INTU), GAP (GPS)
Highlighted earnings before the bell on Friday: Heinz (HNZ)

1:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1211.5/1237.5
DTX 479/493
DJIA 11710/11960
Nasdaq 2580/2648
OEX 546/558
VIX 33/36
Trin range: 1.0 - 2.8 (Trin is falling from 2.83 high which is a bullish sign)
Average VWAPs: +2/-150 (very bearish)

November 16, 2011

1:45pm ET: Overall market tone: Yesterday's news redux: Cheery economic data helped to offset the disturbing news that yields on European debt (ex-Germany) is soaring. Market internals are fairly bullish at the moment, but as we've seen that could all change on a dime. Clearly, these wild market swings are spooking investors and traders as evidenced by the light trading volume. Both the Trin and the VIX are falling as of this writing indicating that this morning's rally hasn't run out of steam just yet.

Highlighted earnings after the bell on Wednesday: Limited Brands (LTD--another in the retail apparel space), Applied Mat'ls (AMAT) & NetApp (NTAP)--both will be watched for trends in the computer fab space
Highlighted earnings before the bell on Thursday: Ross Stores (ROST--love the store, hate the long checkout lines), Game Stop (GME), Helmerich & Payne (HP), J M Smucker (SJM)
Highlighted earnings after the bell on Thursday: Intuit (INTU), GAP (GPS)

1:30 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1243.5/1257.5
DTX 491.5/499.5
DJIA 11955/12095
Nasdaq 2658/2687
OEX 559.5/565.5
VIX 30.3/33
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.30 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +71/-30 (moderately bullish)

November 15, 2011

1:50pm ET: Overall market tone: Cheery economic data helped to offset the disturbing news that yields on European debt (ex-Germany) is soaring. Market internals are fairly bullish at the moment, but as we've seen that could all change on a dime. Clearly, these wild market swings are spooking investors and traders as evidenced by the light trading volume. Both the Trin and the VIX are falling as of this writing indicating that this morning's rally hasn't run out of steam just yet.

Highlighted earnings after the bell on Tuesday: Dell (DELL). Agilient (A)--both tech bellweathers will be closely watched; results could impact tech sector (XLK)
Highlighted earnings before the bell on Wednesday: Tyco Int'l (TYC), Target (TGT) & Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF)--both will be watched for clues to consumer spending
Highlighted earnings after the bell on Wednesday: Limited Brands (LTD--another in the retail apparel space), Applied Mat'ls (AMAT) & NetApp (NTAP)--both will be watched for trends in the computer fab space

1:20 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1244/1262
DTX 490.5/499.5
DJIA 12000/12140
Nasdaq 2644/2686
OEX 560/567
VIX 30.7/32.5
Trin range: 0.55 - 1.25 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +72/-27 (moderately bullish)

November 14, 2011

1:50pm ET: Overall market tone: Markets dropped on more gloomy news out of Europe but at midday, the major averages seem to be shaking off their doldrums. Internals are still leaning toward the bearish side but not nearly as much as earlier. Barring any news jolt, expect tepid action for the rest of the day.

Trade Notes: 1. Chemical maker Lyondell (LYB) announces a $4.50 special per share dividend plus an increase in its regular dividend from $0.05 to $0.25. Both are payable on 12/16/11 to shareholders on record as of 11/25/11. (No ex-dividend date cited.) With the stock currently at $35.45, this gives a 13.3% yield--that's a juicy one!
2. The chairman & CEO of Chinese wireless company China Greentech (GRRF), who already owns 32% of the stock, is offering to buy the rest for $3.10/share in an effort to take the company private. With the stock currently at $2.85 gives an 8.3% ROI. This could be a risky bet as the offer depends on debt financing. For those skeptical about Chinese companies, note that Harbin Electric's CEO offered to take his company private and the deal was consummated.

Highlighted earnings after the bell on Monday: Assured Guaranty (AGO), Urban Outfitters (URBN)
Highlighted earnings before the bell on Tuesday: Home Despot (HD), TJX Co's (TJX), Walmart (WMT), Staples (SPLS)--all will be closely watched for consumer spending habits
Highlighted earnings after the bell on Tuesday: Dell (DELL). Agilient (A)--both tech bellweathers will be closely watched; results could impact tech sector (XLK)

1:20 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1243.5/1263.5
DTX 491/498
DJIA 12020/12160
Nasdaq 2642/2682
OEX 554/568
VIX 31.25/33.25
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.50 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +14/-63 (bearish)

November 11, 2011

1:30pm ET: Overall market tone: Stocks rose this morning on good political news out of Europe (Greece has new leadership and Italy passed austerity measures) plus an expected rise in consumer sentiment here. Both of these reports are cheering but really, how robust are they? Okay, so the Greeks were able to select a leader (woo-hoo!) and Italy was able to pass a law but the real question is will this new leader be effective and will Italy be able to adhere to its austerity measures? I guess the conterbalancing news that Merkel and Sarkozy (the undynamic duo) plus other European leaders are hinting at breaking up the EU isn't catching the fancy of investors because if it did, it's likely that we could have seen another repeat of Wednesday's sell-off. Let's keep our fingers crossed that nobody notices.

Regarding the rise in consumer sentiment, does this number have any meaning other than that folks are feeling less jittery? How does this translate into $$ if it does at all? For example, does a 3 point rise in the sentiment index equate to $10B more that the consumer is likely to spend over the next quarter? If I were an economist I might have the answer but I'm not. I'm just wondering if all this euphoria will be able to last until the end of the day...

Highlighted earnings before the bell on Monday: Urban Outfitters (URBN), JC Penney (JCP), Lowes (LOW)--all of these will be watched for clues as to consumer spending.

1:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1255/1270
DTX 490/500
DJIA 12050/12250
Nasdaq 2650/2690
OEX 565/570
VIX 29/31
Trin range: 0.50 - 1.10 (bullish falling into bullish contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +86/-30 (bullish)

November 10, 2011

1:30pm ET: Overall market tone: News that the ECB actually bought Italian debt (aka crapellini) buoyed the market...for the moment. My intraday analysis (based on pivot points) is suggesting a move higher but as we've seen repeatedly, predictions can be dashed in a European minute (which is now faster than its New York equivalent). Earnings season is winding down so the market won't have that added stimulation. With the VIX hanging above 30, long-term investors should still be on the sidelines or have portfolio protection if long.

Trade Note: Apple (AAPL) just blasted through $390 support. It put in an island reversal last month (10/14-10/19 to be exact) which is a bearish technical configuration. Investors are backing away from Apple for several reasons: 1. its price points are too high and unsustainable in the face of increasing competition especially in the tablet (think Amazon's kindle) and smartphone spaces; 2. the company is sitting on a mountain of cash and refuses to use it to return shareholder equity in the form of stock buybacks or dividends; 3. the company lost a lot of its cachet with the tragic loss of its founder, Steve Jobs.

The trade is to play Apple to the downside. You can do this by shorting the stock or by using put credit spreads. My preference is the latter since the costs and risks are limited. The stock's next support level is in the $355-$360 range which options traders should heed when considering strike prices. (More advanced options traders might also consider adding a call credit spread on any stock rally to cover the cost of the put spread.)

Highlighted earnings after the bell on Thursday: Walt Disney (DIS), Nvidia (NVDA), Nordstrom (JWN)
Highlighted earnings before the bell on Friday: DR Horton (DHI--this will be watched in the homebuilder space)

1:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1227.5/1247.5
DTX 478/488
DJIA 11780/11980
Nasdaq 2600/2650
OEX 552.5/560.5
VIX 32.5/35.5
Trin range: 0.90 - 1.60 (Trin is neutral at this time)
Average VWAPs: +63/-37 (mildly bullish)

November 9, 2011

DON'T FORGET THE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATES TONIGHT!

1:15pm ET: Overall market tone: Market down as the Eurodebt drama takes on a bearish tone. Since the market is still being driven by Euro-headline news/rumors, isn't it getting to be that time a good one is released? If so, expect a rally similar to yesterday's and if not, then look for the market to remain stuck in neutral. Even the money managers with all of that pent-up cash that they'll need to put into action before year's end require some sort of an excuse to buy.

Trade Notes: 1. The VIX is back over 30 which means bullish investors should stay away until the VIX can show that it can stay below 30 for at least 2-3 days in a row.
2. Since portfolio managers have lost so much this year, they're resorting to swing trading (meaning their holding time is on the order of a few days) on high beta names to make up for the shortfall. I'm not advocating that you do the same I'm just saying that this type of trading is going to make the market very bumpy for the next couple of months.

Highlighted earnings after the bell on Wednesday: Cisco (CSCO--although not the market mover it used to be, this earnings report will still be watched
Highlighted earnings before the bell on Thursday: Viacom (VIA.B), Kohl's (KSS)
Highlighted earnings after the bell on Thursday: Walt Disney (DIS), Nvidia (NVDA), Nordstrom (JWN)

1:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1240/1255
DTX 481/487
DJIA 11850/12020
Nasdaq 2647/2680
OEX 557/565
VIX 31/33
Trin range: 1.10 - 1.60 (Trin is rising which is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +44/-37 (neutral)

November 8, 2011

1:15pm ET: Overall market tone: More of the same drama in Europe. The market seems to be taking it all in stride with the major averages trading in a loose range. Market internals are lackluster with a bearish bias (at the time of this writing) so a rally may not be in the cards today (unless we get some unexpected good news). If I had a choice I'd take the day off and do some holiday shopping because it's never to early to start doing that.

Highlighted earnings after the bell on Tuesday: Int'l Game Tech (IGT)
Highlighted earnings before the bell on Wednesday: Macy's (M), Ralph Lauren (RL), Computer Sciences (CSC), Dean Foods (DF)
Highlighted earnings after the bell on Wednesday: Cisco (CSCO--although not the market mover it used to be, this earnings report will still be watched

1:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1253/1271
DTX 484/496
DJIA 11970/12130
Nasdaq 2674/2723
OEX 563/471
VIX 29/30.5
Trin range: 0.80 - 1.60 (Trin is rangebound at mid-day)
Average VWAPs: +30/-55 (mildly bearish)

November 7, 2011

1:30pm ET: Overall market tone: With the turmoil in Greece subsiding for a moment on the ouster of G-Pap, attention is being turned to Italy dubbed the next domino. The question whether the Eurozone can continue ultimately boils down to whether or not the central bank can print enough money to bailout everyone (or at least attempt it). Do you really think that will happen? I don't, either. And suppose it does, then what? Well, what usually happens when there's a surfeit of fiat currency? Yep. Precious metals and other commodities go up. The reason the volatility remains high is that nobody knows what will ultimately happen and I, for one, am having a difficult time imagining a rosy outcome. If there is a way out of this global mess besides taking extreme austerity measures (along with tax easing not hiking), I'm not seeing it.

On the bright side, perhaps the Oracle of Omaha knows something others don't. According to his latest SEC filings, he's been loading up on the stocks (right now we don't know what he's been buying). He, at least, seems to think stocks are cheap at these valuations. Highlighted earnings after the bell on Monday: Priceline (PCLN--the biggie in online travel), Sotheby's (BID--a proxy for the spending habits of the wealthy), Youku (YOKU--a proxy for Chinese co's)
Highlighted earnings before the bell on Tuesday: Int'l Flavors & Fragrances (IFF), Rockwell Automation (ROK)
Highlighted earnings after the bell on Tuesday: Int'l Game Tech (IGT)

1:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1232/1260
DTX 479.5/494.5
DJIA 11850/12050
Nasdaq 2632/2694
OEX 556/565
VIX 30.5/32/5
Trin range: 0.65 - 1.20 (Trin is falling right now which is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +18/-75 (mildly bearish)

November 4, 2011

1:30pm ET: Overall market tone: The employment report was not very good but still fell within expectation parameters. More importantly, Greek PM G-Pap (catch his new rap video We don't need no stinkin' bailout ) is facing a vote of confidence. A no vote could easily send Greece into further turmoil thereby dragging the entire Eurozone with it. Must I mention that traders should take their chips off the table by the end of the day as anything can happen over the weekend?

Highlighted earnings before the bell on Monday: Sysco (SYY)

1:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1238/1261
DTX 479/486
DJIA 12850/12050
Nasdaq 2655/2685
OEX 556/566
VIX 30.9/32.5
Trin range: 0.90 - 1.30 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +72/-27 (mildly bullish)
Expect rangebound action for the remainder of the trading session

November 3, 2011

1:30pm ET: Overall market tone: Greek prime minister Papandrou is now looking like a genius by using the threat of a referendum to force the opposition into approving the EU debt plan. This news plus better than expected economic news here are boosting the major averages. Tomorrow, all eyes will be on the government employment report and a bad number could turn this rally right around.

Trade Note: Despite today's drop in the VIX, it is still above 30. This means that if you're intent on going long, please do so with smaller positions. And don't forget to set stop/losses and/or protect your positions with puts.

Highlighted earnings after the bell on Thursday: Starbuck's (SBUX), First Solar (FSLR--this will be closely watched by the bears), American Int'l (AIG), Skyworks Sol'ns (SWKS--will be watched in the tech space)
Highlighted earnings before the bell on Friday: Washington Post (WPO--could affect other print media co's)

1:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1235/1265
DTX 480/494
DJIA 11850/12000
Nasdaq 2630/2685
OEX 556/564
VIX 30.5/34.5
Trin range: 0.60 - 1.10 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +116/-34 (bullish)

November 2, 2011

1:45pm ET: Overall market tone: The market was surprisingly subdued after today's Fed's interest rate decision. Perhaps everyone's waiting for Big Ben's press conference at 2:15pm ET but I think that will be as much of a non-event as the rate decision was. Inflation, so far, doesn't seem to have yet shown up on the Fed's radar screen. I guess that commodities must not play a big part in their equation...

Highlighted earnings after the bell on Wednesday: Qualcomm (QCOM), Kraft (KFT), Whole Foods (WFMI)
Highlighted earnings before the bell on Thursday: CVS Caremark (CVS), Duke Energy (DUK)
Highlighted earnings after the bell on Thursday: Starbuck's (SBUX), First Solar (FSLR--this will be closely watched by the bears), American Int'l (AIG)

1:25 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1224.5/1244.5
DTX 476.5/487.5
DJIA 11650/11925
Nasdaq 2616.5/2648.5
OEX 548.5/559.5
VIX 32.5/34.5
Trin range: 0.75 - 1.20
Average VWAPs: +12/-103 (bearish; note that the VWAPs can change drastically as market conditions change)

November 1, 2011

1:45pm ET: Overall market tone: Renewed instability in the Eurozone caused a 25% pop in the VIX. With the index now well over 30 (it's at 36) investors should take a pause in playing the long side and look to protect current positions if that hasn't already been done. Besides being on Greek default watch, the market is turning its attention to what the Fed may say in its interest rate statement tomorrow. The big thing to look for here is any mention of the I word: Inflation.

Highlighted earnings after the bell on Tuesday: JDS Uniphase (JDSU)
Highlighted earnings before the bell on Wednesday: Time-Warner (TWX), El Paso (EP)
Highlighted earnings after the bell on Wednesday: Qualcomm (QCOM), Kraft (KFT)

1:20 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1217/1233
DTX 472/488
DJIA 11615/11785
Nasdaq 2600/2640
OEX 545/555
VIX 34/38 (a 25% overnight jump in the VIX is very bearish)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.7 (Trin is still rising whic is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +28/-111 (bearish)

October 31, 2011

1:20pm ET: Overall market tone: The euphoria following the Eurozone rescue plan is being replaced by doubt. This caused the markets to tumble on the open. Also creating a drag is the imminent demise of trading company MF Global. Their ill-timed European investments are proving to be their downfall leading everyone to ponder the big question of who will be next.

The European debt situation is not over yet, folks, and it appears that it will continue to spook the market for a while. On the bright side, the major averages are now trading off their midday lows and market internals are suggesting that a rally could be in the making as both the Trin and VIX are moving lower.

Highlighted earnings before the bell on Monday: Humana (HUM)--beat earnings, stock rallying to a new high; Loews (L)--rising revenues were offset by losses, stock off 3%
Highlighted earnings after the bell on Monday: Anadarko petroleum (APC)
Highlighted earnings before the bell on Tuesday: Amerisource Bergen (ABC), Baker Hughes (BHI)
Highlighted earnings after the bell on Tuesday: JDS Uniphase (JDSU)

1:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1261/1275
DTX 491/501
DJIA 12030/12130
Nasdaq 2694/2722
OEX 567/573
VIX 27/28
Trin range: 1.1 - 2.1 (Trin is falling right now which is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +45/-59 (neutral to slightly bearish)

October 28, 2011

1:30pm ET: Overall market tone: After charging out of the gate and running at full speed, the bulls are taking a well-deserved break. Trading action has been rangebound and internals are suggesting more of the same for the rest of the day...but you never know what will happen going into the close. Tempted into taking short-term profits, traders could look to lighten their load before heading into the weekend so an end of day sell-off wouldn't be unexpected.

Highlighted earnings before the bell on Monday: Humana (HUM)--could affect the healthcare sector, Loews (L)
Highlighted earnings after the bell on Monday: Anadarko petroleum (APC)

1:20 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1277/1287
DTX 500/505
DJIA 12160/12260
Nasdaq 2723/2743
OEX 574/578
VIX 24.5/26
Trin range: 0.60 - 1.10 (Trin is falling right now which is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +57/-54 (neutral)

October 27, 2011

1:30pm ET: Overall market tone: Seemingly against all odds, the European leaders actually came to an accord on how to deal with their debt. It looks as if they're not going to let Greece default by letting banks write down 50% of their Greek debt. It's unclear whether that will be enough but it will have to do. Guess there's a limit to how much monopoly money the EU is willing to print...

You can see how this good news translated into a big rally in markets around the globe. Not only that, but backwardation in the VIX futures was removed as the spot VIX got a 15% haircut bringing it inline with futures' values. In lay terms, this means that a lot of uncertainty has been removed and investors are feeling more confident. Yesterday, the VIX barely closed under 30 and barring a major catastrophe, it's on track to close well below that today.

WHAT THIS ALL MEANS FOR INVESTORS: You have the green light to begin taking on partial long positions. Short positions (except in select cases) should be exited if you haven't done so by now (and you should have). Please note that Europe is not out of the woods--there are major debt issues facing Italy and the other PIIGS that need to be addressed. On our shores we have our own debt problems which will soon be stepping into the media limelight. In the face of all of these concerns, please take heed by protecting your long positions.

Highlighted earnings before the bell on Thursday: Bristol-Myers (BMY)--beat estimates pushing stock to new high; Exxon-Mobil (XOM)--revenues up on higher energy prices which offset falling production; Proctor & Gamble (PG)--reported inline despite rising commodity costs
Highlighted earnings after the bell on Thursday: Advanced Micro (AMD)
Highlighted earnings before the bell on Friday: Merck (MRK)--will influence pharma sector; Cigna (CI), Dominion Resources (D), Weyerhauser (WY), Chevron (CVX)--expect a report similar to XOMs

1:20 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1265/1285
DTX 493/507
DJIA 12050/12200
Nasdaq 2695/2750
OEX 569/577
VIX 24.1/26.5
Trin range: 0.75 - 1.15 (Trin is falling which is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +112/-44 (bullish but bears haven't gone away)

October 26, 2011

1:20pm ET: Overall market tone: While European leaders (apart from Berlusconi who is apparently suffering from an acute identity crisis) are sipping tea and eating scones (according to Pimco's Bill Gross) the Western world is crumbling around them. This lack of concern could stem from being completely overwhelmed by the situation or by the fact that they really don't give a fig. Whatever the reason, you can bet that their constituents are not going to be happy if they can't reach an accord and, just like poor Marie Antoinette, heads may roll (figuratively at least).

As long as this debt situation is unresolved, the chance of a rally in US markets is slim. On top of that, the fact that Amazon missed its numbers big time didn't help. Although revenues rose, so did costs which took down its operating margin. The company is projecting further spending and it appears that margins will shrink even further. This is not good news for the stock. I wouldn't recommend shorting it because after all, it is Amazon...but I wouldn't recommend buying it, either.

Highlighted earnings after the bell on Wednesday: Symantec (SYMCs)
Highlighted earnings before the bell on Thursday: Bristol-Myers (BMY), Exxon-Mobil (XOM), Proctor & Gamble (PG)
Highlighted earnings after the bell on Thursday: Advanced Micro (AMD)

1:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1219/1243
DTX 471/483
DJIA 11680/11870
Nasdaq 2598/2666
OEX 549.5/559.5
VIX 30.4/33.3
Trin range: 1.0 - 2.2 (Trin is rising right now which is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +18/-97 (bearish)

October 25, 2011

12:45pm ET: Overall market tone: Volatility is back again as the European leaders waffle on their debt deal which was supposed to be set in stone tomorrow. But even that looks as if it may not happen--or will it? I don't about you, but with Halloween coming up I can think of no specter more terrifying than a market that's so insecure that even a whiff of a hint of a rumor can force a directional movement. Until Europe can exorcise its debt demons, the prudent course of action in the market would be to take no action. The market is being whipsawed and on what side of the fence it will finally land is anyone's guess. So, if you think that a stock is cheap and you're being offered a treat, watch out because it could be a trick in disguise.

Highlighted earnings after the bell on Monday: NFLX reported that it lost 800,000 subscribers instead of the estimated 600,000 and projected further subscriber erosion. This pushed the stock off a climb, plunging 35%.
Highlighted earnings after the bell on Tuesday: AMZN (this could have an impact on retail and internet sectors), CHRW (could impact transports), ESRX
Highlighted earnings before the bell on Wednesday: Boeing (BA), Lockheed-Martin (LMT), and General Dynamics (GD) -- how these companies report will define the direction of the aero & defense sector as all of these are major players; Sprint (S), Ford (F)--a good report could buoy the industry, Visa (V)--watch to get a handle on consumer spending, Symantec (SYMC)

12:30 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1226/1254
DTX 479/485
DJIA 11710/11910
Nasdaq 2660/2700
OEX No OEX data feed to my charting program today
VIX 29.25/31.65
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.40 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +85/-33 (moderately bullish)

October 24, 2011

1:15pm ET: Overall market tone: Europe appears to be getting its debt act together which translates into a positive movement in our markets. (Compare the charts of the euro (FXE) with the SPX for the past two months and you'll see that they're almost perfectly correlated.) The VIX is dipping below 30 and a close below that would be one nail in the bear's coffin. Market analysts consider 1257 in the SPX to be the final hurdle that the bulls must clear (in my mind's eye I'm trying to picture a bull jumping a high hurdle--rather an ungainly sight) and that hurdle could be cleared in just a couple of hours. If so, then it's time to dust off your buy lists and begin taking partial bullish positions. But with the volatility still elevated, hedging your bets is still a good idea.

Highlighted earnings after the bell on Monday: AMGN (this could impact the drug sector), NFLX (this will be closely watched and a good report could power the stock much higher; options traders could do some sort of iron condor type of straddle)
Highlighted earnings before the bell on Tuesday: TLAB, DGX
Highlighted earnings after the bell on Tuesday: AMZN (this could have an impact on retail and internet sectors), CHRW (could impact transports), ESRX

1:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1235/1255
DTX 482/496
DJIA 11800/11960
Nasdaq 2644/2716
OEX 558.5/566.5
VIX 28.7/31.7
Trin range: 0.5 - 0.75 (very bullish)
Average VWAPs: +72/-34 (moderately bullish)

October 21, 2011

1:45pm ET: Overall market tone: Good news from Europe is that they might actually have an outline for a debt plan. That plus some decent earnings reports from McDonald's (MCD) and Chipolte (CMG) (hey, everyone has to eat!) helped push the major averages over their recent resistance zones. But bears shouldn't become too giddy because all of this could just be a head fake. Although the VIX dropped 7% today, it's still on bearish ground. Until Europe shows the rest of the world that they've come up with a viable debt plan and are taking concrete steps to put it into motion, investors will be shying away from the gaming tables. Right now, the VIX is the key indicator regarding the health of the market, and we need it to drop under 30 before investors have the confidence to play the long side.

Highlighted earnings before the bell on Monday: VFC, LO, CAT, ROP
Highlighted earnings after the bell on Monday: AMGN (this could impact the entire movement in the drug sector), TXN

Financial Earnings Watch: The major banks are set to report this week. These will be critical to the performance of the entire banking industry which has been suffering for the most part. Will the pain continue or will they find relief? Tune into these key company reports:
Monday: C & WFC report before the bell (B): C beat estimates (-1%), WFC missed estimates (-7%--ouch)
Tuesday: BAC (B)--beat expectations, stock up 7%
Wednesday: AXP after the bell (A), USB (B)--beat estimates & posted record revenues
Thursday: COF (A)--beat estimates, FITB (B)--beat estimates
Friday: STI (B)--mixed
Summary: Earnings seemed to boost the regional banks (KRE) by 6% this week but the big banks were unchanged (KBE).

1:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1215/1239
DTX 471/481
DJIA 11575/11775
Nasdaq 2601/2647
OEX 550/560
VIX 31.7/34.1
Trin range: 0.7- 1.4
Average VWAPs: +40/-90 (moderately bearish)

October 20, 2011

1:25pm ET: Overall market tone: Encouraging economic numbers out earlier combined with news out of Europe that they're really, really trying hard to solve their debt problems seemed to buoy the market. But as with everything nowadays, a good mood can quickly sour quashing any attempts at a rally. Trying to predict market direction for more than 15 minutes into the future is a futile exercise at this point.

Highlighted earnings today after the bell: ALTR, SNDK & MSFT (almost forgot it) will weigh in on the tech sector (XLK)
Highlighted earnings before tomorrow's open: STI, HON, VZ, SLB, GE

Financial Earnings Watch: The major banks are set to report this week. These will be critical to the performance of the entire banking industry which has been suffering for the most part. Will the pain continue or will they find relief? Tune into these key company reports:
Monday: C & WFC report before the bell (B): C beat estimates (-1%), WFC missed estimates (-7%--ouch)
Tuesday: BAC (B)--beat expectations, stock up 7%
Wednesday: AXP after the bell (A), USB (B)--beat estimates & posted record revenues
Thursday: COF (A), FITB (B)--beat estimates
Friday: STI (B)

1:30 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1197.5/1217.5
DTX 462/472
DJIA 11390/11570
Nasdaq 2557/2613
OEX 542/552
VIX 33.9/36.9
Trin range: 0.7- 1.4
Average VWAPs: +86/-35 (moderately bullish)

October 19, 2011

1:25pm ET: Overall market tone: After so much anxiety concerning global events, even the market needs a day off. And that's what it appears to be doing. Internals are lackluster reflecting the rangebound action...so far. I was rather expecting a down day since Apple (AAPL) missed its numbers, although sales of the iPhone are expected to be spectacular. There's just so much expectation built into this stock that if it can't consistently trounce estimates, investors are disappointed. When a company's aura becomes this heady, any negative news has the potential of a taking a big bite out of share price.

In other earnings news, Intel (INTC) beat its numbers in part due to production problems at competitor AMD. An acquaintence who works at the company says that it's terribly mismanaged and he wouldn't consider buy shares in it! Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), a maker of surgical robotics, trounced estimates sending the stock to a new high. Contrary to Intel, ISRG's management appears to know what they're doing and I urge investors to become familiar with this company as it looks like a solid long-term investment. Technically, the stock's chart is stellar.

Highlighted earnings today after the bell: WYNN, XLNX, AXP (see below)

Financial Earnings Watch: The major banks are set to report this week. These will be critical to the performance of the entire banking industry which has been suffering for the most part. Will the pain continue or will they find relief? Tune into these key company reports:
Monday: C & WFC report before the bell (B): C beat estimates (-1%), WFC missed estimates (-7%--ouch)
Tuesday: BAC (B)--beat expectations, stock up 7%
Wednesday: AXP after the bell (A), USB (B)--beat estimates & posted record revenues
Thursday: COF (A), FITB (B)
Friday: STI (B)

1:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1220/1233
DTX 465/472
DJIA 11545/11645
Nasdaq 2630/2660
OEX 552/558
VIX 32/33.50
Trin range: 0.7-1.4
Average VWAPs: +41/-44 (equal conviction on both sides)

October 18, 2011

1:50pm ET: Overall market tone: The overall tone is bullish today as Stank of America (BAC) topped estimates earlier propelling the entire banking sector higher. (The bank ETF, KBE, is up over 4%.) The market is now turning to its attention to Intel (INTC) and especially Apple (AAPL) both of which report after the close. How these earnings reports are viewed will determine the near-term direction of the tech sector (XLK). The suspense is palpable.

Highlighted earnings today after the bell:
INTC (I was wrong yesterday when I said it was reporting before the bell), AAPL (this will be very closely watched), JNPR, ISRG

Financial Earnings Watch: The major banks are set to report this week. These will be critical to the performance of the entire banking industry which has been suffering for the most part. Will the pain continue or will they find relief? Tune into these key company reports:
Monday: C & WFC report before the bell (B): C beat estimates (-1%), WFC missed estimates (-7%--ouch)
Tuesday: BAC (B)--beat expectations, stock up 7%
Wednesday: AXP after the bell (A), USB (B)
Thursday: COF (A), FITB (B)
Friday: STI (B)

1:30 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1191.5/1223.5
DTX 454/470
DJIA 11300/11550
Nasdaq 2587/2643
OEX 540.5/553.5
VIX 30.7/34.7
Trin range: 0.5-0.8 (falling Trin is bullis)
Average VWAPs: +90/-37 (bullish)

October 17, 2011

1:10pm ET: Overall market tone: The major averages are trading down as the market digests recent gains. The VIX has crossed back above 30 which has spread a bearish pallor over the trading environment. The big question now: Is this move into bearish territory just a temporary retracement or is this the start of something more permanent?

Highlighted earnings today & tomorrow:
Notable earnings up today after the bell: IBM, VMW (both down today)
Notable earnings due out before tomorrow's bell: EMC, KO, FRX (all down today)
Notable earnings due out tomorrow after the bell: INTC, JNPR, ISRG (all down today)

Financial Earnings Watch: The major banks are set to report this week. These will be critical to the performance of the entire banking industry which has been suffering for the most part. Will the pain continue or will they find relief? Tune into these key company reports:
Monday: C & WFC report before the bell (B): C beat estimates (-1%), WFC missed estimates (-7%--ouch)
Tuesday: BAC (B)--this will be very closely watched and could be the make or break moment for the stock
Wednesday: AXP after the bell (A), USB (B)
Thursday: COF (A), FITB (B)
Friday: STI (B)

12:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1201.5/1224.5
DTX 453/469
DJIA 11405/11645
Nasdaq 2618/2658
OEX 544.5/554.5
VIX 30/32.5
Trin range: 0.70 - 1.20 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +9/-109 (bearish)

October 14, 2011

1:50pm ET: Overall market tone: The market opened up on the good news that the consumer spending wasn't nearly as bad as anticipated (does this mean we're not saving anymore?) and on the news that Google beat its estimates yesterday after the close. But we knew they would. One indication was that it made yesterday's break out list (which is a part of the daily Blue Plate Specials--see subscriber services for details).

Currently the market is slowly moving up. There's not a lot of conviction on either side as shown by the lackluster VWAPs. The good news is that the VIX is below the critical 30 mark. A close below that will certainly put a nasty splinter in the bear's paw thus opening the path for a bull charge.

Earnings Watch: Next week the major banks are set to report. These will be critical to the performance of the entire banking industry which has been suffering for the most part. Will the pain continue or will they find relief? Tune into these key company reports:
Monday: C & WFC report before the bell (B)
Tuesday: BAC (B)--this will be very closely watched and could be the make or break moment for the stock
Wednesday: AXP after the bell (A), USB (B)
Thursday: COF (A), FITB (B)
Friday: STI (B)

1:30 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1200/1225
DTX 459/469
DJIA 11475/11645
Nasdaq 2625/2665
OEX 545/555
VIX 28/30.5
Trin range: 0.80 - 1.10
Average VWAPs: +45/-47

October 13, 2011

1:15 pm ET: Overall market tone: Today the market is taking a rest to disgest its recent gains. It's hard to tell if this past rally was just a bear market rally or the start of a real one. One telling factor was the lack of upside volume--but is that lack of volume due to investor fear or to a lack of compelling fundamentals? It's not easy to tell but I think the tone of this earnings season is going to be especially important. If companies are really on track, then we'll know that the market is being driven primarily on fear and that when the fear finally subsides, we should see a major upward movement. The fear gauge, reflected in the VIX, will tell us when fear and uncertainty have been tamed. Yesterday, the VIX fell into bullish territory (below 30) for one brief shining moment but was unable to close out the day there--wah! But perhaps yesterday was the harbinger of better days to come. We'll find out soon enough...

Earnings Watch: Master-of-the-Universe Google (GOOG) reports today after the bell. Chartwise, the stock just broke $550 resistance meaning that investors are expecting good news. I hope they get it because with this amount of enthusiasm, a disappointment could trigger a sell-off which honestly I don't think is going to happen. They're way too cool to let us down.

Reporting before the bell tomorrow is Mattel (MAT). The stock is sitting at a multi-year high and it looks as if any surprise to either side will cause the stock to either soar or plummet. I'll be waiting with bated breath to see how this toy story turns out. (Yes, I did have to use that pun.)

12:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1185/1207
DTX 450/462
DJIA 11310/11520
Nasdaq 2588/2606
OEX 535/547
VIX 31.25/33.25
Trin range: 0.65 - 1.05 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +34/-49 (mildly bearish)

October 12, 2011

1:40 pm ET: Overall market tone: Break out the bubbly 'cause the VIX--drumroll please, maestro!--has dipped below 30, a level it hasn't seen in over two months since the threat of a Greek default became big news. This 30 level is regarded as the bull/bear dividing line--above it is bearish, below it is bullish. Also marching into the bulls' camp today is the SPX which has risen above the 1200 psychological support/resistance level. It should be clear sailing now for the bulls at least until the next resistance level of 1220 in the SPX and 470 in the DTX. The only short term fly in the ointment is the Trin which is close to falling into contrarian territory. But hey, after seven--count 'em--seven days of gains (okay, one day was sideways), it's perfectly natural to see the market consolidate.

Trade Action: Now's the time to dust off your buyside watchlists so you can take advantage of the next leg up in the rally. If your list is bare and you're in need of some long ideas, use this reporting season to look for companies that have not only beaten their earnings estimates but have also raised guidance. These are the companies that are positioned to do well in the future. (As part of our subscriber services we maintain a database of these stocks along with databases of channeling stocks and compelling analyst upgrades.)

1:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1196/1220
DTX 455.5/468.5
DJIA 11420/11600
Nasdaq 2602/2631
OEX 541/553
VIX 29.3/32
Trin range: 0.5 - 0.75 (if Trin falls below 0.5, watch for a market reversal)
Average VWAPs: +76/-35 (moderately bullish)

October 11, 2011

1:40 pm ET: Overall market tone: Nothing much to say as there's no real news of any sort driving the market. Today's pivot points weren't obvious but it looks as if we should see the market attain higher ground before the day is done. If so, then bulls should start dusting off their watchlists and get ready to begin taking small positions as soon as the VIX falls below 30.

1:30 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1187.5/1201.5
DTX 448/460
DJIA 11360/11460
Nasdaq 2552/2598
OEX 538/544
VIX 32.35/34.25
Trin range: 0.55 - 1.0 (Trin has been bouncing between these bounds)
Average VWAPs: +47/-49 (rangebound)

October 10, 2011

12:55 pm ET: Overall market tone: The market is up on news that Merkel & Sarkozy (the undynamic duo) have announced a comprehensive package to recapitalize banks and keep Greece in the Eurozone. Details concerning this plan were typically vague but that didn't stop the major averages from rising. That's the good news. The bad news is that there's no conviction to this rally as evidenced by the low volume. Although the VIX has dropped, it's still high meaning there's still a lot of uncertainty out there. Given the sketchiness of the proposed bailout, why shouldn't there be?

12:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1174/1199
DTX 442.5/452.5
DJIA 11245/11445
Nasdaq 2520/2570
OEX 532/540
VIX 33/35.5
Trin range: 0.75 - 1.25 (Trin has been falling steadily which is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +47/-36 (rangebound)

October 7, 2011

1:45 pm ET: Overall market tone: Following three solid up days it's no surprise that we're getting a sell-off. But what's really telling is that the bulls have gone into hibernation as shown by the total lack of strength in the +VWAPs. The Trin is elevated, as expected, but it's not in contrarian range (over 2) so I'm not expecting a reversal (barring some late-day short-covering). More news keeps streaming out of European concerning the debt crisis and it would be prudent to shore up long positions before the weekend. Don't get caught sleeping like Goldilocks!

1:30 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1143.5/1171.5
DTX 431/445
DJIA 11020/11230
Nasdaq 2458/2512
OEX 520/530
VIX 35.25/38.75
Trin range: 0.70 - 1.55 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +1/-163 (very bearish)

October 6, 2011

1:30 pm ET: Overall market tone: The morning rally is showing signs of losing steam. The Trin is in bullish contrarian territory which typically indicates a reversal is in the offing. This is supported by a rising VIX. The market has been reacting off of news so any sort of tidbit regarding the European situation, however tiny, is likely to define short-term direction.

1:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1135/1165
DTX 429/445
DJIA 10860/11090
Nasdaq 2447/2509
OEX 514/528
VIX 35.75/38.75
Trin range: 0.45 - 0.75(Trin has been below 0.5 which is in contrarian territory)
Average VWAPs: +88/-36 (bullish, but +VWAPs well off their highs)

October 5, 2011

1:20 pm ET: Overall market tone: After yesterday's dramatic late-day rally, the market is taking a well-needed breather. Indicators at the close were in bullish contrarian territory which had me thinking that we'd see a huge move lower on the open. That didn't happen (and I'm still not sure why) but today ain't over yet. Could we see a late day sell-off mirroring yesterday's rally?

1:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1115/1140
DTX 420/432
DJIA 10750/10920
Nasdaq 2380/2460
OEX 505/517
VIX 37.75/41.25
Trin range: 0.6 - 1.0 (Trin has been rangebound this morning)
Average VWAPs: +52/-59 (VWAPS shifting between + & - reflecting rangebound activity)

October 4, 2011

1:20 pm ET: Overall market tone: Big Ben's comments earlier today sparked a rally, contrary to usual behavior. Right now, the internals are biased towards the bullish side but that could change at any minute. The elevated negative VWAPs indicate that the bears are still circling, waiting to gorge themselves on any sign of weakness. The SPX is clinging for dear life to its 1100 support level and a close under that should not be taken lightly. If you still need to lighten up on long positions or buy more portfolio insurance, now's the moment to do so because you may not get this opportunity for quite a while. Carpe diem!

1:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1075/1115
DTX 395/415
DJIA 10405/10745
Nasdaq 2300/2400
OEX 488/506
VIX 42/47
Trin range: 0.6 - 1.50 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +129/-51 (bulls in charge but bears prowling the perimeter)

October 3, 2011

1:50 pm ET: Overall market tone: This is the most bearish day I've seen in a long time. There is NOBODY on the buy side as evidenced by the lack of ANY stocks exhibiting positive VWAPS. A rising Trin and VIX is also bearish. Since neither one is in contrarian territory, there's no reason to expect any sort of rally, at least in the near term.

Next stop for the SPX is 1100 which it could test later today. But 1100 is only minor support. I'm fully expecting the index to sail right through it and continue on to 1165--its next major support.

1:45 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1106/1139
DTX 404/424
DJIA 10670/10980
Nasdaq 2350/2430
OEX 500/517
VIX 41.5/45
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.75 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +0/-197 (butt ugly bearish)