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Ho Ho Ho! Major averages (except transports) on track to close at record highs; Tech etfs pop to new highs (SOCL, BOTZ, ROBO, FDN, SOXX, VGT, XLK, XT, SKYY); China soars (YINN, FXI); Emerging markets take off (EEM, VWO, EZA); Consumer Discretionary (XLY) continues higher
November 21, 2017

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2589.2/2602.8
DTX 953/962
DJIA 23500/23640
Nasdaq 6820/6871
RUT 1503.4/1522.6
VIX 9.5/10.3 (plunging VIX is very bullish but VIX under 10 is becoming contrarian)
Trin range: 1.0 - 1.25 (neutral to bearish (!))
Average VWAPs: +96/-61 (bullish; selling in highly processed food makers (K, SJM, POST, CPB, HSY); buying in life science tool makers, home improvement, health care providers, aerospace & defense)

Gaming (BJK), Broker/Dealers (IAI), Tech/Internet (SOXX, ROBO, SKYY, SOCL, FDN), Thai funds (TTF, THD) hit new highs; Volatility gets crushed
November 20, 2017

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2578.2/2584.8
DTX 945.6/951.8
DJIA 23365/23470
Nasdaq 6780/6796
RUT 1492.9/1500.1
VIX 10.4/11.4 (falling VIX is bullish)
Trin range: 1.0 - 1.3 (bearish)
Average VWAPs: +75/-57 (bull/bear seesaw)

Retail (XRT, RTH) jumps as brick & mortar retailers post better than expected earnings helping to push Consumer Discretionary (XLY) to a record high. Is this the start of the Santa Rally?
November 17, 2017

2:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2578.8/2585.2
DTX 946.3/956.1
DJIA 23335/23435
Nasdaq 6778/6802
RUT 1481.1/1501.1
VIX 11.1/11.7 (bullish)
Trin range: 0.65 - 0.9 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +73/-63 (bull/bear seesaw)

*** The Stock Market Cook Book is out of town today. ***
November 15, 2017

Corn (CORN) slumps to another new low; Livestock (COW) breaks support as Soybeans (SOYB) slump; Oil tanks; Shippers (SEA) goes underwater; Biotech bombs; Euro (FXE), Swissie (FXF) pop as USD (UUP) drops; Junk bonds getting tossed into the dumpster; Volatility continues to rise
November 14, 2017

2:25 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2566.6/2583.8
DTX 946.9/952.1
DJIA 23270/23450
Nasdaq 6709/6745
RUT 1463.7/1474.3
VIX 11.2/12.6 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is overall bullish)
Trin range: 1.2 - 1.5 (bearish)
Average VWAPs: +80/-90 (bull/bear battle)

Utilities (XLU), Consumer Discretionary (XLY) notch record highs; Hong Kong etf (EWH) rallies to record high as other global funds break down (EWG, EWJ, EFA, ILF, EWU, GREK) ; Tesla (TSLA) jumps on news that it will unveil its electric semi-truck on Thursday
November 13, 2017

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2575/2586
DTX 945.9/952.7
DJIA 23345/23465
Nasdaq 6723/6763
RUT 1466.1/1478.9
VIX 10.6/12 (VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.7 - 1.15 (bullish to slightly bearish)
Average VWAPs: +105/-68 (rotation out of biotech, retail, food products and into utilities, home builders)

Cocoa (NIB) pushes above resistance; S. American & Latin American funds sell-off
November 10, 2017

2:30 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2575.6/2584.4
DTX 948.5/952.5
DJIA 23395/23475
Nasdaq 6727/6763
RUT 1473.1/1478.9
VIX 10.6/11.6 (VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.6 - 0.9 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +78/-74 (bull/bear stand-off)

Transports fall below second line of support; Uranium (URA) soars on major producer Cameco's (CCJ) production cut; Corn (CORN) slides to record low; Euro funds sink; Wind energy (FAN) cools off
November 9, 2017

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2566.3/2588.1
DTX 949.5/960.5
DJIA 23310/23515
Nasdaq 6687/6759
RUT 1463.5/1482
VIX 9.8/12.2 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.6 - 0.85 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +95/-91 (sector rotation out of aero & defense, heavy machinery, semiconductors and into consumer discretionary esp. retail)

Transports test second line of support; REITs rally; Lithium (LIT) hops above major resistance; Palladium (PALL, SPPP) pops; Livestock (COW) drops; VIX volatility jumps
November 8, 2017

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2585/2596
DTX 959/965
DJIA 23510/23580
Nasdaq 6753/6792
RUT 1467.3/1480.7
VIX 9.55/10.3 (bullish to contrarian)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.05 (mildly bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +112/-87 (bull/bear battle)

Priceline (PCLN), TripAdvisor (TRIP) plummet on increased competition in the online travel space; Banks (KRE, KBE) tank causing Financial etf (XLF) to break first line of support; China pops while India drops; Market volatility on the rise
November 7, 2017

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2584/2597
DTX 965.7/976.7
DJIA 23480/23600
Nasdaq 6745/6795
RUT 1477/1498
VIX 9.3/10.3 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.65 - 0.8 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +63/-110 (bearish strength is increasing)

Oil & Gas gush (USO, UNG); REITs (VNQ), Solar (TAN), Gaming (BJK), Semis (SOXX) gain; Telecom (VOX) tanks
November 6, 2017

12:40 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2585.7/2591.7
DTX 972/976
DJIA 23520/23565
Nasdaq 6763/6792
RUT 1494.4/1500.2
VIX 9.4/9.8 (extremely contrarian)
Trin range: 0.6 - 0.8 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +81/-72 (bull/bear battle)

S&P, Dow on track to close at record highs; VIX retesting previous lows indicates high probability of a market reversal
November 3, 2017

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2576.8/2588.2
DTX 974.2/980.8
DJIA 23480/23570
Nasdaq 6713/6762
RUT 1490.7/1499.3
VIX 9.1/9.9 (extremely contrarian)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.1 (falliing Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +109/-71 (bull/bear battle; rotation out of auto component makers and back into biotech, healthcare, life science tools)

Telecom (VOX) testing major support; Tesla (TSLA) falling under support following disappointing earnings
November 2, 2017

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2566.2/2581.8
DTX 967.9/981.2
DJIA 23350/23510
Nasdaq 6678/6722
RUT 1487.7/1501.3
VIX 9.6/10.9 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX beneath 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 1.1 - 1.5 (bearish to contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +100/-124 (bull/bear battle)

Market selling off ahead of the Fed; Agribiz (MOO), Timber (CUT), Gaming (BJK) hit new highs; Oil explorers (XOP) break out; White metals (SLV, JJN, PPLT) pop; Pacific Rim funds (EWY, VNM, EWJ) soar; Bonds slide
November 1, 2017

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2574/2588.4
DTX 973.1/984.1
DJIA 23360/23520
Nasdaq 6686/6760
RUT 1482.2/1512.4
VIX 9.75/10.55 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX beneath 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.65-0.85 (bullish (!))
Average VWAPs: +49/-174 (very bearish)

Timber (CUT) notches another record high while Wheat (WEAT) and Nat Gas (UNG) sink to record lows; S. Korea fund (EWY) soars to new high as other global funds join in the rally
October 31, 2017

2:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2572.2/2579.8
DTX 975.8/982.2
DJIA 23335/23405
Nasdaq 6706/6739
RUT 1491.4/1506.4
VIX 9.9/10.5 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX beneath 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 1.25 - 1.45 (rising Trin is bearish to contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +114/-58 (bullish; buying in internet/software/semis and selling in athletic apparel makers)

Consumer Staples (XLP) breaks next support level; Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Facebook (FB) rally to record highs; Egypt etf (EGPT) breaks out
October 30, 2017

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2568/2580
DTX 980/990
DJIA 23310/23430
Nasdaq 6673/6727
RUT 1488.5/1507.5
VIX 10.1/11 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX beneath 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.6 - 0.9 (bullish (!))
Average VWAPs: +48/-120 (bearish; rotation out of biotech, transports and into casual dining restaurants, beer makers, media)

FANG stocks soar pushing S&P, Nasdaq to record highs; Oil (OIL, USO), Solar (TAN) surge as Copper (JJC) plunges; Heating oil/Diesel (UHN) breaks out; Wheat (WEAT) sinks to another record low; Vietnam etf (VNM) continues to soar; Consumer Discretionary (XLY) pops while Consumer Staples (XLP) drops
October 27, 2017

2:20 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2566/2586
DTX 987.8/994.2
DJIA 23355/23455
Nasdaq 6626/6724
RUT 1493.5/1507.5
VIX 9.6/10.35 (falling VIX is bullish but VIX beneath 10 is contrarian)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.2 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +154/-74 (very bullish but bears are grousing)

Greenback (UUP) breaks out as Aussie (FXA), Loonie (FXC), Swissie (FXF) break down; Materials (XLB) hits record high as Healthcare/Biotech/Pharma and REITs drop; Vietnam etf (VNM) rallies to new yearly high
October 26, 2017

12:45 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2559.8/2568.2
DTX 983.5/996.5
DJIA 23380/23480
Nasdaq 6550/6590
RUT 1494.1/1503.1
VIX 10.45/11.35 (falling VIX is bullish)
Trin range: 1.2 - 1.5 (rising Trin is bearish but Trin in the 1.5 range is contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +81/-88 (rotation out of aero & defense, airlines, healthcare and into auto parts retailers, railroads)

Transports tank to test support; Canadian dollar (FXC) and Aussie dollar (FXA) plunge; Consumer Staples (XLP) slides below support
October 25, 2017

2:20 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2544/2568
DTX 976.5/955.3
DJIA 23230/23450
Nasdaq 6510/6600
RUT 1482.5/1500.4
VIX 11/13.2 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is still bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.95 - 1.25 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +106/-77 (bulls step in after early morning sell-off; rotation out of transports, Chinese internet, aerospace, biotech)

Financials (XLF) push Dow to record high; New Zealand dollar ($NZD) rocketing
October 24, 2017

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2565.8/2572.2
DTX 992.5/999.5
DJIA 23345/23495
Nasdaq 6582/6618
RUT 1498.2/1506.8
VIX 10.4/11.1 (bullish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.0 (moderately bullish)
Average VWAPs: +97/-72 (bullish but bears are grumbling)

Solar (TAN) pops to new yearly high; Dow inches into record territory; Swissie (FXF) continues to slide
October 23, 2017

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2571.1/2578.3
DTX 994/1000.8
DJIA 23320/23370
Nasdaq 6603/6642
RUT 1501.5/1511.5
VIX 9.95/10.45 (bullish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.1 (moderately bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +57/-71 (bull/bear seesaw)

S&P, Dow, Nasdaq on track to close at record highs; Water (PIO, PHO), Homebuilders (XHB) also move to record highs; Financials (XLF) breaking out to new high; REITs, Swissie (FXF), Loonie (FXC), Bonds slide
October 20, 2017

2:30 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2567.5/2575.5
DTX 993/1001
DJIA 23200/23350
Nasdaq 6624/6644
RUT 1504.7/1514.3
VIX 9.55/10.05 (falling VIX is bullish but VIX under 10 is becoming contrarian (yes, again!))
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.2 (moderately bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +91/-52 (bullish)

Tech sell-off tanks Nasdaq; China, Emerging Markets, Thai funds drop; New Zealand dollar ($NZD) pops; Oil producer/servicer funds breach support levels
October 19, 2017

2:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2548/2560
DTX 979/988
DJIA 23050/23165
Nasdaq 6559/6603
RUT 1491.4/1503
VIX 10/11.1 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.1 (mildly bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +120/-42 (bullish)

Strong IBM earnings pushes Dow to all-time high; S&P inches into record territory as well
October 18, 2017

1:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2559.7/2565.5
DTX 983.7/991.3
DJIA 23085/23175
Nasdaq 6614/6636
RUT 1498/1508.2
VIX 9.8/10.4 (bullish)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.15 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +73/-60 (bulls with the edge)

All's quiet on the market front; Facebook (FB) looking to close at a record high
October 17, 2017

12:35 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2554.5/2558.5
DTX 977.4/987.6
DJIA 22950/23000
Nasdaq 6613/6631
RUT 1500.5/1506
VIX 9.9/10.45 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.1 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +59/-55 (bull/bear seesaw)

Copper (JJC) soars; Retail (XRT, RTH), Mexico funds (EWW, MXF) continue to slide; Rotation out of biotech, healthcare, pharma and into internet, semis, social media
October 16, 2017

12:30 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2551.5/2559.5
DTX 978.8/997.2
DJIA 22875/22945
Nasdaq 6607/6633
RUT 1498.7/1511.3
VIX 9.8/10.2 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.75 - 0.95 (falling Trin is bullish (!))
Average VWAPs: +43/-84 (bearish)

Transports shift into reverse; Metals, Tech, Materials continue to march higher; Global funds, US bonds see strength; New Zealand dollar ($NZD) drops
October 13, 2017

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2552/2559.4
DTX 996/1008
DJIA 22860/22905
Nasdaq 6602/6620
RUT 1502.7/1508.9
VIX 9.35/9.9 (contrarian)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.2 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +67/-66 (bull/bear stand-off)

Transports finally looking to close above millennial mark; Base metals jump; Retail flops; Microsoft (MSFT) continues to notch record highs
October 12, 2017

1:20 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2549.5/2556.3
DTX 996.1/1004.9
DJIA 22830/22900
Nasdaq 6586/6618
RUT 1501.1/1511.9
VIX 9.55/10.35 (bullish to contrarian)
Trin range: 1.25 - 1.6 (very bearish/contrarian (!))
Average VWAPs: +66/-56 (bull/bear stand-off)

Europe, Japan, Thai funds move to new yearly highs; US major averages stall out as buying pressure wanes
October 11, 2017

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2548/2553.8
DTX 993/1001
DJIA 22820/22860
Nasdaq 6578/6602
RUT 1505.4/1510.6
VIX 9.9/10.3 (bullish)
Trin range: 1.05 - 1.45 (bearish)
Average VWAPs: +62/-58 (bull/bear stand-off)

Popping: Precious metals, Oil, Foreign currencies, Thai funds (TTF, THD), Euro funds, Wal-Mart (WMT); Dropping: USD (UUP), Mexico funds (EWW, MXF)
October 10, 2017

2:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2541.8/2555.2
DTX 991.2/998.8
DJIA 22770/22850
Nasdaq 6557/6608
RUT 1503.5/1511.3
VIX 9.95/10.7 (bullish)
Trin range: 0.95 - 1.3 (neutral to bearish)
Average VWAPs: +48/-75 (selling pressure increasing)

Semis (SMH, SOXX) float higher/Retail (XRT, RTH) gets a mark-down; Japan (EWJ) moves to ten year high while Turkey (TUR, TKF) tumbles
October 9, 2017

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2545.2/2551.8
DTX 982/992
DJIA 22750/22805
Nasdaq 6581/6599
RUT 1501.9/1513.3
VIX 9.8/10.2 (bullish)
Trin range: 0.95 - 1.15 (neutral to mildly bearish)
Average VWAPs: +46/-62 (buying pressure waning)

Precious metals firm up; Mexico etfs (EWW, MXF) break second level of support; Volatility jumps
October 6, 2017

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2542.6/2549.4
DTX 984.3/994.7
DJIA 22730/22770
Nasdaq 6567/6588
RUT 1505.6/1511.4
VIX 9.35/10.4 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.7 - 0.9 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +64/-57 (neutral)

Tech, Financials move major averages to new record highs; US Dollar (UUP) & N. Zealand dollar ($NZD) break out as Swissie (FXF), Pound (FXB), Aussie Dollar (FXA) break down; Microsoft (MSFT), Netflix (NFLX) notch record highs; Copper (JJC), China etfs jump
October 5, 2017

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2540/2553
DTX 986.1/993.9
DJIA 22655/22795
Nasdaq 6548/6577
RUT 1508.1/1514.9
VIX 9.1/9.75 (extremely bullish/contrarian)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.05 (moderately bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +73/-50 (bull/bear battle)

Transports push above the millennium mark; Timber (CUT), Water, Homebuilders (XHB) march to new highs
October 4, 2017

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2531.8/2540.5
DTX 992.2/1001
DJIA 22633/22692
Nasdaq 6513/6546
RUT 1503.8/1514.8
VIX 9.5/9.9 (bullish/contrarian)
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.1 (mildly bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +75/-60 (bull/bear battle)

Tech rally helps push market higher; China funds pop; Egypt etf (EGPT) breaks out
October 3, 2017

12:40 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2528.9/2532.7
DTX 990.3/996.7
DJIA 22565/22675
Nasdaq 6510/6532
RUT 1498.4/1511.6
VIX 9.45/9.75 (bullish/contrarian)
Trin range: 0.6 - 0.8 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +69/-62 (bull/bear battle)

Record highs in semis (SOXX, SMH), Water (FIW, PIO,PHO), Biotech (XBI, IBB, FBT); S&P, Russell, Dow, Nasdaq on track to close at record highs
October 2, 2017

12:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2520.4/2529.6
DTX 982.5/993.1
DJIA 22420/22540
Nasdaq 6483/6527
RUT 1491/1500.2
VIX 9.05/10.05 (extremely bullish/contrarian)
Trin range: 1.0 - 1.2 (neutral to bearish)
Average VWAPs: +78/-63 (bull/bear battle)

Record highs in semis (SOXX, SMH), Internet (FDN, SKYY) push Nasdaq to record high; S&P, Russell on track to close at more record highs
September 29, 2017

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2508/2519
DTX 989.1/993.5
DJIA 22335/22395
Nasdaq 6455/6504
RUT 1488.8/1494.6
VIX 9.4/9.8 (extremely bullish/contrarian)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.1 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +88/-51 (moderately bullish)

S&P, Transports, Russell looking to close at record highs
September 28, 2017

12:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2502.9/2511.1
DTX 982.5/992.5
DJIA 22290/22410
Nasdaq 6428/6452
RUT 1482.2/1486.8
VIX 9.7/10.15 (bullish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.2 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +82/-50 (moderately bullish)

Russell soars; Interest rate sensitive issues fall (bonds, utes); Precious metals tumble; Financials (XLF), Banks (KRE, KBE) Brokers (IAI) break out; India, Greece, Emerging Markets plunge
September 27, 2017

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2495.9/2507.6
DTX 978.7/985.3
DJIA 22250/22370
Nasdaq 6405/6460
RUT 1457.3/1485.3
VIX 9.8/10.4 (bullish)
Trin range: 0.95 - 1.15 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +133/-53 (very bullish)

Transports, Russell 2000 on track to close at record highs
September 26, 2017

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2495.2/2504.8
DTX 970.6/980.2
DJIA 22270/22370
Nasdaq 6365/6410
RUT 1452.8/1459.7
VIX 9.9/10.7 (bullish)
Trin range: 0.95 - 1.35 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +77/-62 (neutral)

Oil (USO, OIL) rallies; Diesel (UHN) breaks out to new yearly high; Tech (XLK), IT (VGT), China, India, Lithium (LIT) tumble
September 25, 2017

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2488/2502.5
DTX 963.9/972.5
DJIA 22210/22360
Nasdaq 6344/6408
RUT 1444.8/1455.2
VIX 9.8/11.3 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.7 - 1.1 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +47/-98 (bearish)

Lithium (LIT), Bitcoin trust (GBTC), REITs (VNQ) tumble; India, China, Thai etfs drop
September 22, 2017

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2497.3/2501.3
DTX 965.2/970.8
DJIA 22295/22365
Nasdaq 6401/6431
RUT 1441.8/1453.4
VIX 9.7/10.3 (very bullish to contrarian)
Trin range: 1.15 - 1.6 (very bearish to contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +84/-60 (bulls withe the edge but bears are grousing around)

Apple (AAPL) violates major support; Silver (SLV, PSLV) and gold miners (GDX, GDXJ) drop through support levels; The Great White North funds, Canada (EWC) and Norway (NORW), rally to new highs; Low volatility an indication of an impending market reversal?
September 21, 2017

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2499/2508.6
DTX 961.9/971.7
DJIA 22360/22420
Nasdaq 6405/6460
RUT 1441.7/1450.3
VIX 9.4/10.2 (very bullish to contrarian)
Trin range: 1.0 - 1.5 (very bearish to contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +89/-48 (bullish (!))

Aussie dollar soaring as New Zealand dollar plummets; Water etfs hit new highs (PHO, FIW); Transports on the move
September 20, 2017

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2504.3/2508.9
DTX 951.6/965.4
DJIA 22350/22400
Nasdaq 6429/6466
RUT 1440/1447
VIX 9.85/10.35 (very bullish; VIX under 10 is becoming contrarian)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.2 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +67/-87 (buying in aero & defense, transports; selling continues in REITs; fairly heavy selling in semis)

Market on hold pending tomorrow's Fed rate decision; Aero & defense (PPA), Gaming (BJK), Materials (XLB) inch up to new highs
September 19, 2017

2:20 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2503.2/2507.8
DTX 948.1/954.9
DJIA 22340/22395
Nasdaq 6447/6468
RUT 1437.4/1442.6
VIX 9.85/10.35 (very bullish; VIX under 10 is becoming contrarian)
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.1 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +66/-71 (buying in aero & defense, gaming, hotels, machinery; selling in REITs, healthcare, biotech, pharma)

Nasdaq, Dow, S&P notch record highs; Lithium (LIT), China soar; Utes etf (XLU) breaks first line of support; Precious metals (GLD, SLV) tank; Bitcoin trust (GBTC) tops major resistance
September 18, 2017

1:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2501.9/2509.9
DTX 950.8/956.4
DJIA 22285/22385
Nasdaq 6455/6480
RUT 1431.7/1442.5
VIX 9.85/10.35 (very bullish; VIX under 10 is becoming contrarian)
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.1 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +74/-62 (buying in aero & defense, semi-conductors; selling in REITs, utes, consumer discretionary)

Bitcoin trust (GBTC) stages strong rebound; British Pound (FXB) soars; Agribiz (MOO) hits new yearly high; Global stocks continue to climb
September 15, 2017

1:45 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2493.2/2499.8
DTX 946.7/953.3
DJIA 22215/22265
Nasdaq 6420/6470
RUT 1422.3/1429.3
VIX 10/10.5 (very bullish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.1 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +83/-72 (bull/bear battle)

Bitcoin trust (GBTC) takes another dive; Coal (KOL) breaks first level of support; Solar (TAN), British Pound (FXB) stage stealth breakouts; Industrials on track to close at record high
September 14, 2017

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2491.4/2499.6
DTX 949.1/957.5
DJIA 22140/22210
Nasdaq 6424/6461
RUT 1421.6/1429.4
VIX 10.1/10.75 (very bullish)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.1 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +68/-71 (bull/bear battle)

Bitcoin fund (GBTC) plunges; Oil & Oil producers/servicers rally; Metals fall
September 13, 2017

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2492.2/2498.8
DTX 947.8/953.8
DJIA 22100/22150
Nasdaq 6433/6457
RUT 1421.9/1429.1
VIX 10.45/10.75 (very bullish)
Trin range: 0.75 - 0.95 (moderately bullish)
Average VWAPs: +68/-78 (bull/bear battle)

Interest rate sensitive issues (BND, VNQ, XLU) stumble pushing stocks higher; Lithium (LIT) goes parabolic; Homebuilder funds (XHB, ITB) hit new highs; Global markets continue to outperform
September 12, 2017

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2490.4/2496.6
DTX 949/955
DJIA 22085/22135
Nasdaq 6430/6456
RUT 1415.3/1424.1
VIX 10.3/11.2 (very bullish)
Trin range: 0.6 - 0.9 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +87/-67 (rotation out of interest rate sensitive issues (bonds, REITs, utes) and into restaurants, retail, oil and gas producers/servicers)

*** The Stock Market Cook Book is out of the office today. We shall return tomorrow.***
September 11, 2017

Timber (CUT) notches record high; Base metals (DBB, JJC) nose dive; Insurance (KIE) firms up; Telecom (VOX) continues to tumble; Aussie dollar (FXA) breaks out
September 8, 2017

1:30 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2459.4/2468.6
DTX 929.6/939.6
DJIA 21730/21880
Nasdaq 6370/6395
RUT 1394.4/1404
VIX 11.6/12.5 (bullish)
Trin range: 1.3 - 1.7 (very bearish/contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +105/-69 (rotation out of oil & gas producers/servicers and into insurance)

Healthcare etf (XLV) notches record high; Financials, banks, insurance funds (XLF, KRE, KBE, KIE) break down
September 7, 2017

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2459.4/2468.6
DTX 929.8/935.6
DJIA 21730/21850
Nasdaq 6380/6413
RUT 1392.7/1404.3
VIX 11.3/12.1 (bullish)
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.1 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +91/-70 (rotation out of financials, banks, insurance and into healthcare, pharma, and internet issues)

Commodity based currencies (FXC, BZF) and countries (EWC, BRF) rally
September 6, 2017

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2458.2/2468.6
DTX 923.8/935
DJIA 21790/21850
Nasdaq 6356/6412
RUT 1399.3/1406.7
VIX 11.2/12.6 (bullish)
Trin range: 0.7 - 1.1 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +104/-51 (bullish, but bears still in the background)

Risk-on trade boosting gold, bonds, and volatility; Financial etf (XLF) breaking first line of support; Cotton (BAL) soars; Oil (OIL, USO) jumps
September 5, 2017

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2440.4/2472
DTX 924.4/933.6
DJIA 21680/21920
Nasdaq 6321/6427
RUT 1387.5/1414.5
VIX 11.4/14.1 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is overall bullish--for now)
Trin range: 0.75 - 0.95 (bullish (!))
Average VWAPs: +45/-102 (bearish)

Bitcoin etf (GBTC) plunges on heavy selling; BRIC, EM funds continue to soar; Dividend paying stock funds roar back; Coal (KOL), Lithium (LIT) rise to new highs; Exhaustion setting in on Aero & Defense etf (PPA)
September 1, 2017

1:40 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2473.9/2483.1
DTX 934.1/940.9
DJIA 21975/22040
Nasdaq 6418/6452
RUT 1405.8/1412.8
VIX 9.85/10.5 (falling VIX is bullish but VIX dropping under 10 is becoming contrarian)
Trin range: 0.7 - 1.0 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +59/-58 (bull/bear standoff)

Softs reverse course; Biotech etfs hit new highs; Bitcoin (GBTC) showing exhaustion as it nears another record high; Russia etfs jump
August 31, 2017

2:20 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2462.7/2471.1
DTX 929.3/936.3
DJIA 21905/21985
Nasdaq 6384/6426
RUT 1392/1410
VIX 10.5/11 (very bullish)
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.2 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +89/-48 (bullish)

Upwardly revised GDP boosts the market; Biotech jumps on new cancer therapies and M&A activity; Tech (XLK) inches to new yearly high on rally in FANG stocks
August 30, 2017

1:45 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2443.8/2460.2
DTX 925/935
DJIA 21840/21920
Nasdaq 6304/6372
RUT 1381.2/1392.6
VIX 10.6/11.3 (bullish)
Trin range: 1.0 - 1.4 (rising Trin is bearish (!))
Average VWAPs: +124/-30 (bullish)

Bonds pop; Bitcoin hits record high; Bulls re-enter the ring
August 29, 2017

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2428.5/2445.5
DTX 908.7/923.3
DJIA 21675/21875
Nasdaq 6229/6311
RUT 1371.8/1386.8
VIX 11/13.6 (bullish)
Trin range: 0.75 - 1.1 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +92/-39 (bullish)

Precious metals perk up; USD (UUP) breaks major support
August 28, 2017

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2437.7/2449.1
DTX 910.8/917.2
DJIA 21750/21860
Nasdaq 6268/6295
RUT 1376.7/1382.3
VIX 11.25/12.05 (bullish)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.1 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +62/-62 (bull/bear seesaw)

Global markets continue to soar; US Transports rebound
August 25, 2017

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2440.8/2454
DTX 904.2/919.2
DJIA 21795/21905
Nasdaq 6251/6309
RUT 1372.9/1380.1
VIX 10.95/12.05 (falling VIX is bullish)
Trin range: 0.75 - 1.15 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +53/-78 (mildly bearish)

Emerging and frontier markets soar while lethargy sets in on US markets
August 24, 2017

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2436.2/2450.4
DTX 900.5/913.5
DJIA 21765/21870
Nasdaq 6237/6303
RUT 1369.9/1377.1
VIX 11.6/13 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX below 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.7 - 1.0 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +48/-86 (bears with the edge)

Corn etf (CORN) slumps to record low; Coal (KOL) continues to rally, now testing major resistance
August 23, 2017

2:25 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2441.6/2450
DTX 905.9/917.6
DJIA 21810/21880
Nasdaq 6263/6297
RUT 1363.2/1376
VIX 11.5/12.6 (bullish)
Trin range: 0.65 - 0.85 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +49/-67 (light trading; buying into REITs, selling in heavy machinery and aero & defense)

Grain funds (WEAT, JJG) slump to record lows
August 22, 2017

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2433.7/2452.7
DTX 914/919.2
DJIA 21740/21880
Nasdaq 6241/6309
RUT 1357.9/1372.1
VIX 11.4/12.6 (falling VIX is bullish)
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.4 (Trin falling from the open is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +83/-47 (moderately bullish; risk-on buying in aero & defense, biotech, healthcare; selling pressure in airlines)

Market movement eclipsed by the sun; Sports apparel makers (FL, NKE, UA) lose more ground; FAANG stocks all testing support
August 21, 2017

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2417.4/2434.6
DTX 907.8/915
DJIA 21600/21740
Nasdaq 6177/6233
RUT 1351.2/1361.6
VIX 12.95/14.45 (bullish)
Trin range: 0.75 - 1.35 (bullish to bearish)
Average VWAPs: +59/-56 (bull/bear seesaw)

***The Stock Market Cook Book is on vacation. We shall be back on Monday, August 21st.***
August 16, 2017

Energy etf (XLE) sinks to new yearly low as oil services and explorers continue to slide; Apple (AALP) notches another record high
August 15, 2017

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2460.2/2468.9
DTX 933.7/938.7
DJIA 21970/22030
Nasdaq 6322/6351
RUT 1381.1/1395.9
VIX 11.75/12.4 (bullish)
Trin range: 0.65 - 0.95 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +53/-73 (bull/bear seesaw)

Market rebounds on ease in global tensions; Bitcoin (GBTC) jumps to record high; Grains (JJG, GRU) fall to record lows; Frontier Markets (FM) pop
August 14, 2017

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2455/2471
DTX 923.6/938.1
DJIA 21945/22055
Nasdaq 6306/6354
RUT 1375.1/1395.3
VIX 11.9/13.1 (falling VIX is bullish; VIX moving back under 15 means bulls are back in control)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.25 (neutral to mildly bearish (!))
Average VWAPs: +72/-51 (bulls with the edge)

The Stock Market Cook Book is on vacation today. We shall be back on Monday, August 14th. Have a good weekend!
August 11, 2017

Industrials, Nasdaq, Russell break first lines of support; Russia, China, India, Emerging Markets tank; Biotech, Healthcare, Ag commodities sell-off hard; Bitcoin (GBTC) rallies to record high; Volatility spikes
August 10, 2017

1:35 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2442.6/2465.4
DTX 910.2/921.8
DJIA 21870/21990
Nasdaq 6232/6318
RUT 1369.5/1396.5
VIX 12.9/15.6 (rising VIX is bearish; if VIX closes over 15 means that bears are gaining control)
Trin range: 0.6 - 0.8 (falling Trin is bullish (!))
Average VWAPs: +38/-110 (very bearish)

Volatility jumps as Industrials, Russell test support levels
August 9, 2017

2:20 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2462/2476
DTX 918/927
DJIA 21995/22055
Nasdaq 6310/6370
RUT 1395/1409
VIX 11.05/12.55 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is still bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.7 - 0.9 (falling Trin is bullish (!))
Average VWAPs: +71/-8 (bull/bear battle)

Base metals jump (JJC JJM, JJU, DBB); Oil services (PXJ, OIH, XES) sink to new lows; Apple (AAPL), Priceline (PCLN) notch record highs
August 8, 2017

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2475.5/2493.7
DTX 921/934
DJIA 22080/22185
Nasdaq 6364/6431
RUT 1410/1426
VIX 9.5/10.5 (VIX under 10 is contrarian)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.05 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +64/-66 (bull/bear battle; selling in aero & defense, financials, materials)

Copper (JJC) tops resistance to hit a new yearly high; Emerging markets (VWO, EEM, PXH) rally continues
August 7, 2017

2:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2475.8/2480.8
DTX 926/930
DJIA 22080/22130 (record high)
Nasdaq 6356/6389
RUT 1408.6/1417.4
VIX 9.7/10.25 (VIX under 10 is contrarian)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.1 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +82/-52 (bulls with the edge)

Good jobs report props up dollar and financials, sinks gold
August 4, 2017

1:35 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2472/2480
DTX 918.8/929.2
DJIA 22025/22095 (record high)
Nasdaq 6330/6365
RUT 1405.1/1414.9
VIX 9.5/10.2 (VIX under 10 is contrarian)
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.15 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +80/-72 (bull/bear stand-off)

Teva (TEVA) tumbles on bad earnings causing drop in Israel (EIS) and Pharma (PPH) etfs
August 3, 2017

1:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2469.8/2476
DTX 912.7/921.3
DJIA 21990/22045
Nasdaq 6326/6368
RUT 1407.7/1414.7 (breaking support)
VIX 9.85/10.55 (VIX under 10 is contrarian)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.15 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +85/-79 (buying in aero & defense, software; selling in oil explorers, generic drug makers)

Lithium (LIT) pops; Greenback (UUP) tests major support as Euro (FXE) tests major resistance
August 2, 2017

2:20 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2466.5/2481.5
DTX 911.2/918.2
DJIA 21965/22045 (record high due to heavy weighting in Apple)
Nasdaq 6314/6394
RUT 1408/1428 (breaking support)
VIX 9.8/10.8 (VIX under 10 is contrarian)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.3 (bull/bear battle)
Average VWAPs: +96/-80 (bull/bear battle)

Market divergence: Transports continue to break down as Industrials continue to rally to record highs
August 1, 2017

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2471.1/2478.9
DTX 910.7/924.3
DJIA 21940/21990
Nasdaq 6342/6376
RUT 1419.3/1430.7
VIX 9.85/10.55 (falling VIX is bullish but VIX under 10 is contrarian)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.15 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +82/-68 (bull/bear battle)

Euro (FXE) rallies to 2 year high; Junk bond funds (HYT, HYB) rise to new yearly highs; Amazon (AMZN) breaks support as other FAANG stocks slump in sympathy
July 31, 2017

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2467/2478
DTX 918.9/925.6
DJIA 21860/21940
Nasdaq 6332/6396
RUT 1416.5/1432.5
VIX 10.15/10.85 (falling VIX is bullish)
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.25 (neutral to moderately bearish)
Average VWAPs: +59/-88 (selling in FAANG and related hi-tech issues)

USD (UUP) slumps to new yearly low; Swiss Franc (FXF) plunges against the Euro (FXE)
July 28, 2017

2:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2465/2474.4
DTX 915.7/922.7
DJIA 21755/21815
Nasdaq 6337/6497
RUT 1425.4/1432.6
VIX 10.5/11.3 (rising VIX is bearish but under 15 is still overall bullish)
Trin range: 1.0 - 1.3 (bearish)
Average VWAPs: +115/-70 (bullish--for now; buying in yesterday's beaten down groups; selling in energy names)

VIX spikes on broad market sell-off; Biotech, tech getting hammered
July 27, 2017

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2458.9/2482.9
DTX 912.9/942.1
DJIA 21675/21790
Nasdaq 6318/6460
RUT 1427.2/1446.6
VIX 9.15/11.65 (rising VIX is bearish (and it's about time!))
Trin range: 0.75 - 1.05 (bullish to neutral (!))
Average VWAPs: +52/-210 (extremely bearish/contrarian (!); buying in auto parts retailers; strong selling in FAANG stocks, semis, biotechs)

Market quiet ahead of the Fed
July 26, 2017

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2476.3/2481.7
DTX 946.3/952.7
DJIA 21675/21745
Nasdaq 6413/6432
RUT 1444/1452
VIX 9.15/9.55 (extremely bullish/contrarian)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.0 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +65/-92 (bears gaining strength)

S&P. Nasdaq, Russell on track to close at record highs; Copper (JJC) jumps to new high, Miners (XME) breaks out
July 25, 2017

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2474.9/2483.7
DTX 947.2/955.8
DJIA 21575/21685
Nasdaq 6397/6427
RUT 1438.9/1455.9
VIX 9.05/9.4 (extremely bullish/contrarian)
Trin range: 0.7 - 0.9 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +83/-55 (mildly bullish; sell-off in machinery)

Biotech etfs (XBI, FBT, BBH, IBB) notch new highs while Wheat (WEAT) breaks support
July 24, 2017

1:45 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2466.3/2472.7
DTX 943.7/948.3
DJIA 21485/21575
Nasdaq 6381/6405
RUT 1431.3/1436.9
VIX 9.45/9.90 (extremely bullish/contrarian)
Trin range: 0.7 - 0.9 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +70/-48 (neutral to mildly bullish; selling in oil & gas producers, retail (sporting goods, auto parts, discount stores), tobacco; buying in biotech)

Biotech, precious metals rise as oil, USD drop
July 21, 2017

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2465/2474
DTX 940.8/949.6
DJIA 21505/21595
Nasdaq 6365/6390
RUT 1432/1452
VIX 9.55/10 (extremely bullish/contrarian)
Trin range: 1.1 - 1.35 (bearish)
Average VWAPs: +70/-65 (neutral; selling in medical device makers & suppliers)

USD continues to drop; Russell notches another new high; Transports break first line of support; Money flowing back into biotech, pharma, healthcare
July 20, 2017

2:20 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2468.4/2478.2
DTX 942.5/956.5
DJIA 21575/21675
Nasdaq 6365/6410
RUT 1439/1446.6
VIX 9.5/10.3 (extremely bullish/contrarian)
Trin range: 1.0 - 1.35 (neutral to bearish)
Average VWAPs: +75/-55 (rotation out of internet/software stocks and into biotech, pharma, media)

S&P, Nasdaq, Russell reach record highs; Transports roll-over; Solar (TAN) jumps
July 19, 2017

1:40 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2463.9/2473.1
DTX 952.8/961.2
DJIA 21565/21635
Nasdaq 6362/6390
RUT 1428.3/1442.7
VIX 9.55/9.95 (extremely bullish/contrarian)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.2 (neutral to mildly bearish)
Average VWAPs: +88/-56 (rotation out of biotech, financials, rails and into solar, oil & gas drillers)

FAANG stocks on fire (FB, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL); Aussie Dollar soars as USD plummets
July 18, 2017

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2450.3/2461.7
DTX 960.1/969.3
DJIA 21470/21615
Nasdaq 6291/6343
RUT 1421.9/1431.1
VIX 9.75/10.35 (bullish/contrarian)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.2 (neutral to mildly bearish)
Average VWAPs: +81/-63 (selling in oil producers and retail names)

Major indices treading water while Materials (XLB), Aero & Defense (ITA, PPA) reach record highs
July 17, 2017

1:45 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2457.1/2463.5
DTX 964.2/974.2
DJIA 21615/21675
Nasdaq 6311/6331
RUT 1426/1437
VIX 9.6/10 (extremely bullish/contrarian)
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.3 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +68/-59 (bull/bear standoff)

The Bull Bash: S&P, Transports, Industrials, Russell on track to close at record highs
July 14, 2017

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2446.7/2460.7
DTX 968.7/974.7
DJIA 21520/21670
Nasdaq 6279/6316
RUT 1424.1/1430.9
VIX 9.65/10.1 (extremely bullish/contrarian)
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.05 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +76/-32 (bears have all but disappeared)

Corn, Soybeans, Grains, Telecom tumble (CORN, SOYB, WEAT, JJG, VOX, IYZ); Coffee (JO), Lithium (LIT) break out
July 13, 2017

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2441.7/2451.3
DTX 968.7/974.3
DJIA 21510/21585
Nasdaq 6251/6284
RUT 1416.3/1425.7
VIX 9.8/10.4 (extremely bullish/contrarian)
Trin range: 0.55 - 0.75 (very bullish to contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +52/-62 (neutral)

Loonie (FXC), Global markets leap; Aero & Defense funds (PPA, ITA) clinch record highs
July 12, 2017

1:30 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2435.8/2447.3
DTX 964.7/972.3
DJIA 21470/21580
Nasdaq 6237/6258
RUT 1414.3/1434.7
VIX 10.05/10.55 (bullish to contrarian)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.8 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +54/-66 (rotation out of Homebuilders and into Canadian banks (RY, TD, BMO, BNS, CM))

Consumer staples, retail, telecom slide (XLP, RTH, XRT, IYZ, VOX); Latin America (ILF) breaks out; Greece (GREK) ticks up to a new yearly high
July 11, 2017

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2412.8/2433.2
DTX 956.6/968.8
DJIA 21280/21500
Nasdaq 6150/6205
RUT 1402.6/1417.4
VIX 10.65/12.15 (bullish)
Trin range: 0.6 - 0.75 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +67/-48 (neutral)

****Happy Fourth of July!****
July 3, 2017

The Stock Market Cook Book is on vacation and will return July 11th. A happy, safe, and tasty holiday to all!













Wheat (WEAT) jumps on lower planting acreage estimates; Transports lead the market higher in light pre-holiday trading
June 30, 2017

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2421.8/2431
DTX 950.8/958.2
DJIA 21325/21410
Nasdaq 6129/6171
RUT 1413.3/1419.5
VIX 10.4/11.7 (bullish)
Trin range: 0.95 - 1.55 (neutral to bearish; Trin above 1.5 is contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +64/-48 (neutral; light pre-holiday trading volume)

REITs, Tech, Healthcare, Retail lead market sell-off; Sugar (SGG), VIX stage strong rebounds
June 29, 2017

2:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2400/2442.7
DTX 943/954
DJIA 21195/21485
Nasdaq 6089/6217
RUT 1402.6/1428
VIX 10.15/15.35 (rising VIX is bearish; VIX moving over 15 is bearish)
Trin range: 0.5 - 0.65 (falling Trin is bullish but near or below 0.5 is contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +34/-107 (bearish)

Bulls storm back lead by Transports & Small-caps ($RUT); Dollar (UUP) breaks down while the Loonie (FXC) jumps
June 28, 2017

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2428/2446.8
DTX 943.9/958.1
DJIA 21370/21520
Nasdaq 6145/6255
RUT 1404.5/1431.5
VIX 9.55/10.85 (falling VIX is bullish but VIX under 10 is contrarian)
Trin range: 0.7 - 0.95 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +119/-45 (bullish)

Market drops as Congress delays healthcare vote; Euro (FXE) pops/Bonds drop
June 27, 2017

2:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2420/2440
DTX 938.9/947.3
DJIA 21310/21440
Nasdaq 6166/6234
RUT 1406.8/1420.6
VIX 9.8/11.4 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.7 - 1.05 (bullish to neutral (!))
Average VWAPs: +26/-163 (very bearish)

Corn, Soybeans retest their record lows; Cloud Computing (SKYY) climbs to record high
June 23, 2017

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2431.1/2442.7
DTX 930.6/943.3
DJIA 21335/21435
Nasdaq 6219/6277
RUT 1402.8/1414.2
VIX 9.65/10.7 (falling VIX is bullish, but VIX under 10 is contrarian (indicating a potential market reversal))
Trin range: 0.75 - 1.2 (bullish to mildly bearish)
Average VWAPs: +87/-48 (mildly bullish)

Biotech, Healthcare, Pharma continue to soar; Ag commodities still tumbling; Solar (TAN) breaks out; Saudi Arabia (KSA) pops to a new high
June 22, 2017

1:35 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2433.3/2443.3
DTX 925.6/934.4
DJIA 21395/21470
Nasdaq 6222/6258
RUT 1396.9/1408.5
VIX 10.1/11 (VIX under 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 0.75 - 1.05 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +103/-43 (bullish)

Biotech explodes/Oil implodes; Coffee (JO), Sugar (SGG), Cocoa (NIB) continue to crumble; Russia (RSX, RBL), Frontier Markets (FM) break support
June 21, 2017

1:40 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2432.8/2442.2
DTX 926.4/933.6
DJIA 21405/21485
Nasdaq 6201/6237
RUT 1398.7/1411.9
VIX 10.4/11.1 (VIX under 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 0.65 - 0.95 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +86/-86 (bull/bear battle; rotation out of retail, REITs, energy and into biotech, healthcare, pharma)

Biotech, Healthcare continue to soar; Coffee (JO) slides to record low; Treasurys rise while Russia, Emerging currencies, Brit pound fall
June 20, 2017

2:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2439.3/2445.7
DTX 931.3/946.7
DJIA 21485/21535
Nasdaq 6196/6234
RUT 1404.2/1417.8
VIX 10.1/11.1 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is overall bullish)
Trin range: 0.6 - 0.8 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +62/-89 (bears with the edge; rotation out of food producers, casual dining, retail and into energy producers, biotech, and healthcare)

S&P, Industrials, Healthcare (XLV, IXJ, IHI) hit record highs
June 19, 2017

1:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2441.8/2454.2
DTX 940/948
DJIA 21435/21525
Nasdaq 6194/6236
RUT 1407/1417
VIX 10/10.7 (bullish)
Trin range: 0.65 - 0.9 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +91/-34 (bullish)

Retail (XRT), Consumer Staples (XLP) get clipped; Miners (XME) testing major support; Coffee (JO) grinds to a record low
June 16, 2017

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2422.9/2434.1
DTX 936/942
DJIA 21308/21399
Nasdaq 6125.5/6169.5
RUT 1397.8/1407.2
VIX 10.45/11.35 (VIX under 15 is overall bullish)
Trin range: 1.05 - 1.4 (bearish)
Average VWAPs: +80/-72 (bull/bear seesaw)

Tech, Energy lead global sell-off
June 15, 2017

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2418.5/2432.5
DTX 931.6/939.4
DJIA 21260/21390
Nasdaq 6108/6164
RUT 1402.5/1415.5
VIX 10.8/11.8 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is overall bullish)
Trin range: 1.0 - 1.5 (bearish)
Average VWAPs: +97/-70 (bulls with the edge: selling in biotech and energy)

Australia (EWA, FXA), Bonds jump/Oil (OIL, USO), Banks tank; Biotech (XBI, FBT) breaks out; Healthcare (XLV) hits record high
June 14, 2017

12:40 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2432.2/2443.8
DTX 936.6/947.4
DJIA 21295/21335
Nasdaq 6202/6238
RUT 1413/1426
VIX 10.15/11.25 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is overall bullish)
Trin range: 0.95 - 1.35 (bearish)
Average VWAPs: +71/-63 (neutral)

Industrials, Russell 2k, Materials (XLB), Timber (CUT) on track to close at record highs; Home Construction (ITB, XHB) raising the roof
June 13, 2017

2:25 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2431.8/2441.8
DTX 939.5/945.1
DJIA 21255/21335
Nasdaq 6180/6230
RUT 1430/1428
VIX 10.2/11 (falling VIX is bullish)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.4 (bearish!)
Average VWAPs: +76/-63 (neutral)

Loonie pops/Bitcoin, Brit Pound drop; REITS move up while Tech, China step down
June 12, 2017

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2416.6/2430.4
DTX 928.5/940.1
DJIA 21145/21275
Nasdaq 6111/6199
RUT 1415.1/1426.1
VIX 11.45/12.4 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.6 - 1.05 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +114/-68 (bullish)

Wild day on Wall Street: Tech tanks; VIX slides to 10 year low; Russell 2000 hits record high
June 9, 2017

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2431.9/2446.2
DTX 930.6/937
DJIA 21210/21310
Nasdaq 6232/6342
RUT 1416.2/1438.6
VIX 9.4/10.4 (falling VIX is bullish but VIX dropping under 10 is contrarian)
Trin range: 0.7 - 1.15 (mildly bullish to mildly bearish)
Average VWAPs: +75/-283 (extremely bearish; massive selling across the board in tech)

China, Financials, Gaming thrive; Consumer Staples, Utes dive
June 8, 2017

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2427.7/2439.3
DTX 927.7/936.9
DJIA 21155/21265
Nasdaq 6283/6322
RUT 1394.7/1421.3
VIX 9.55/10.55 (falling VIX is bullish but VIX dropping under 10 is contrarian)
Trin range: 0.95 - 1.25 (neutral to mildly bearish)
Average VWAPs: +105/-63 (bullish)

Bears rumble as oil crumbles
June 7, 2017

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2425/2435
DTX 922.5/932.5
DJIA 21105/21185
Nasdaq 6268/6300
RUT 1391.7/1400.3
VIX 10.1/11 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is still bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.4 (bearish)
Average VWAPs: +70/-83 (bull/bear battle)

Precious metals shine; USD (UUP) breaks $25 support level
June 6, 2017

1:40 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2428.1/2435.9
DTX 925.4/933.6
DJIA 21120/21190
Nasdaq 6279/6303
RUT 1386.7/1399.3
VIX 10.15/10.85 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is still bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.6 - 0.8 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +71/-78 (bull/bear battle)

Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) break millennial mark/Tesla (TSLA) tests a new high
June 5, 2017

1:40 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2434.3/2442.7
DTX 929/937
DJIA 21170/21240
Nasdaq 6291/6311
RUT 1397/1405.6
VIX 9.4/10.3 (VIX under 10 is contrarian)
Trin range: 0.7 - 1.0 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +65/-54 (neutral)

Tech groups, industrials, materials, discretionary hit record highs; US & global markets soar; Sugar (SGG) continues to plunge while coffee (JO) hits record low; Euro breaks out as USD breaks down
June 2, 2017

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2427.7/2441.7
DTX 929.7/941.7
DJIA 21130/21240
Nasdaq 6254/6314
RUT 1396/1420.5
VIX 9.3/10.6 (VIX under 10 is contrarian)
Trin range: 1.6 - 2.1 (extremely bearish/very contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +91/-43 (bullish)

S&P, Nasdaq reach record highs; Sugar (SGG) breaks major support
June 1, 2017

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2413.5/2428.5
DTX 917.2/6/930.8
DJIA 20995/21145
Nasdaq 6200/6240
RUT 1370.3/1391.7
VIX 9.95/10.55 (falling VIX is bullish but VIX under 10 is contrarian)
Trin range: 0.75 - 1.0 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +106/-32 (bullish)

Utilities etf (XLU) notches record high
May 31, 2017

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2400/2416
DTX 904.9/6/918.5
DJIA 20930/21050
Nasdaq 6153/6222
RUT 1354.5/1374.5
VIX 10.3/11.2 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 1.1 - 1.5 (bearish)
Average VWAPs: +59/-61 (bull/bear seesaw)

Biotech slices through the first line of support
May 30, 2017

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2409.5/2416.5
DTX 911/6/923
DJIA 21010/21080
Nasdaq 6195/6217
RUT 1369.8/1381.2
VIX 9.4/10.3 (VIX under 10 is very contrarian)
Trin range: 0.75 - 1.0 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +48/-77 (investors pulling the plug on biotech)

Volatility nearing historic low
May 26, 2017

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2412.2/2417.4
DTX 914.1/919.9
DJIA 21050/21100
Nasdaq 6197/6215
RUT 1376.1/1385.5
VIX 9.4/10.3 (VIX under 10 is very contrarian)
Trin range: 0.65 - 1.0 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +58/-65 (bull/bear battle; selling in biotech and REITs)

S&P, Nasdaq, Consumer Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU) hit record highs/Short term volatility (VXST) hits record low
May 25, 2017

12:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2408/2421.5
DTX 904.1/911.4
DJIA 21050/21110
Nasdaq 6175/6223
RUT 1380.6/1391.4
VIX 9.8/10.4 (VIX under 10 is very contrarian)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.4 (neutral to bearish)
Average VWAPs: +72/-80 (bull/bear battle)

Bitcoin (GBTC) going parabolic, but is it flying too high?
May 24, 2017

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2398.3/2401.7
DTX 900.2/904.8
DJIA 20935/20995
Nasdaq 6139/6157
RUT 1374/1386
VIX 10.2/10.9 (VIX nearing 10 is contrarian)
Trin range: 1.05 - 1.45 (neutral to bearish)
Average VWAPs: +75/-64 (bull/bear seesaw)

Bitcoin (GBTC) soars; Turkey funds (TUR,TKF) break out; Consumer Staples (XLP) on track to close at a record high
May 23, 2017

2:25 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2393.9/2401.1
DTX 893.3/904.3
DJIA 20895/20960
Nasdaq 6119/6151
RUT 1372/1383
VIX 10.6/11.1 (falling VIX is bullish; VIX under 15 is overall bullish)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.2 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +66/-69 (bull/bear seesaw)

Bitcoin hits record high (GBTC) while USD (UUP) tests major support
May 22, 2017

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2387/2396
DTX 889.8/898.2
DJIA 20860/20920
Nasdaq 6097/6141
RUT 1367.9/1378.1
VIX 11.05/11.85 (falling VIX is bullish; VIX under 15 is overall bullish)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.4 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +55/-61 (neutral: buying in utes, consumer staples/selling in restaurants)

Base metals, Euro currencies pop/USD drops
May 19, 2017

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2371.4/2393.6
DTX 882.5/895
DJIA 20690/20850
Nasdaq 6070/6116
RUT 1361.5/1377.7
VIX 11.2/13.3 (falling VIX is bullish; VIX under 15 is overall bullish)
Trin range: 0.55 - 0.7 (very bullish)
Average VWAPs: +88/-52 (bulls with the edge)

Risk-on trade back on; Soybeans, Timber (SOYB, CUT) break support
May 18, 2017

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2352.7/2377.3
DTX 874.5/888.5
DJIA 20555/20705
Nasdaq 5997/6083
RUT 1351/1366
VIX 13.7/15.7 (VIX under 15 is overall bullish)
Trin range: 1.0 - 1.6 (bearish contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +130/37 (bullish)

Flight to safety boosts gold, bonds, foreign currencies; Has the VIX become a proxy for a Trump impeachment?
May 17, 2017

Market Note (1:25pm ET): Note that the following support levels are very low and are based on chart-based pivot points. Just because they are low doesn't necessarily mean that the indices will hit those levels during the day's trading session, but it does strongly indicate that the preferred direction is to the downside.)

1:25 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2362.5/2384.9
DTX 873.5/900.5
DJIA 20615/20845
Nasdaq 6047/6123
RUT 1352/1388
VIX 12.25/13.75 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is overall bullish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 0.95 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +52/-93 (bearish)

Tech powers higher; Euro pops/USD breaks support; India, UK, Emerging Markets hit new highs
May 16, 2017

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2396/2405
DTX 901.2/908.3
DJIA 20935/21035
Nasdaq 6139/6165
RUT 1384.8/1396.8
VIX 10.15/10.55 (VIX under 15 is overall bullish)
Trin range: 0.7 - 0.9 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +75/-60 (bulls with the edge but bears aren't napping)

Nasdaq, S&P 500 hit record highs/Oil jumps on OPEC oil cuts
May 15, 2017

1:40 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2394/2406
DTX 901/912
DJIA 20925/21025
Nasdaq 6125/6160
RUT 1383.3/1402.9
VIX 10.2/10.8 (VIX under 15 is overall bullish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.1 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +75/-45 (bulls with the edge)

Retail getting marked down; Bonds jump; GE breaks major support following analyst downgrade
May 12, 2017

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2386.5/2392.5
DTX 895.5/904.5
DJIA 20865/20915
Nasdaq 6105/6124
RUT 1380/1390
VIX 10.45/10.95 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is overall bullish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.15 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +61/-51 (bull/bear seesaw; buying in biotech, Brazil, Argentina, India, Emerging Markets; selling in multi-line retailers continues (JCP reported dismal sales))

***The Stock Market Cook Book is off today and will be back tomorrow***
May 11, 2017

Oil rebounds/Semis soar/VIX volatility jumps
May 10, 2017

1:45 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2392.8/2402.8
DTX 904.5/912.7
DJIA 20905/20985
Nasdaq 6104/6134
RUT 1390.4/1400.6
VIX 9.6/10.15 (VIX below 10 is extremely contrarian)
Trin range: 0.6 - 0.8 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +104/-49 (bullish)

Bitcoin etf (GBTC) soars while Yen, Swissie (FXY, FXF) tank
May 9, 2017

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2395.1/2403.9
DTX 909.1/915.5
DJIA 20970/21050
Nasdaq 6107/6133
RUT 1388.8/1395.8
VIX 9.55/10.05 (VIX falling below 10 is extremely contrarian)
Trin range: 0.75 - 1.0 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +68/-60 (pretty much a repeat of yesterday's action)

Volatility (VIX) sinks to lowest level in over 10 years
May 8, 2017

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2394/2402
DTX 907.3/919.7
DJIA 20970/21020
Nasdaq 6083/6107
RUT 1386.1/1397.4
VIX 9.6/10.4 (VIX falling below 10 is extremely contrarian)
Trin range: 0.75 - 1.0 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +74/-67 (not much conviction on either side)

Euro, Argentina funds continue to soar
May 5, 2017

2:30 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2389.2/2394.8
DTX 912.8/918.2
DJIA 20900/20980
Nasdaq 6067/6093
RUT 1385.2/1394.8
VIX 10.05/10.95 (falling VIX is bullish but VIX nearing 10 is becoming contrarian)
Trin range: 0.6 - 0.75 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +87/-58 (bulls currently with the edge)

Still waters belie strong undercurrents
May 4, 2017

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2380.4/2391.4
DTX 907/919
DJIA 20850/21010
Nasdaq 6054/6086
RUT 1380.5/1394.1
VIX 10.4/11.25 (VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 1.0 - 1.3 (bearish)
Average VWAPs: +82/-77 (bull/bear battle; buying in resorts (VAC, HGV, SIX) , auto components)

Fed keeps rates steady; Metals, telecom drop; Livestock (COW) stampedes to new yearly high
May 3, 2017

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2379.8/2391.3
DTX 908.1/914.9
DJIA 20875/20960
Nasdaq 6053/6082
RUT 1385.9/1399.1
VIX 10.4/11.2 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.7 - 0.9 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +76/-73 (neutral; buying continues in airlines; selling in chemicals, media, auto components)

Silver, platinum, Yen break support (SLV, PPLT, FXY); Global funds continue to soar (GREK, EEM, EIRL, IFN, EWY, EWT)
May 2, 2017

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2385.8/2394.2
DTX 907.5/913
DJIA 20905/20965
Nasdaq 6082/6013
RUT 1395/1409
VIX 10.15/10.55 (VIX nearing 10 is contrarian)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.1 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +77/-71 (neutral; buying in airlines, healthcare providers; selling in consumer staples, heavy machinery makers)

Record highs in social media (PNQI, SOCL, FDN) help push Nasdaq to another record high; Gold funds (GLD, IAU) break support; Wheat, grains (WEAT, JJG) rally
May 1, 2017

1:40 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2384.8/2392.2
DTX 906.2/914.8
DJIA 20900/20980
Nasdaq 6062/6098
RUT 1397/1407
VIX 10.15/11.0 (VIX nearing 10 is contrarian)
Trin range: 1.0 - 1.25 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +97/-49 (moderately bullish)

Palladium (PALL) hits a high; Uranium (URA) crumbles; REITs reverse
April 28, 2017

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2381.3/2393.7
DTX 907.9/921.1
DJIA 20920/20990
Nasdaq 6037/6074
RUT 1401.6/1419.2
VIX 10.35/11.15 (rising VIX is bearish)
Trin range: 0.75 - 1.0 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +66/-77 (bull/bear battle; selling pressure in aero & defense, banks, semiconductors)

Internet, semis push Nasdaq to another record high; Oil services drill down (XES, PXJ, OIH); Livestock (COW) stampedes out of consolidation
April 27, 2017

1:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2382.7/2395.3
DTX 912.3/921.7
DJIA 20935/21035
Nasdaq 6032/6052
RUT 1413.5/1423.5
VIX 10.5/11.1 (bullish, but VIX nearing 10 is contrarian)
Trin range: 1.25 - 1.4 (bearish)
Average VWAPs: +98/-46 (bullish)

Russell 2000 powers to record high; Sugar (SGG), uranium (URA) violate major support; Silver, gold miners testing support
April 26, 2017

1:25 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2388/2400 (!)
DTX 918.1/927.9
DJIA 20995/21080
Nasdaq 6022/6041
RUT 1409.8/1425.4
VIX 10.45/10.95 (bullish, but VIX nearing 10 is contrarian)
Trin range: 0.95 - 1.35 (neutral to bearish)
Average VWAPs: +84/-62 (bulls with the edge; sell-off continues in rails; buying in resorts, aero & defense, regional banks)

Major rally in tech stocks push Nasdaq above 6000; Volatility sinks into contrarian territory; Transports sell off
April 25, 2017

1:40 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2381.2/2393.2
DTX 924.8/931.8
DJIA 20910/21040
Nasdaq 6003/6041
RUT 1400.1/1417.7
VIX 10.15/11.15 (falling VIX is bullish but VIX nearing 10 is extremely contrarian)
Trin range: 1.15 - 1.45 (bearish)
Average VWAPs: +69/-57 (buying in internet, medical devices; selling in transports (this is a contrarian sign))

Euro stocks, consumer discretionary soar; Volatility, dollar, bonds plummet on results of French election
April 24, 2017

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2369.2/2375.2
DTX 923.5/928.1
DJIA 20725/20790
Nasdaq 5870.3/5983.7
RUT 1380.5/1400.2
VIX 11/12 (falling VIX is bullish; VIX under 15 means bulls are back in control)
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.15 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +66/-54 (bulls with the edge but trading volume is remarkably light; sell-off in REITs)

Volatility jumps ahead of this weekend's French election
April 21, 2017

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2343.9/2356.1
DTX 907.2/915.8
DJIA 20500/20600
Nasdaq 5891/5919
RUT 1374.8/1384.6
VIX 14/15.35 (rising VIX is bearish; VIX moving back over 15 means bears are stepping back in)
Trin range: 1.05 - 1.35 (bearish)
Average VWAPs: +40/-83 (moderately bearish; selling in healthcare/biotech/pharma; buying in machinery names)

Bulls march back in, pushing Internet (PNQI) & Consumer Discretionary (XLY) to record highs; Ag commodities (JO, NIB, WEAT) continue to weaken
April 20, 2017

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2341/2359.8
DTX 904.4/916.4
DJIA 20405/20635
Nasdaq 5880/5923
RUT 1368.4/1386.4
VIX 14/14.8 (under 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 0.75 - 1.05 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +124/-31 (very bullish; rotation continues out of energy producers/services and into health science equipment/tools, aero & defense, and consumer discretionary)

Cocoa (NIB) melting to record low
April 19, 2017

1:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2340.5/2352.6
DTX 897.3/905.7
DJIA 20445/20545
Nasdaq 5865/5895
RUT 1361.4/1376.7
VIX 13.45/14.6 (under 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 1.05 - 1.55 (bearish to contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +38/-72 (rotation out of energy producers/services and into health science equipment/tools)

Flight to safety as gold gains & treasuries pop above major resistance
April 18, 2017

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2332.6/2348.4
DTX 888.8/899.2
DJIA 20450/20600
Nasdaq 5820/5860
RUT 1349.1/1359.9
VIX 14.4/15.5 (bull/bear dividing line)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.3 (bullish to moderately bearish)
Average VWAPs: +44/-51 (low trading volume; selling in riskier areas--biotech, internet, defense)

REITS, Yen jump; Bulls tip-toe back in as volatility sinks
April 17, 2017

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2332.5/2344.5
DTX 887.7/899.3
DJIA 20485/20615
Nasdaq 5818/5847
RUT 1345.3/1356.7
VIX 14.75/15.75 (falling VIX is bullish; VIX sinking below 15 means bulls are stepping back in)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.05 (moderately bullish)
Average VWAPs: +48/-38 (low trading volume)

***The Stock Market Cook Book is off enjoying the holiday. We will return Monday, April 17th. Hoppy Easter!***
April 13, 2017

Volatility continues to rise as bears step in
April 12, 2017

1:30 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2340.3/2352.7
DTX 900.8/915.5
DJIA 20555/20645
Nasdaq 5826/5868
RUT 1359.1/1376.9
VIX 15.8/16.2 (rising VIX is bearish and VIX above 15 means bears are stepping)
Trin range: 0.65 - 1.2 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +27/-77 (moderately bearish on light pre-holiday trading volume)

Gold (GLD, IAU) breaks out in a flight to safety; Volatility jumps to post-election high
April 11, 2017

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2337.2/2355.2
DTX 903.2/914.8
DJIA 20515/20685
Nasdaq 5819/5881
RUT 1360.5/1374
VIX 14.4/16 (rising VIX is bearish and VIX rising above 15 means bears are stepping)
Trin range: 1.15 - 1.45 (bearish)
Average VWAPs: +68/-33 (bulls with a slight edge)

Andean countries (ARGT, ECH) climb to new highs; Uranium (URA) sparks higher; Volatility rises
April 10, 2017

1:35 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2347.6/2366.4
DTX 908.6/912.8
DJIA 20585/20750
Nasdaq 5858/5908
RUT 1357.8/1376.6
VIX 12.95/14.25 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX below 15 is overall bullish)
Trin range: 0.75 - 1.25 (bullish to slightly bearish)
Average VWAPs: +48/-43 (light trading volume on this holiday shortened week)

Cotton (BAL) tumbles below major support
April 7, 2017

1:35 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2350.7/2362.2
DTX 907.6/914.4
DJIA 20610/20715
Nasdaq 5856/5893
RUT 1358/1368.5
VIX 12.15/13.45 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX below 15 is overall bullish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.15 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +67/-44 (bulls with the edge, for now)

India, Frontier Markets (EPI, PIN, INDY; FM) march to new highs
April 6, 2017

1:35 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2349/2365.2
DTX 907.7/917.7
DJIA 20610/20770
Nasdaq 5856/5890
RUT 1349.3/1362.7
VIX 11.6/12.6 (bullish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.1 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +106/-29 (bullish; stocks rebounding from yesterday's closing drop)

Nasdaq, Consumer Discretionary on track to close at record highs; Base metals jump
April 5, 2017

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2366.6/2379.8
DTX 912.3/923.3
DJIA 20745/20925
Nasdaq 5910/5940
RUT 1364.7/1381.3
VIX 10.85/11.4 (falling VIX is bullish; VIX nearing 10 is becoming contrarian)
Trin range: 0.65 - 1.15 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +59/-50 (neutral)

Sugar (SGG) spirals downward; Coal (KOL) rises to new high; Tesla, Amazon (TSLA, AMZN) continue to soar into the stratosphere
April 4, 2017

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2350.7/2361.3
DTX 905.3/911.3
DJIA 20605/20725
Nasdaq 5879/5903
RUT 1365/1374
VIX 11.9/12.8 (falling VIX is bullish; VIX under 15 is overall bullish)
Trin range: 0.7 - 1.1 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +50/-64 (bearish)

Volatility jumps as political jitters rise; Tesla (TSLA) breaks out to all time high
April 3, 2017

2:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2344.1/2365.9
DTX 902.3/916.7
DJIA 20520/20690
Nasdaq 5866/5929
RUT 1366.3/1388.7
VIX 12.25/13.65 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is still overall bullish)
Trin range: 1.0 - 1.5 (bearish)
Average VWAPs: +38/-89 (bearish)

Lithium (LIT) pops to new yearly high
March 31, 2017

1:40 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2362.6/2371.4
DTX 911.5/915.5
DJIA 20675/20725
Nasdaq 5902/5932
RUT 1380.1/1389.9
VIX 11.7/12.4 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is overall bullish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.05 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +66/-32 (mildly bullish)

Oil (USO, OIL) trying to push above resistance as oil moves over $50/barrel
March 30, 2017

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2358.6/2372.4
DTX 907.2/917.8
DJIA 20645/20765
Nasdaq 5894/5916
RUT 1372/1381.4
VIX 11.1/11.7 (bullish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.1 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +59/-49 (low volume on both sides)

Coal (KOL) on track to close at new yearly high;Amazon, Computer Sciences Corp (AMZN, CSC) hit all-time highs
March 29, 2017

1:45 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2353/2364
DTX 903.3/911.5
DJIA 20625/20675
Nasdaq 5871/5899
RUT 1363.3/1373.3
VIX 11/11.7 (falling VIX is bullish)
Trin range: 0.75 - 1.0 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +62/-40 (bullish to neutral; volume drying up)

Europe, Andean country funds rise to new highs; Priceline, Facebook, Apple (PCLN, FB, AAPL) hit all-time highs
March 28, 2017

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2337.6/2360.4
DTX 892.4/909.6
DJIA 20520/20700
Nasdaq 5829/5877
RUT 1352.5/1367.5
VIX 11.2/12.6 (falling VIX is bullish)
Trin range: 0.75 - 1.0 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +107/-38 (bullish)

Euro (FXE) breaks out as Greenback (UUP) breaks down
March 27, 2017

1:45 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2322.3/2347.7
DTX 879.8/897.4
DJIA 20410/20610
Nasdaq 5770/5858
RUT 1335/1361
VIX 12.65/14.85 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.75 - 1.15 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +117/-43 (bulls buying the dips)

Soybean etf (SOYB) violating major support; Markets waiting on impending healthcare vote
March 24, 2017

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2345.2/2356.2
DTX 891.7/899.3
DJIA 20600/20720
Nasdaq 5828/5859
RUT 1354.5/1363.5
VIX 12.25/13.25 (VIX under 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.3 (bearish)
Average VWAPs: +43/-55 (continuing lackluster action on both sides; market is likely waiting on the healthcare vote)

Palladium (PALL) notches a new yearly high
March 23, 2017

1:30 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2343/2363
DTX 895.7/905.5
DJIA 20620/20780
Nasdaq 5807/5843
RUT 1343.3/1363.7
VIX 12.2/13 (VIX under 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 1.4 - 1.6 (very bearish/contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +47/-50 (lackluster action on both sides; market is likely waiting on the healthcare vote)

Yen (FXY) jumps above major resistance
March 22, 2017

1:45 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2236.5/2351.5
DTX 890.2/897.8
DJIA 20580/20685
Nasdaq 5782/5826
RUT 1332.4/1348.6
VIX 12/13 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is overall bullish--for now)
Trin range: 0.5 - 0.9 (falling Trin is bullish but VIX nearing 0.5 is contrarian (bearish))
Average VWAPs: +63/-49 (fairly lackluster action on both sides)

Transport index slices through major support as financials, tech, biotech lead the sector sell-off
March 21, 2017

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2243/2382
DTX 890.7/913.3
DJIA 20650/20970
Nasdaq 5800/5928
RUT 1350/1390
VIX 10.9/12.9 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is overall bullish--for now)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.2 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +36/-193 (extremely bearish)

Cocoa (NIB) heats up while Sugar (SGG) sours; Asia, Emerging Markets jump/Europe slumps
March 20, 2017

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2371.4/2381.6
DTX 909/916.8
DJIA 20895/20960
Nasdaq 5892/5918
RUT 1382.5/1392.5
VIX 11/11.45 (bullish)
Trin range: 0.75 - 1.1 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +38/-64 (mildly bearish; low trading volume)

Healthcare, biotech take a hit
March 17, 2017

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2377.6/2385
DTX 914.7/919.3
DJIA 20910/20960
Nasdaq 5890/5912
RUT 1380.7/1390.7
VIX 10.7/11.3 (bullish/contrarian)
Trin range: 1.1 - 1.8 (extremely bearish to contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +85/-54 (bulls currently with the edge)

Mexico, Far East, Europe, Emerging Market funds jump; Homebuilders, Internet/Tech notch new yearly highs
March 16, 2017

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2377/2388
DTX 915.5/923.5
DJIA 20880/21000
Nasdaq 5883.5/5911.5
RUT 1382.2/1389.8
VIX 11.2/11.6 (bullish)
Trin range: 1.1 - 1.3 (bearish)
Average VWAPs: +51/-63 (bull/bear seesaw)

Healthcare hits new yearly high as markets wait on the Fed
March 15, 2017

1:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2369/2379
DTX 908.2/922.8
DJIA 20860/20920
Nasdaq 5858/5882
RUT 1363.4/1378.6
VIX 11.55/12.25 (falling VIX is bullish)
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.2 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +67/-30 (bulls with the edge, but trading is fairly quiet ahead of the Fed)

Cocoa (NIB) rebounds off all time low; Volatility rises ahead of the Fed
March 14, 2017

2:30 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2357.5/2368.5
DTX 907.9/923.1
DJIA 20785/20875
Nasdaq 5830/5860
RUT 1351.9/1369.1
VIX 11.75/12.65 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is still bullish overall)
Trin range: 1.05 - 1.6 (bearish to contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +61/-50 (bull/bear seesaw)

India, China funds soar; Treasuries slump--some to 2 year lows
March 13, 2017

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2367.2/2374.2
DTX 921.3/930.7
DJIA 20815/20925
Nasdaq 5861/5874
RUT 1364.7/1373.3
VIX 11.4/12.1 (bullish)
Trin range: 0.95 - 1.2 (neutral to bearish)
Average VWAPs: +58/-52 (not a lot of conviction on either side)

European stocks, currencies rally; US banks, semis falter
March 10, 2017

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2361.7/2376.9
DTX 920.6/927.8
DJIA 20810/20940
Nasdaq 5827/5873
RUT 1355/1369
VIX 11.55/12.1 (falling VIX is bullish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.2 (neutral to bearish)
Average VWAPs: +46/-78 (tilt towards the bears)

Investors push the Sell button on Russia & China
March 9, 2017

Market Notes 1:50pm ET: It appears as if investors are pulling the plug on the long Russia and long China trades. Both the Russia large cap fund (RSX) and the Russia small cap fund (RSXJ) as well as the China large cap fund (FXI) have all broken major support levels. Investors and traders with some appetite for risk can consider going long the triple levered short funds: Russia bear (RUSS) and China bear (YANG).

1:40 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2361/2369
DTX 922.3/930.7
DJIA 20830/20900
Nasdaq 5828/5856
RUT 1365/1371
VIX 11.55/12.15 (bullish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.1 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +44/-89 (bearish)

Oil, bonds, real estate tumble
March 8, 2017

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2365.8/2373.2
DTX 927.7/933.3
DJIA 20870/20950
Nasdaq 5836/5863
RUT 1371/1382
VIX 11.1/11.6 (bullish)
Trin range: 0.65 - 0.85 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +61/-85 (bull/bear seesaw)

Gold (GLD, IAU), telecom (VOX, IYZ) fall below support
March 7, 2017

2:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2367/2375
DTX 933.4/941.6
DJIA 20900/20970
Nasdaq 5828/5860
RUT 1377.4/1383.6
VIX 11.0/11.6 (bullish)
Trin range: 0.7 - 1.15 (neutral to mildly bullish)
Average VWAPs: +47/-58 (tepid action)

Uranium (URA) implodes; Dow slips back under 21000
March 6, 2017

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2368/2380
DTX 935.5/944.7
DJIA 20910/20975
Nasdaq 5828/5853
RUT 1377.3/1392.3
VIX 11.25/11.75 (bullish)
Trin range: 1.0 - 1.4 (bearish)
Average VWAPs: +63/-42 (not much action on either side)

Mexico funds (EWW, MXF) jump the wall of resistance
March 3, 2017

2:30 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2375.4/2383.6
DTX 940/951
DJIA 20950/21040
Nasdaq 5842/5869
RUT 1388/1399
VIX 11.2/11.8 (bullish)
Trin range: 0.55 - 0.9 (falling Trin is bullish but Trin nearing 0.5 is becoming contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +70/-55 (bull/bear seesaw)

Silver (SLV), Loonie (FXC), and Aussie $ (FXA) head south
March 2, 2017

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2381.2/2394.8
DTX 943/957
DJIA 21030/21130
Nasdaq 5868/5897
RUT 1398.8/1413.2
VIX 11.7/12.2 (bullish)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.15 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +60/-75 (selling off: banks; buying into: biotech, healthcare)

Market on fire as Trump talk pushes indices to record highs
March 1, 2017

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2380/2405
DTX 948.1/965.9
DJIA 20955/21175
Nasdaq 5866/5910
RUT 1389.1/1420.9
VIX 11.75/12.35 (falling VIX is bullish)
Trin range: 0.75 - 1.05 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +95/-52 (bullish)

Loonie (FXC) takes a nose dive; Cocoa (NIB) retests all time low
February 28, 2017

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2359/2369.4
DTX 941.3/949.5
DJIA 20780/20850
Nasdaq 5815/5855
RUT 1387.1/1406.9
VIX 12.15/12.95 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.1 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +59/-84 (mildly bearish)

Defense contractors lift off on proposed beefed up defense budget
February 27, 2017

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2361.9/2371.1
DTX 937/946
DJIA 20775/20845
Nasdaq 5827/5854
RUT 1392.2/1409
VIX 11.35/12.1 (bullish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.0 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +76/-43 (moderately bullish; heavy buying in defense contractors and in some biotech names)

Gold pops above resistance while miners, base metals tumble; Tobacco lights up
February 23, 2017

2:25 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2355/2368
DTX 931.5/948.5
DJIA 20750/20850
Nasdaq 5803/5867
RUT 1384.5/1406.5
VIX 11.65/12.45 (bullish)
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.25 (neutral to bearish)
Average VWAPs: +66/-87 (rotation out of miners, machinery and into consumer staples, esp. tobacco (RAI & PM popping to new yearly highs))

Miners slipping under first line of support
February 22, 2017

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2358.3/2365.7
DTX 937.3/949.7
DJIA 20695/20795
Nasdaq 5848/5870
RUT 1399.9/1410.1
VIX 11.4/12.1 (bullish)
Trin range: 0.95 - 1.2 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +59/-66 (bull/bear teeter-totter)

Tech goes to town; Solar flares up; Real estate ramps up
February 21, 2017

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2354.9/2367.1
DTX 946.9/954.1
DJIA 20665/20755
Nasdaq 5837/5868
RUT 1400.7/1410.4
VIX 11.55/11.95 (bullish)
Trin range: 0.7 - 1.0 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +56/-74 (bulls by a hair)

Risk-off is the flavor of the day as markets relatively quiet ahead of 3 day weekend
February 17, 2017

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2339.6/2345.8
DTX 940.8/948
DJIA 20525/20585
Nasdaq 5801/5825
RUT 1392/1399.5
VIX 11.35/12.25 (falling VIX is bullish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.2 (mildly bullish to slightly bearish)
Average VWAPs: +82/-53 (bulls with the edge--for now)

Market takes a step back to digest gains
February 16, 2017

Today's Market at a Glance:
Commodity Break-outs: Molybdenum miner General Moly $GMO jumping 16%, gapping above previous resistance on >2x volume. Zach's recently upgraded the stock from a Sell to a Hold.
Global Fund Break-outs: Egypt $EGPT staging an island reversal off a three month consolidation pattern. Stock +2.3% today on 2x normal volume.

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2336.7/2351.3
DTX 941.2/952.4
DJIA 20550/20640
Nasdaq 5790/5835
RUT 1391.2/1404.8
VIX 11.75/12.8 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is still bullish overall; rising VIX in some cases is good because it allows the market more room to run)
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.15 (mildly bullish to slightly bearish)
Average VWAPs: +57/-69 (bull/bear battle)

Market firing on all cylinders as Transports best major resistance to hit all-time high
February 15, 2017

Today's Market at a Glance:
Commodity Break-outs: $CORN
Sector Break-outs: Healthcare $XLV, $IXJ; Pharma $PJP, $PPH; Consumer Staples $XLP
On the come-back trail?: Solar $TAN, Wind energy $FAN
Global stocks, especially S. America and Emerging Markets are soaring: $GML, $VWO, $EEM, $BRF, $EWZ, $ILF, $EWA

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2334.8/2346.4
DTX 945.1/955.9
DJIA 20495/20610
Nasdaq 5777/5811
RUT 1392/1400
VIX 11.45/11.9 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is still bullish overall; rising VIX in some cases is good because it allows the market more room to run)
Trin range: 0.6 - 0.8 (very bullish)
Average VWAPs: +95/-30 (bullish)

Bulls heart the market as financials, banks, tech, uranium hit new highs
February 14, 2017

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2322.2/2338.6
DTX 940.6/948.6
DJIA 20375/20495
Nasdaq 5749/5782
RUT 1386.4/1396.6
VIX 10.85/11.35 (bullish to contrarian)
Trin range: 0.65 - 0.8 (very bullish)
Average VWAPs: +125/-33 (very bullish; selling in sporting good retailers & internet stocks, buying in biotech/healthcare/pharma)





Transports testing all-time high as the other major averages continue to notch record highs; Banks and financials, steel, miners, grains, emerging markets march to new yearly highs
February 13, 2017

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2321.4/2332.6
DTX 941/951
DJIA 20325/20455
Nasdaq 5752/5771
RUT 1390.4/1399.6
VIX 11.1/11.4 (bullish)
Trin range: 0.75 - 0.9 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +64/-45 (bulls with the edge)

Everyone drinking the bull kool-aid as Dow Industrials, S&P, Nasdaq notch record highs
February 10, 2017

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2311.1/2319.9
DTX 935/941.5
DJIA 20210/20310
Nasdaq 5717/5747
RUT 1380/1390
VIX 10.55/11 (VIX near 10 is very contrarian)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.1 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +83/-37 (bullish)

*** The Stock Market Cook Book is on the road today. See y'all tomorrow! ***
February 9, 2017

China stocks jump
February 8, 2017

Market Notes 2:30pm ET: Despite the Trump's administration's tough trade talk, China stocks jumped today. Several country funds hopped over resistance, gaining between 1.3 - 1.5% on the day: HAO, FXI, GXC. All of these chart patterns are showing a breakout from an inverse head and shoulders pattern--a very bullish sign.

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2285.4/2296
DTX 915.9/925.3
DJIA 20015/20085
Nasdaq 5650/5684
RUT 1349.4/1361.6
VIX 11.15/11.85 (VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.0 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +98/-33 (bullish)

Oil & gas services (OIH, XOP, PXJ) break first lines of support
February 7, 2017

1:20 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2286.6/2299.4
DTX 919.3/927.7
DJIA 20035/20155
Nasdaq 5656/5690
RUT 1355.7/1371.9
VIX 11.05/11.7 (VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.4 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +36/-103 (bearish)

Gold (GLD), precious metals continue to rally
February 6, 2017

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2287.8/2296.2
DTX 920.4/931.2
DJIA 20005/20095
Nasdaq 5648/5668
RUT 1361/1377.3
VIX 10.95/11.85 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.7 - 0.9 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +45/-74 (mildly bearish)

Insurance (KIE), Robotics (ROBO), Semis (SOXX) hit record highs while Cocoa (NIB) slides to record low
February 3, 2017

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2288/2300
DTX 912/926
DJIA 19965/20100
Nasdaq 5648/5668
RUT 1358/1376
VIX 10.75/11.35 (VIX below 12 is entering contrarian zone but VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 1.05 - 1.4 (bearish (!))
Average VWAPs: +68/-48 (neutral with a bullish bias)

Gold & gold miners breaking out; Aussie $ (FXA) jumps
February 2, 2017

2:20 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2271.1/2285.3
DTX 904.7/916.3
DJIA 19830/19920
Nasdaq 5616/5656
RUT 1355/1364
VIX 11.5/12.35 (VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.0 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +63/-75 (neutral)

***We are in the process of upgrading our software. We expect to be fully back online later today. Thank you for your patience.***
February 1, 2017

No intraday support/resistance levels today.

Silver (SLV) rises above resistance; USD (UUP) breaks key support level
January 31, 2017

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2266.3/2276.5
DTX 913.7/927.7
DJIA 19750/19920
Nasdaq 5569/5601
RUT 1345.7/1354.3
VIX 12.2/13.1 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.95 - 1.35 (mildly bearish)
Average VWAPs: +67/-66 (selling in aerospace & defense (PPA, ITA) and financials (XLF); buying in biotech (XBI), pharma (PJP), and med devices (IHI--this is breaking out today))

Volatility jumps as markets reverse
January 30, 2017

2:25 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2266/2296
DTX 921.1/936.9
DJIA 19850/20030
Nasdaq 5570/5636
RUT 1338.5/1369.5
VIX 11.5/12.9 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.3 (neutral to bearish)
Average VWAPs: +104/-46 (buyers starting to step in)

Volatility falls to 2 1/2 year low--could a market reversal be imminent?
January 27, 2017

2:30 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2291/2299
DTX 939/948
DJIA 20070/20115
Nasdaq 5644/5667
RUT 1366/1376
VIX 10.3/10.85 (VIX under 11 is very contrarian)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.1 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +62/-68 (neutral)

Transports testing previous record high
January 26, 2017

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2294/2301
DTX 940.3/950.3
DJIA 20055/20125
Nasdaq 5642/5670
RUT 1373.9/1384.1
VIX 10.65/11.15 (VIX under 11 is very contrarian but VIX under 15 is still bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.15 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +50/-76 (buying in cruise lines (RCL, CUK) and some media names; sell-off in investment banks and some machinery)

Banner day for the bulls as Dow finally breaks 20k; Nasdaq pops over 5600; S&P tests 2300
January 25, 2017

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2288.9/2299.1
DTX 931.8/944.2
DJIA 19995/20105
Nasdaq 5634/5656
RUT 1371.1/1383.7
VIX 10.45/11.05 (VIX falling under 11 is very contrarian but VIX under 15 is still bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.95 - 1.25 (neutral to slightly bearish (!))
Average VWAPs: +75/-59 (bears gaining presence)

Bull charge pushes S&P and Nasdaq to record highs
January 24, 2017

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2267/2282
DTX 915/931
DJIA 19785/19945
Nasdaq 5558/5602
RUT 1348/1375
VIX 11.25/11.75 (VIX falling under 12 is contrarian but VIX under 15 is still bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.7 - 1.1 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +123/-38 (bullish)

Frontier market etf (FM) pops to a new high
January 23, 2017

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2256.2/2271.8
DTX 908/922
DJIA 19735/19835
Nasdaq 5523/5564
RUT 1338.9/1353.1
VIX 11.6/12.6 (VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 1.0 - 1.3 (bearish)
Average VWAPs: +50/-50 (lackluster volume; some selling in aerospace & airlines)

Retailers getting marked down
January 19, 2017

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2262.7/2274.3
DTX 913.5/926.5
DJIA 19720/19820
Nasdaq 5532/5572
RUT 1344.3/1360.7
VIX 12.15/12.85 (VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.55 - 0.7 (bullish to contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +34/-96 (selling pressure in retailers)

Market stuck in neutral pending inauguration
January 18, 2017

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2264/2271
DTX 903.5/916.5
DJIA 19740/19830
Nasdaq 5533/5553
RUT 1350/1357
VIX 12.15/12.85 (rising VIX is bearish but under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.1 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +54/-58 (a whole lotta nuttin' going on)

Grains (JJG, WEAT, CORN, SOYB) gain; Gold (GLD) breaking out; Dollar (UUP) plummets
January 17, 2017

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2265.5/2274.5
DTX 910.1/918.9
DJIA 19800/19885
Nasdaq 5535/5558
RUT 1356.6/1371.1
VIX 11.65/12.3 (VIX under 12 is contrarian)
Trin range: 0.65 - 0.85 (bullish!)
Average VWAPs: +69/-76 (neutral; some selling in semiconductors & in casual dining names)

Nasdaq, internet (FDN), cloud computing (SKYY) all notch all-time highs
January 13, 2017

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2272.1/2278.7
DTX 915.2/922.2
DJIA 19860/19950
Nasdaq 5557/5584
RUT 1361.4/1376.6
VIX 11.05/11.55 (VIX under 12 is contrarian)
Trin range: 1.0 - 1.4 (bearish)
Average VWAPs: +58/-54 (rotation out of banks and financials; otherwise a fairly low volume day)

Gold (GLD, IAU) pops above resistance; Biotech, pharma rally following yesterday's beat-down
January 12, 2017

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2254.3/2271.7
DTX 904.7/917.9
DJIA 19770/19930
Nasdaq 5497/5547
RUT 1345/1373
VIX 11.2/12.6 (VIX under 12 is contrarian)
Trin range: 0.8 - 0.95 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +114/-37 (bullish)

Lithium (LIT) breaking out to a new high/Gold (GLD) testing key resistance/Biotech, pharma (XBI, PJP) tank on Trump remarks
January 11, 2017

2:25 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2260.8/2274.6
DTX 911/921
DJIA 19835/19965
Nasdaq 5521/5564
RUT 1364.5/1375.5
VIX 11.45/12.25 (VIX under 12 is contrarian)
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.2 (neutral to mildly bearish)
Average VWAPs: +72/-88 (bull/bear seesaw)

Coffee (JO), Uranium (URA) jump
January 10, 2017

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2265.3/2282.1
DTX 902.5/916.5
DJIA 19835/19960
Nasdaq 5528/5569
RUT 1357.7/1374.3
VIX 11.3/11.9 (VIX under 12 is contrarian)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.2 (neutral to mildly bearish)
Average VWAPs: +61/-77 (neutral)

Mexico funds (EWW, MXF) tumble to multi-year lows
January 9, 2017

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2269.2/2276.8
DTX 901.9/909.1
DJIA 19895/19945
Nasdaq 5517/5547
RUT 1356.5/1368.5
VIX 11.25/12.1 (VIX under 12 is contrarian)
Trin range: 0.5 - 0.8 (bullish (!))
Average VWAPs: +55/-68 (neutral)

S&P, Nasdaq hit all-time highs--will the Dow follow suit?
January 6, 2017

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2264/2286
DTX 901.4/917.6
DJIA 19835/20025
Nasdaq 5483/5544
RUT 1367/1375
VIX 10.85/11.75 (falling VIX is bullish but VIX under 12 is contrarian)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.15 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +98/-48 (bullish; buying pressure in internet stocks)

Gold pops/Dollar plops
January 5, 2017

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2260.5/2271.5
DTX 901.4/914.6
DJIA 19810/19950
Nasdaq 5464/5496
RUT 1366.3/1387.7
VIX 11.4/12.2 (VIX under 12 is becoming contrarian)
Trin range: 0.7 - 0.85 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +71/-67 (neutral: rotation out of financials and into REITs and internet stocks)

Ag commodities (BAL, JO, NIB, SGG), REITs, Junk Bonds moving higher
January 4, 2017

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2261.6/2274.4
DTX 904.3/910.8
DJIA 19880/19940
Nasdaq 5440/5480
RUT 1376.6/1388.4
VIX 11.65/12.55 (falling VIX is bullish but VIX under 12 is becoming contrarian)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.4 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +91/-43 (bullish)

Platinum jumps/Telecom (IYZ, VOX) rallies to multiyear highs
January 3, 2017

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2238.1/2263.9
DTX 898/917
DJIA 19720/19940
Nasdaq 5377/5453
RUT 1354/1375
VIX 13/14 (VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.65 - 0.9 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +47/-108 (bearish)

*** The 2016 Intraday Market Notes have been archived. ***
December 31, 2016

Recent Articles
Expectations in Asset Class Returns
September 19, 2017 at 12:48 pm

by
Patrick Glenn

We have come to expect that certain asset classes will, in the long run, produce a certain rate of return. When that class fails to produce this return we are disappointed and look for answers and someone or something to blame. But what is the basis for these expectations? This article will attempt to address these issues and provide some answers.

Total Return Profile of Large Cap Stocks
Let’s start with the Large Cap Stock (S&P 500) asset class. We are told that the total return should be about 10%. But where does this number come from? Figure 1 shows the cumulative monthly total return (price + dividends) of the S&P 500 since 1928. Note that the portion of total return due to dividends has historically been in the range from 30% to 60% depending on holding period. Shown on a log axis, where equal percentage changes receive equal weight at all points on the curve, the data is very much visually about a straight line. The actual straight line shown through the data is a best fit exponential regression, Y = a exp (b X), which also displays as a straight line on a log scale and mathematically reports a very high Pearson Correlation Coefficient with this data of 0.99. The annualized rate of return this regression line exhibits, as measured by its slope, is 10.98%.

 Figure 1. Total Return of the S&P 500 since 1928

Based on this you would expect that in the long run one should be able to achieve nearly 11% on an annual total return basis by investing in the S&P 500. But, as you can see, there are extended periods where the return fails to follow this benchmark. For example, from January 2000 through today (August 2017) the average annual total return in the S&P 500 has been only about 5.0%.

Figure 1 can be useful in a number of ways. First, the principle of ‘reversion to the mean’ indicates where the eventual value of this index will be at some time in the future. If the data is currently below the regression line, as it is now, then it is highly likely that it will eventually rise to cross it. If it is above the line, as it was in 2000, then it is equally likely that it will fall to the line and then perhaps cross below it. You can use this line as an aid in determining entry and exit points. If you buy when it is far above the line then you will experience diminished returns as compared to the 11% or better annual return expectation of those who buy when below the regression line and sell when the market is on or above the line.

A possible observation and interpretation from Figure 1 is that unlike the subprime mortgage crisis of 2008 which was a genuine crash the dot-com bubble burst of 2000 was merely an inevitable reversion to the mean.

Total Return Profile of Small Cap Stocks
A very similar result appears for the Small Cap Stock asset class. This asset class mirrors an index such as the the CRSP U.S. Small Cap Index which includes U.S. companies that fall between the bottom 2%-15% by market capitalization. [The Vanguard Small Cap Fund, VSMAX, uses this index as its benchmark.]

Figure 2 below indicates that a long-term annual total return of 14.2% can be expected by investing in a Small Cap stock index fund or similar. Again, this is given by the slope of the regression line and its Pearson Correlation Coefficient is also a robust 0.99.

Figure 2. Total Return of the Small Cap Stock Asset Class

Of course, your actual expected return depends on when you buy and when you sell. You will achieve the expected annual rate of return when you buy and sell directly on the regression line. Better returns can be achieved by buying when the value dips below the line and selling when it rises above it. The above chart indicates that right now is a good time to buy.

Total Return Profile of REITs and International Stocks
Exponential regressions can be performed for the Real- Estate Investment Trust (REIT) and International Stock asset classes. The results are shown in Figures 3 and 4 below. For REITs, the average annual rate of total return is 12.4%. For International Stocks, the value is 10.8%. The correlation coefficients for these above asset classes is 0.99 as well.

Figure 3. Total Return of the REIT Asset Class

Figure 4. Total Return of the International Stock Asset Class

The impact of mean reversion
These figures can be useful in a number of ways. First, the principle of “reversion to the mean“ indicates where the eventual value of an index will be at some time in the future. If the value is currently below its regression line (as it is in all of the above cases), then it is highly likely that it will rise to touch the line or cross it. Conversely, if it is above the regression line, it will eventually fall to the line or below it.

In discussing mean reversion, the real question is not will it ever revert to the mean, but when? It’s impossible to determine exactly that time in the future when it will revert to the mean (ie., the regression line)—it could be a matter of months or even decades. The real strength of this approach is you can improve your returns just by buying when the value is at or below the line, and selling when the value rises above it. On the other hand, if the value is currently well above the line, you may wish to wait until the value comes down, or at least take a smaller position so you don’t lose out on returns entirely.

From the above charts, you can see that if you had bought right before the 1929 market crash and held until now, your total returns in all of the asset classes would have suffered. The table below shows that your actual returns would be off by 1% – 2%, depending on asset class.

Table 1. Comparison of Expected versus Actual Returns

Historical Variations in Expected Returns
Mathematically astute readers will note that the regression lines shown are based on the data up to the present. What was the slope of the regression line in the past when less data was available? Looking at the data for the Large Cap Stocks in Figure 5, you can see that since the ending of the Great Depression in the early 1940′s the expected return as measured by the slope of the regression line climbed steadily until about 1970 when it leveled off. Since then it has been fairly stable around today’s value. A similar return profile holds for all of the four stock asset classes discussed above.

Figure 5. Historical Expected Returns for the Large Stock Asset Class

It’s interesting to look at the International Stock asset class date line (Figure 4). You will see that it appears to have taken a new and flatter path starting in 1987. Only the future will tell if this is a real effect signifying a fundamental change or whether it will revert to its current historical mean value.

Stocks vs Bonds
These stock asset classes seem to behave fairly well according to the regression line premise. However, the same cannot be said of the bond asset classes. They behave much differently. This is particularly true of the Treasury Bill asset class shown in Figure 6 below. As can be readily seen, the exponential regression line approach doesn’t do very well in representing bond performance.

This is to be expected as short-term interest rates are governed by external market forces (e.g., the Federal Reserve Bank) and not strictly by supply and demand. Being directly responsive to interest rate variations, bond performance has no single long-term trend but instead varies slowly at different rates over long periods of time. Low interest rates (and inflation) are seen through the 1960′s slowly transitioning to higher rates in the 1970′s, 1980′s, and 1990′s with lower rates and returns returning in the beginning of this century. For reference, the slope of the regression line for this bond asset class gives an expected annual return of 4.2%.

Figure 6. Total Return of the Treasury Bill Asset Class

Summary
Using regression analysis, the long-term expected returns of free floating asset classes (stocks) can be determined with a high degree of accuracy given a large enough data set. A plot of the regression line over actual return data can indicate to investors when it would be prudent to buy and when it would be prudent to sell in order to maximize portfolio returns.

Note: The graphs and charts presented here were all generated by the Portfolio Preserver (TM), a powerful software tool designed to maximize portfolio returns while minimizing risk.  Find out more at PortfolioPreserver.com.

About the Author:
Patrick Glenn is a former physicist, computer scientist, and business owner. He specializes in mathematical modeling and algorithm development and is the author of the popular CarTest 2000 automobile acceleration simulation and FinanceMaster, a personal finance management program. Today he is an advocate of financial quantitative analysis and is the designer and architect of the Portfolio Preserver software, an innovative approach to portfolio management and risk minimization.

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