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Intraday Market Notes & Observations
Bulls and bears duking it out
April 24, 2014

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1870.25/1887.75
DTX 766.5/776.5
DJIA 16450/16560
Nasdaq 4107.5/4187.5
RUT 1136.5/1155.5
VIX 13.1/14.1 (VIX under 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 0.7 - 1.1 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +71/-71 (bull/bear battle)

Betting on the bettors
April 23, 2014

Today's action in the major averages reflected the rotation out of recent tech (think newer internet companies) and biotech darlings along with other areas that have enjoyed a long run-up such as real estate and consumer discretionary (especially restaurants and casinos) and into the more staid industries such as regional banks, oil and gas producers and suppliers, gold miners, and insurance (see below for more info). Even Treasuries and muni bonds got a lift. It's worth noting that muni bonds have been making a steady comeback since December following last year's late spring sell-off.

Betting on reinsurers
Investors have already filled their dance cards with regular insurance companies, but now they're starting to take notice of of the wallflowers in this group--the reinsurers. Reinsurance companies provide insurance to insurance companies. Essentially, they are a form of risk management for the insurance company. One way reinsurers can make money is via arbitrage, either through economies of scale or tax advantages. It is because of the latter that most reinsurance companies are located off-shore. By purchasing bonds, such as investment grade corporates, they are able to take advantage of their tax-free situation.

Several reinsurers have popped up on my radar screen. They all pay dividends, albeit small ones (yields less than 2%), but it's their charts and P/E ratios that are their most attractive features. They all deserve a look:

Everest Re (RE, $161): P/E 6.3, Yield 1.9%. The stock broke out of a 5 month base today on heavier than normal volume.
Renaissance Re (RNR, $102): P/E 6.8, Yield 1.1%. The stock broke through overhead resistance on 4/8. It broke short-term resistance today.
Montpelier Re (MRH, $31): P/E 8.7, Yield 1.6%. The stock went into the green on St. Pat's day (3/17). It spent a few weeks consolidating until the bulls finally got the upper hand it began powering higher.

From a technician's point of view, all of these look like winners.

Hi-fliers losing altitude
April 23, 2014

1:45 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1874/1881
DTX 771.75/779.25
DJIA 16475/16525
Nasdaq 4123.5/4161.5
RUT 1148/1156
VIX 13.15/13.75 (bullish to bullish contrarian)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.3 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +50/-87 (mildly bearish; rotation out of hi-fliers into golden oldies)

Dow Transports hit record high as bulls cheer
April 22, 2014

2:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1872.5/1887.5
DTX 768.75/777.25
DJIA 16450/16580
Nasdaq 4131.5/4175.5
RUT 1143.25/1162.75
VIX 12.75/13.25 (bullish to bullish contrarian)
Trin range: 0.77 - 1.0 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +104/-52 (bullish, but the bears aren't out of the picture)

Bulls looking to extend last week's rally
April 21, 2014

Intraday Notes (1:40pm ET): The market is looking to extend last week's gains with momentum still rolling in the oil and gas service providers and producers. The Oil Services etf, OIH, is up 1% already on the day. Finally getting a bit of love are the biotechs which have been taking a hit over the past couple of months. Moving to the upside are the biotech etfs IBB, FBT, and BBH.

On the flip side, the gold miners continue to sell-off. Both the major Gold Miner etf, GDX, and the Junior Gold Miner etf, GDXJ, both broke to the downside--not a good sign for the gold bugs going forward. In the internet space, online realty service provider Zillow (Z) rallied over 9% today breaking through overhead resistance on heavier than normal volume, possibly due to a favorable article in this weekend's edition of Barron's.

1:30 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1863/1874
DTX 761.5/768
DJIA 16400/16470
Nasdaq 4082/4126
RUT 1132.25/1145.25
VIX 13/14.1 (VIX under 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 0.7 - 1.0 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +83/-40 (moderately bullish)

Bulls gain traction going into the holiday weekend
April 17, 2014

1:45 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1857/1868
DTX 756/764
DJIA 16370/16450
Nasdaq 4065/4120
RUT 1127/1141
VIX 13.1/14.2 (falling VIX is bullish & VIX under 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 0.7 - 1.3 (falling Trin intraday is short-term bullish)
Average VWAPs: +105/-50 (bullish)

Bulls powering higher
April 16, 2014

1:45 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1846/1860
DTX 746.5/759
DJIA 163265/16445
Nasdaq 4030/4080
RUT 1121/1131
VIX 14.1/15.3 (falling VIX is bullish & VIX under 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.3 (falling Trin intraday is short-term bullish)
Average VWAPs: +67/-56 (bulls trying to gain control but bears still growling)

Bulls trying to regain control
April 15, 2014

Intraday Notes (2:30pm ET): The bulls extended yesterday's closing rally into today's open but their exuberance was quickly quashed when the bears came charging back en masse. With a little more than an hour and a half going into the close, the bulls are trying to regain their footing but today's action may not turn out to be a repeat of yesterday's. The intraday pivot points are indicating that further movement to the downside is possible. However, today's rapid rise in the Trin (Arm's Index) to 1.8 at 1pm ET is a very bearish contrarian sign indicating a market reversal. The market did just that but the question now is how much steam is left in the bull charge. Methinks not enough...

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1814.25/1843.75
DTX 732.5/748.5
DJIA 16025/16275
Nasdaq 3940/4055
RUT 1092.25/1123.75
VIX 15.5/17.5 (VIX over 15 is bearish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.8 (bearish to bearish contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +93/-48 (bulls trying to regain control but bears very much in the picture)

Bears pushing back the bulls' advance
April 14, 2014

2:30 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1818/1834
DTX 737/745
DJIA 16030/16190
Nasdaq 4009/4051
RUT 1115.7/1126.3
VIX 16.05/17.35 (VIX over 15 is bearish)
Trin range: 0.65 - 1.0 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +39/-148 (very bearish)

Major averages testing major support levels
April 11, 2014

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1817/1835
DTX 736.75/745.25
DJIA 16010/16170
Nasdaq 4008/4067
RUT 1115/1129
VIX 15.9/17.1 (rising VIX is bearish & VIX over 15 is bearish)
Trin range: 0.65 - 1.35 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +42/-120 (bearish)

Major averages appear to have put in an intraday low
April 10, 2014

Intraday Notes (2:20pm ET): Yesterday's rally (as noted here) was indeed even more short-lived than I even expected. Heck, the bears didn't even give the bulls an extra day to party as pretty much all sectors moved down from the get-go. However, the slide may be over--at least for today--as evidence by the contrarian nature occurring in the market internals at 1:20pm ET. At that time, the Trin spiked to 1.6, the Tick hit a low of -1150, and the negative VWAPs were inordinately high (in absolute value terms) ranging in the -200 to -300 range. All of these are contrarian indications that the sellers have run out of steam. The turnaround in the major averages is likely due in part to short sellers booking profits, and for this reason it would be foolish for the bulls to think that the bears have gone away.

1:45 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1840/1872.5
DTX 744.6/759.4
DJIA 16220/16455
Nasdaq 4058/4183
RUT 1127/1160
VIX 13.8/15.8 (rising VIX is bearish & VIX over 15 is bearish)
Trin range: 0.6 - 1.6 (rising Trin is bearish but 1.6 is contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +19/-235 (bearish contrarian)

FOMC minutes pushing market higher mid-day
April 9, 2014

Intraday Notes (2:45pm ET): Dovish tones from the minutes of Janet Yellen's first Fed meeting sparked a move in the major averages even above the resistance levels (as calculated from this morning's inflection points). This is just the fuel the bulls were looking for, but the question is whether today's move is the start of another rally or just the pause that refreshes before the bears move back in. Today's dramatic drop in the VIX to under 14 doesn't leave a whole lot of room for the bulls to work with. Yes, the VIX can stay at low levels for a while but today's pop in the precious metals indicates that the risk-off trade (aka, the move back into stocks) may be short lived.

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1852.5/1863.5
DTX 747/757
DJIA 16255/16375
Nasdaq 4121/4163
RUT 1145/1155
VIX 14.05/14.95 (falling VIX is bullish & VIX under 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.15 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +99/-38 (bullish)

Market consolidating ahead of earnings season kickoff
April 8, 2014

2:20 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1837.5/1856.5
DTX 742/749
DJIA 16180/16310
Nasdaq 4066/4134
RUT 1131/1151
VIX 14.8/16.2 (VIX over 15 is bearish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.3 (neutral to bearish)
Average VWAPs: +90/-60 (bulls have the edge--for now)

Investors fleeing high-fliers
April 7, 2014

The market sell-off continues as investors continue to exit recent high-fliers. Small-caps and tech stocks have been especially hard hit as shown by the break down in the Russell 2000 (RUT) and the Nasdaq, both of which have fallen below their 100 day moving averages (dma) as well as major support levels (1150 for the RUT and 4100 for the Nasdaq). The other major averages are faring a bit better but they're still on shaky ground. The 1850 level couldn't contain the S&P 500 (SPX) and it appears that it's on track to test minor support (as well as its 50 dma) at 1840. The Dow Transport Index (DTX) was able to hang onto minor support at 745, but if that doesn't hold (and the technicals are indicating that it won't), it could easily sink to its 50 dma at 740. The VIX popped over 15 putting the bears firmly in the driver's seat. Considering the strength of today's move along with the technical breakdown in the Russell and the Nasdaq, it appears as if the bears will be able to stay in control for at least a little while. A VIX move over the 20 mark, though, could signal that the end of the bears' reign. Here are some key support levels to watch:

SPX: 1840, 1825 (also its 100 dma)
DTX: 740 (50 dma), 700
DJIA: 16200, 16000
Nasdaq: 4000
RUT: 1100 (200 dma)

1:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1840/1864
DTX 741/748
DJIA 16200/16420
Nasdaq 4046/4137
RUT 1127.5/1150.5
VIX 14.6/16.3 (VIX rising over 15 is bearish)
Trin range: 0.6 - 1.4 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +25/-202 (extremely bearish)

Non-farm payrolls fail to excite investors
April 4, 2014

12:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1876/1897.25
DTX 756/771
DJIA 16500/16630
Nasdaq 4125/4267
RUT 1160.75/1187.25
VIX 12.6/14.4 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.7 - 1.1 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +19/-264 (this is the most bearish reading I've seen in a long while)

Bears taking a bite out of new-tech stocks
April 3, 2014

1:40 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1884/1894
DTX 765/771.5
DJIA 16535/16605
Nasdaq 4225/4285
RUT 1179.5/1194
VIX 13/13.55 (VIX under 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.1 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +46/-111 (bears taking a bite out of recent hi-fliers)

Bears pushing back
April 2, 2014

1:25 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1883.75/1892.25
DTX 764.5/772.5
DJIA 16505/16575
Nasdaq 4261/4286
RUT 1187.5/1192.5
VIX 12.85/13.35 (falling VIX is bullish)
Trin range: 0.55 - 0.85 (bullish to bullish contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +48/-96 (bears trying to push the bulls back)

Autos & semis keep on truckin'
April 1, 2014


The S&P 500 and the market leading Dow Transport Index (DTX) were both finally able to break out of a month long consolidation range to hit new all-time highs. The Dow Industrial Index (DJIA) is retesting its all-time high put in a couple of months ago while the tech heavy Nasdaq and small-cap driven Russell 2000 (RUT) both sharply rebounded from a recent sell-off. The question now is how much steam do the bulls have to propel the move higher?

Looking at the VIX may provide us with a clue. The volatility index, a measure of fear and uncertainty, dropped nearly 6% today showing that investors are becoming more confident. Although the VIX closed just above 13--a very low value by historical measures--it still has a ways to go before contrarians become concerned. In the past year or so, the VIX has shown that it can stay at very low levels (in the 12-14 range) for a month or so before rebounding. If history is planning on repeating itself, we may not see the market sell off for at least another month, just in time for the Sell in May and go away scenario to kick in. Let's keep our fingers crossed that today's pop wasn't just an April Fool's joke by the bears wearing bull horns.

Today's hot stocks: Autos & semis deliver the goods
Two industry groups in particular were on fire today--the auto makers and auto part makers and the semiconductors. One would think that with GM's CEO Mary Barra getting grilled by Congress today would cause the auto stocks to crash and burn (like some GM cars), but it seemed to have the opposite effect. In fact many motored to new highs: Tower (TOWR, $29), Autoliv (ALV, $102), Delphi (DLPH, $70), Lear (LEA, $87), Superior (SUP, $21), Magna (MGA, $99), Thor (THO, $64), Tata Motors (TTM, $36), Fiat (FIATY, $12). Most of these have P/Es in the 15 - 25 range with Fiat and Tata being the lowest (11 & 14 respectively), and most pay a dividend with Superior and Autoliv having the highest yields at 3.5% and 2.1%. Technically, all of the above charts are compelling but I especially like Fiat's as it today pistoned out of a three year base--a very bullish indication.

The semiconductor etfs, SOXX and SMH, have been rallying juggernauts and today they both broke out of recent consolidation to hit new highs, gaining roughly 1.5% on the day. Helping these etfs along were some individual names, each popping at least 3% to new highs themselves: Tower Semi (TSEM, $10), Rambus (RMBS, $11), Lattice Semi (LSCC, $8), Micrel (MCRL, $12), Spansion (CODE, $18), Amkor (AMKR, $7), NXP Semi (NXPI, $61), Linear Tech (LLTC, $50), Freescale Semi (FSL, $25). Many of these names have been moving up for a while and still don't show signs of slowing down. Note that the rally in the semis helped the Tech etf (XLK) move past current resistance to yet another new high--just the fuel the market needs to continue moving up.

Major averages trying to break out
April 1, 2014

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1874/1885
DTX 756.75/761.75
DJIA 16457/16572
Nasdaq 4220/4265
RUT 1174.75/1185.25
VIX 13.2/13.6 (falling VIX is bullish)
Trin range: 0.6 - 0.9 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +79/-66 (bulls in control but bears are not going away)

Old is the new New
March 31, 2014

The bulls charged back today amid a lot of end-of-quarter rotation and portfolio window dressing. Possibly fearing that a market correction is in the offing, fund managers have been aggressively dumping current hi-fliers concentrated mostly in the new tech and the biotech areas. High P/E names such as Netflix (NFLX, P/E = 180), Linkedin (LNKD, P/E = 770), and Amazon (AMZN, P/E = 560) have suffered massive outflows in favor of boring industry groups such as food producers, transportation, old media (hey, the New York Times (NYT) broke out to a new high today!), old tech (we'll get to those in a moment), and utilities.

Speaking of utes, the Utilities etf (XLU) popped to a new high today hitting a level not seen since before the 2008 recession. And why not? With reasonable P/Es and decent dividends, they won't face much competition as sources for reliable income until bond rates go up. And from what Janet Yellen said today, she's not anticipating on hiking rates soon. Here's a list of utes hitting new highs today in order of decreasing dividend yield (%): AVA ($30.65, 4%), PEG ($38.14, 3.9%), VVC ($39.39, 3.7%), LNT ($56.81, 3.6%), DTE ($74.29, 3.5%), NWE ($47.43, 3.4%), WEC ($46.55, 3.4%), EIX ($56.61, 2.5%), ITC ($37.35, 1.5%). Technically, Wisconsin Electric (WEC) sports the most compelling chart, but because I'm a Cheesehead I may be a slightly biased in my opinion. The XLU is also a good choice and pays a nice dividend, too (3.6%).

Food and beverage producers also had a good day. Breaking out new highs recently: Diamond Foods (DMND, $34.93), Constellation Brands (STZ, $84.97), Pilgrim's Pride (PPC, $20.92), Tyson Foods (TSN, $44.01), Hormel (HRL, $49.27), Cal-Maine Foods (CALM, $62.78), Pinnacle Foods (PF, $29.86). Of these, Constellation (STZ) is my choice--it sports the best chart and has a reasonable P/E of 8.5 (but it does not pay a dividend as some of the others do).

Old-guard tech names such as Microsoft (MSFT) and Oracle (ORCL) have been on the come-back trail in recent months. Today, Mr. Softee broke out of a fourteen year base on slightly heavier than normal volume. Apparently, investors as well as Wall Street analysts are liking the changing of the guard in senior management along with a refocusing of company efforts on cloud computing and mobile strategies. Oracle, too, blew through recent resistance on 3x volume to hit a level also not seen since 2000. Compared with the tech stocks mentioned above, the P/E's of these two stocks are more down-to-earth--15 for MSFT and 17 for ORCL. I rate both of these stocks as Buys and if I had to pick just one, it would be Microsoft for its more bullish chart and for its higher paying dividend--2.7% compared with 1.2% for Oracle. And if a market correction is in the cards, both of these stocks should be able to weather it well.

Bulls trying to stage a comeback but will the bears let them?
March 31, 2014

1:35 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1859/1876
DTX 746/759
DJIA 16325/16500
Nasdaq 4160/4215
RUT 1155/1178.5
VIX 13.65/14.25 (falling VIX is bullish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.1 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +95/-68 (bulls in control but bears are growling)

Major averages hanging on for dear life
March 28, 2014

1:45 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1850/1867
DTX 741.2/751.8
DJIA 16265/16425
Nasdaq 4156.5/4203.5
RUT 1150.5/1161.5
VIX 13.75/14.75 (rising VIX is bearish but is still on bullish side of the 15 fence)
Trin range: 0.65 - 1.1 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +58/-99 (bears trying to wrest control from the bulls)

Bears charge in
March 26, 2014

1:45 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1858/1876
DTX 744.75/758.75
DJIA 16275/16465
Nasdaq 4197/4263
RUT 1161/1185
VIX 13.45/14.95 (rising VIX is bearish but is still on bullish side of the 15 fence)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.6 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +24/-219 (extremely bearish)

The big yawn

















March 25, 2014

Market Notes: The major averages have been rangebound since the beginning of the month. The 60 minute chart of the S&P 500 above exemplifies this action. While this lack of market action may be putting some to sleep, it doesn't mean that nothing isn't happening. Market internals are showing a rotation out of the recent high flying groups (think biotech and hot stocks such as Tesla that have enjoyed a massive run-up) and into those that have been beaten down. Emerging markets such as the BRICs (which have been in the toilet) are seeing some inflows and appear to be turning around. The real point of this sideways market action will be when the major averages finally break out of it. Whichever way they finally decide to move--be it up or down--a continuation in that direction is indicated. Here are the key support and resistance levels to be aware of for some of the major averages:

Dow Transports (DTX): 745/762
S&P 500 (SPX): 1840/1880
Dow Industrials (DJIA): 16050/16500
Russell 2000 (RUT): 1170/1210

The only major average that has not been trading sideways is the tech-heavy Nasdaq. Instead, this index has been trending down, likely for the reason given above.

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1856/1872
DTX 751.6/759.6
DJIA 16280/16420
Nasdaq 4200/4274
RUT 1171/1191
VIX 13.95/15.15 (VIX still sitting on the bull/bear fence)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.2 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +57/-82 (bull/bear seesaw)

Major averages trying to hold support
March 24, 2014

Intraday Notes (2:30pm ET): The major averages are testing support levels while the VIX is straddling the bull/bear fence at 15. Who's destined to win this sparring match today? Market internals are showing that selling pressure is increasing while buying pressure is decreasing. Chalk one up for the bears. Also, the intraday pivot points on the major averages indicate that there's more room to run to the downside. So, despite the current rise off the intraday lows, we could see this mid-day rally run out of steam as the bears step up the selling going into the close.

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1847/1873
DTX 743/756
DJIA 16200/16380
Nasdaq 4186/4290
RUT 1167/1197
VIX 14.55/16.25 (VIX sitting on the bull/bear fence)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.35 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +59/-92 (bulls and bears duking it out with the bears currently having the upper hand)

Bears staging a comeback
March 21, 2014

1:40 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1871/1884
DTX 751/759
DJIA 16325/16455
Nasdaq 4272/4344
RUT 1198/1208
VIX 13.75/14.75 (VIX under 15 is bullish but let's see if it can close under it)
Trin range: 1.0 - 1.4 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +45/-143 (very bearish)

Semis, banks, brokers achieve lift-off

March 20, 2014

Despite the fact that the major averages were unable to break through recent resistance, several areas were on fire: banks (especially the smaller regionals), financial institutions (brokers in particular), and the semiconductors. The group-wide breakout action was reflected in the industry etfs. The Regional Bank etfs, KRE & IAT, gained the most with a 2% rise to hit new yearly highs. Next in line were the Semiconductor etfs, SMH & SOXX, followed closely by the Financial etf, XLF. (Note that all of these etfs pay a dividend currently yielding in the 1% to 1.5% range.) Most economists feel that it isn't a true rally without leadership in financials which, up until now, has been lacking. Today's breakout should be welcomed by the bulls as good news. (Note: On the flip side, the Transports have been lagging and selling pressure has been heavy--two signs that the road to rally may be filled with potholes.)

I've been saying for a year that the regional banks have looked attractive and many of them still do. Culling through the plethora (26) of break-outs in this group today, the following are my picks based purely on technicals as well as P/E. (I looked at those with P/E's under 15 which is the historical average value of the S&P 500.)

1. Fifth Third Bancorp: FITB: Closing price = $23.36, P/E = 11.4, Dividend Yield = 2.05%
2. PNC Financial: PNC: Closing price = $86.63, P/E = 11.6, Dividend Yield = 2.03%
3. Wells Fargo: WFC: Closing price = $49.03, P/E = 12.4, Dividend Yield = 2.45%
4. Huntington Bancshares: HBAN: Closing price = $10.01, P/E = 13.7, Dividend Yield = 2.00%
5. Regions Financial: RF: Closing price = $11.30, P/E = 14.3, Dividend Yield = 1.06%
6. Wintrust Financial: WTFC: Closing price = $49.62, P/E = 14.9, Dividend Yield = 0.81%

If any of these pique your interest, remember to research them for yourself before jumping on board.

Bulls have the edge but for how long?
March 20, 2014

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1854.5/1876.5
DTX 748/757
DJIA 16160/16380
Nasdaq 4287.5/4337.5
RUT 1190/1204
VIX 14.4/15.6 (VIX under 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 0.5 - 0.75 (falling Trin is bullish but it's getting into the contrarian zone)
Average VWAPs: +82/-60 (bulls have the upper hand but bears still in the mix)

The Fed rocks the boat
March 19, 2014

2:20 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1862/1874
DTX 754.5/761
DJIA 16245/16365
Nasdaq 4313/4336
RUT 1197.5/1205.5
VIX 13.9/16 (falling VIX is bullish and under 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 0.6 - 0.85 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +60/-86 (bull/bear battle)

Will today be the day the Transports close above 760?
March 18, 2014

Intraday Notes & Trade Idea (1:30pm ET): The bulls are stepping in as Russian fears fade. And while we're on the topic of Russia, some of today's biggest gainers are Russian-based exchange traded funds: RSX ($23, +4%), small-cap oriented RSXJ ($30, +4%), and triple-levered Russian bull fund RUSL ($15, +12%). CNBC reported that before the 2008 crash, the Russian stock market actually out-performed the US stock market. During the global mortgage crisis, the Russian market tanked as did virtually every other market. Despite the fact that it did stage a recovery, it wasn't able to hang in there like the US market, likely due to the fact that they had no central bank propping them up. These funds have sold off sharply since 2011 and could be poised for a big comeback, but it's a gamble. Those who can handle risk may wish to start nibbling at these them (or individual stocks). If so, I'd recommend either using options (if available) to minimize investment risk.

1:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1859/1873
DTX 754.3/762.3
DJIA 16245/16395
Nasdaq 4284/4343
RUT 1189.25/1205.25
VIX 13.9/15.5 (falling VIX is bullish but needs to stay under 15 for bulls to stay in control)
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.25 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +70/-44 (mildly bullish)

Bulls step in but bears are fighting back
March 17, 2014

1:25 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1843/1863
DTX 748/758
DJIA 16065/16275
Nasdaq 4269/4301
RUT 1183.75/1196.25
VIX 15.4/16.4 (falling VIX is bullish but it's still over 15 which is bearish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.15 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +54/-57 (bull/bear battle)

Bulls fight back
March 14, 2014

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1840/1854.75
DTX 745.25/754.75
DJIA 16060/164180
Nasdaq 4242/4278
RUT 1173.25/1188.75
VIX 16.1/17.5 (rising VIX is bearish & over 15 is bearish)
Trin range: 0.75 - 1.4 (bearish)
Average VWAPs: +77/-59 (bulls trying to take control but bears still in the picture)

Bears take control over Crimean concerns

March 13, 2014

Market Notes: Despite yesterday's brief attempt to stabilize, the escalation of tension in the Crimea combined with continuing worries over the slowdown in the Chinese economy (hey, stop letting your millionaires escape and fix your pollution problem!) both served to put more pressure on the market. The VIX--a measure of investor fear and uncertainty--jumped over the bull/bear dividing line of 15. Market internals reflected this fear by showing that investors were fleeing the high-flyers for the safety of precious metals, treasuries, and utilities.

Some of today's most interesting action was in the precious metals market which saw a breakout in the gold miners (GDX) and junior gold miners (GDXJ). One gold etf, the IAU, broke out of a base today with its bigger counterpart, the GLD, not far behind. The junior gold miners in particular have been rallying off their December lows. The GDXJ, a basket of junior gold miners, has gained over 50% since then and more upside looks to be in the offing. The next level of resistance for this exchange traded fund is at $50, roughly 11% over today's close. There are options on this stock but they're not nearly as heavily traded as are those on the GDX, the major gold miners. This stock even offers weekly options for those so inclined to trade them. The GDX also broke resistance today and appears to be heading towards its next area of major resistance at $31 which is 12% above today's close.

Spec trades for tomorrow: An escalation of tension in the Crimea could send the VIX a lot higher--and Russian stocks and Russian-based funds plunging. Those with strong stomachs and money to burn could buy levered VIX funds such as TVIX and UVXY and/or the triple levered bear Russian fund (the bear Bear fund?), RUSS, on tomorrow's open with the intention of exiting the trade before the closing bell.

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1845.5/1874.5
DTX 745.5/762.5
DJIA 16115/16405
Nasdaq 4250/4340
RUT 1172/1196
VIX 14.25/16.35 (rising VIX is bearish & over 15 is bearish)
Trin range: 0.7 - 1.4 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +40/-161 (bearish)

Bulls fighting back
March 12, 2014

Midday market watch (2:30pm ET): The intraday support/resistance levels are showing that there's a lot more room for movement to the upside. The disparity between the large positive VWAPs and small negative VWAPs is showing that buyers are stepping in at these levels. The VIX began the day in bear country but has since fallen back into the bulls' camp. If the major averages can manage to close in the green, this may signal the end of the bears' brief reign and the start of yet another leg up in the rally.

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1854/1872
DTX 751/761
DJIA 16260/16385
Nasdaq 4270/4340
RUT 1177.5/1193.5
VIX 14.25/15.65 (falling VIX intraday is bullish but rising over yesterday is bearish)
Trin range: 0.7 - 1.2 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +117/-38 (bullish)

Bears trying to take control
March 11, 2014

The bears have been stealthily gaining strength and their numbers continue to grow. If the VIX can move just a bit over 15--the bull/bear dividing line--the bears will be able to slide into the driver's seat. However, their time behind the wheel may be short-lived as the transports are still rolling along. Sure, the Dow Transport Index is having a tough time closing over 760 but the good news is that it's not selling off as are the other major indices. If a correction does come, it could likely be short and swift.

1:35 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1868/1882
DTX 754.75/762.25
DJIA 16340/16460
Nasdaq 4311/4354
RUT 1190.75/1204.25
VIX 13.85/14.75 (falling VIX is bullish)
Trin range: 0.5 - 1.05 (neutral to contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +34/-106 (bearish)

Are the bulls running out of steam?
March 10, 2014

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1867/1879
DTX 752.5/762.5
DJIA 16305/16455
Nasdaq 4307/4330
RUT 1192.75/1202.25
VIX 14.1/15.3 (rising VIX is bearish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.05 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +57/-64 (bull/bear battle)

Bears trying to take control
March 7, 2014

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1870.5/1884.5
DTX 755.5/763
DJIA 16405/16505
Nasdaq 4317/4371
RUT 1198.5/1210.5
VIX 13.5/14.55 (VIX under 15 is bullish but it is rising)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.2 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +50/-107 (bearish)

Bears applying pressure on the market
March 6, 2014

1:40 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1874/1882.5
DTX 749/755
DJIA 16360/16450
Nasdaq 4344/4372
RUT 1203.75/1208.75
VIX 13.7/14.3 (VIX under 15 is bullish but it is rising off intraday low)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.0 (Trin rising over yesterday is bearish but in neutral territory)
Average VWAPs: +53/-126 (bears trying to rain on the bulls' parade)

The market digesting Fat Tuesday's gains
March 5, 2014

1:30 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1871/1877
DTX 745.5/752.5
DJIA 16345/16405
Nasdaq 4344/4366
RUT 1203.5/1207.5
VIX 13.8/14.35 (VIX under 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 0.45 - 0.85 (Trin rising from contrarian level is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +76/-74 (bulls and bears duking it out)

The market bulks up on Fat Tuesday
March 4, 2014

Midday market watch (2:25pm ET): It sure didn't take long for the market to shrug off the Ukraine/Russia conflict. Shares of anything having to do with Russia rebounded after yesterday's sharp sell-off. The Russia etf RSX gained 3.6% today over yesterday's multi-year low while its small-cap heavy brother, RSXJ, is up 3%. Of course, the triple levered Russia etf, RUSL, has jumped nearly 10% while individual Russian stocks that trade on US exchanges as ADRs, Sber Bank (SBRCY) and Lukoil (LUKOY), are up 4%. If you had been brave enough to jump into any of these issues yesterday you'd be fat and happy today, which is appropriate seeing as how today is Mardi Gras.

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1849.25/1875.75
DTX 731/750
DJIA 16170/16410
Nasdaq 4327/4362
RUT 1187/1221
VIX 13.85/14.55 (falling VIX is bullish)
Trin range: 0.7 - 1.1 (falling Trin over yesterday is bullish (!))
Average VWAPs: +84/-61 (bullish but bears still in the picture)

Is the bad news already priced in?
March 3, 2014

Midday market watch (1:50pm ET): Considering the escalation in tensions between Russia and the Ukraine, I'm amazed that the market isn't a lot lower. In fact, the major averages seem to have already bottomed. Market internals are showing that the bulls have regained control and heigtened VWAPs on the plus side indicate that people are taking advantage of the temporary discounts. However, this ebullient rebound could be just temporary phenomenon especially if the Russian situation takes a turn for the worse. If heightened volatility has you reaching for the Pepto Bismol bottle, waiting it out on the sidelines may be the best place for you right now.

1:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1828.25/1857.75
DTX 723/734
DJIA 16020/16320
Nasdaq 4240/4280
RUT 1165/1175
VIX 15.4/16.9 (rising VIX is bearish)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.25 (falling Trin over Friday is bullish (!))
Average VWAPs: +91/-50 (bullish)

Can the bulls hold on?
February 28, 2014

2:20 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1854/1868
DTX 729.75/739.25
DJIA 16260/16400
Nasdaq 4317.5/4342.5
RUT 1189/1193.5
VIX 13.25/14.25 (VIX under 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 1.2 - 1.75 (rising Trin over yesterday is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +65/-167 (bearish)

Will today be the day the S&P closes above 1850?
February 27, 2014

Yes, today was the day that both the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 were finally able to clear overhead resistance and move to all-time highs. The Nasdaq, too, moved to its highest value since the dot-com bubble. While both the Dow Transports and Dow Industrials are off their recent highs, the good news is that they both rallied nicely. For this new leg up in the rally to continue, we'll need to see the Transports stay above the 700 support level.

Sector action was green across the board with tech (XLK) and materials (XLB) hitting new highs. Both the internet (PNQI) and information technology (VGT) spaces have been going gangbusters and they continue to reach new heights. These two areas (along with biotech) are the waves of the future but getting into them right now after such a long run-up may be not the best idea. If you're bent on doing so, nibbling at them (or even dollar cost averaging into them) may be the prudent way to enter into a long position. May the bull run continue!

2:20 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1841/1857
DTX 725.5/732.5
DJIA 16160/16300
Nasdaq 4285/4328
RUT 1176.5/1185.5
VIX 13.9/14.7 (VIX under 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 0.6 - 0.9 (falling Trin over yesterday is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +87/-51 (bulls still have the edge)

Bears trying to prevent bulls from pushing higher
February 26, 2014

Market Notes (2:45pm ET): The market pattern for five out of the past six trading days has been a rally off the opening bell followed by a steep sell-off from the mid-day high. Although the bulls still have the upper hand, their advancement has been labored. Both the S&P 500 (SPX) and the small-cap Russell 2000 (RUT) have been desperately trying to hit new all-time highs but as soon as they advance into new territory the bears push back. Intraday levels have been showing room to run to the upside but this expected advancement has been met with increasing selling pressure as reflected by the rising Trin and increasing strength in the negative VWAPs (an indication of institutional selling). Whether this trading scenario continues is unclear, but what is clear is that today's decline in the market-leading Dow Transport Index (DTX) is telling us that the bears may be sidling their way into the driver's seat. Tomorrow could be a pivotal day in the market.

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1842.75/1854.25
DTX 723.5/736
DJIA 16160/16260
Nasdaq 4288/4325
RUT 1174/1191
VIX 13.4/14.5 (VIX under 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 1.0 - 1.4 (rising Trin over yesterday is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +98/-61 (bulls with the upper hand but bears still very much in the picture)

Bears trying to tilt the seesaw in their favor
February 25, 2014

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1840/1854
DTX 727/735
DJIA 16150/16270
Nasdaq 4276/4311
RUT 1171/1180
VIX 13.75/14.8 (VIX under 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.1 (rising Trin over yesterday is reflecting an increase in selling pressure)
Average VWAPs: +66/-65 (bull/bear battle)

Bulls pushed the S&P 500 to an all-time high...
February 24, 2014

...but the bears came charging back forcing the index back under 1850. The index has been testing this level since the end of December and so far it hasn't been able to close above it. The market-leading Dow Transport Index (DTX) pierced through overhead resistance at 740 before reversing course midmorning. Its retreat was almost as swift as its ascent. The fact that the DTX lead the other indices in the decline is not a good sign for a bullish continuation tomorrow.

What's been interesting as of late is the fact that the intraday support/resistance levels have been, for the most part, signaling more room to move to the upside (on an intraday basis). Lately, however, the market has been doing just the opposite and I'm wondering why. For one, I could be calculating the pivot points incorrectly but today's pivots were so cut and dried that anyone could have seen them. What I'm left with is a feeling that there really is a battle going on between the bulls and the bears. VWAPs on both the positive (i.e., buying) and the negative (i.e., selling) sides have been elevated. This could be due to a couple of things: 1. sector rotation (that is, the selling of stocks in one sector and the buying of stocks in another), or 2. the reflection of a bifurcation in investor sentiment (aka a bull/bear struggle). My suspicion is that it's a bit of both.

The bears have a good case against further advancement. The market has been overvalued for quite a while. Consider that today the P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is roughly 30% above its historical average (19.58 vs 15). Also consider that inflation is rising (commodities across the board are becoming more expensive, mortgage rates are rising) while unemployment and wages stagnate. Corporations have been boosting their earnings mostly by artificial means--slashing jobs, freezing salaries (except at the very top) and buying back their own stock--while revenues have barely risen. This is a situation that can't last forever and when the manipulation of not only the balance sheets of companies but of the Federal government is no longer feasible, then all heck is going to break loose. These are the main reasons why the bulls haven't been able to shoo the bears away.

But it's not as if the bears should be looking to party hardy. Oh, no. They might have some fun for a while but Mr. Ranger will be putting a stop to any extended picnic. Technically, long-term charts (monthly, quarterly, yearly) of the major averages indicate that the market is currently in a consolidation phase and that the future direction is up. Not just a little bit up, but an up-up-and-away type of up. The time frame we're looking at here is not just years but decades.

So what's the moral of the story? Pretty much the same as it's always been--the bears win the sprint but the bulls win the marathon. Place your bets accordingly.

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1837/1867
DTX 731/745
DJIA 16100/16380
Nasdaq 4272/4333
RUT 1167/1185
VIX 13.75/14.85 (falling VIX is bullish)
Trin range: 0.75 - 0.95 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +85/-56 (bulls have the upper edge but bears are still hanging in there)

Bulls heading out early for the weekend
February 21, 2014

1:40 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1839.25/1846.75 (rangebound for rest of the day)
DTX 725.25/735.75 (slightly more upside possible)
DJIA 16115/16195 (rangebound for rest of the day)
Nasdaq 4272.75/4284.75 (rangebound for rest of the day)
RUT 1165/1168.5 (rangebound for rest of the day)
VIX 14.2/14.8 (VIX rising off intraday low indicates buying pressure drying up)
Trin range: 0.95 - 1.3 (jump in Trin over yesterday is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +66/-65 (bull/bear battle)

Bulls back in charge
February 20, 2014

2:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1824.5/1845.5 (more upside possible)
DTX 713.75/729.25 (more upside possible)
DJIA 16005/16215 (a lot more upside possible)
Nasdaq 4227/4275 (more upside possible)
RUT 1148.5/1163.5 (more upside possible)
VIX 14.4/15.8 (VIX falling back below 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 0.65 - 1.3 (steadily falling Trin from opening high is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +119/-48 (bulls back in charge but bears not going away)

Fed minutes sending market on a rollercoaster ride
February 19, 2014

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1834/1848 (more upside possible)
DTX 719/724 (rangebound for rest of the day)
DJIA 16050/16250 (more upside possible)
Nasdaq 4246/4279 (more upside possible)
RUT 1155/1165 (more upside possible)
VIX 14.15/15.25 (rising VIX is bearish longer term but is falling intraday which is bullish)
Trin range: 0.75 - 1.25 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +66/-66 (bulls and bears duking it out)

Out with the old, in with the new
February 18, 2014

Summary of today's market action
Market action today was bifurcated with the small-cap Russell 2000 (RUT) and the tech-heavy Nasdaq gaining on the day while the Dow Industrials--aka the old guard index--lost ground. The VWAPs were elevated on both the positive and negative sides indicating rotation. The proof of this rotation pushed the Nasdaq to a new post-tech bubble high and pushed the Russell back above 1150 resistance. The big downer on the day was the negative action in the Dow Transports (DTX). Bears were in control of this index right from the opening bell and they quickly pushed it down 1.4%. But selling pressure dried up after about thirty minutes giving the bulls a chance to step in. They managed to keep the index afloat for the rest of the day. Let's hope they can continue to do so as the DTX needs to stay above the 720 level for today's rally to have legs.

Highlights: Java jolts, silver soars, commodities climb, healthcare & biotechs go viral, tech ticks up
A drought in Brazil has been a big factor in the recent rise in coffee prices so it's not clear (at least to me) why the Coffee etf (JO, $30.59) jumped by a whopping 9% today. The fund broke out of a two week consolidation pattern on heavy volume and appears to be heck-bent on testing major resistance at $32. As this represents only a 4% gain over today's closing price, I wouldn't be surprised if it tested this level in the next day or so.

The Silver etf (SLV, $21.13) has been lurching upward for the past two trading sessions. This is good news for precious metal bugs but it's still too early to tell if the rally will continue. The SLV has been unable to break above the $24 level since last April. If it manages to do so, that would signal a shift to an accumulation mentality in precious metals.

Alternative & clean energies are back in the green. Many exchange-traded funds in this space broke out to new highs: Solar (TAN), Clean energies & technologies (QCLN,PBD, PZD). Every day it seems as if there are announcements about new solar and/or wind farms being built. Another exciting clean energy source could be harnessing the power of ocean waves. In fact, Lockheed-Martin (LMT) recently announced that will play a major part of the world's largest wave energy project to be built off the coast of Australia. It will be using technology developed by a micro-cap company called Ocean Power Technologies (OPTT). (If you're thinking of jumping on this bandwagon please note that OPTT's stock price as doubled since the announcement last week.) Anyway, the rally in nearly all commodities has pushed one Commodity fund (DBC) out of the doldrums and through $26 resistance. It looks like clear sailing at least until its next resistance levels at $26.50 and $27.

Healthcare and biotechs continue to push higher. The rally in healthcare and biotech is almost becoming monotonous unless, of course, you're heavily invested in this area. ETFs in this area pushing to new highs today are Big Pharma (PJP), Healthcare (XLV, IXJ), Medical Devices (IHI), and Biotechs (IBB, BBH, FBT).

Technology also rose, especially in the areas of computer gaming and information technology (IT). Continuing to hit new highs are the IT etf (VGT) and the Internet etf (PNQI).

And the sector rotation beat goes on...

Intraday levels sending mixes messages
February 18, 2014

1:30 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1835/1845 (further upside possible)
DTX 720/731 (could go a bit lower)
DJIA 16110/16180 (a lot more upside possible)
Nasdaq 4243.5/4285.5 (a lot more upside possible)
RUT 1151/1164.5 (more upside possible)
VIX 13.6/14.5 (rising VIX is bearish)
Trin range: 1.1 - 1.4 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +84/-60 (bulls barely hanging on)

The bulls get the love on Valentine's Day
February 14, 2014

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1825.5/1840.5 (further upside possible)
DTX 727/733 (could close the day slightly above intraday high)
DJIA 15985/16195 (further upside possible)
Nasdaq 4226/4248 (a bit more upside possible)
RUT 1143.7/1149.3 (a bit more downside possible)
VIX 13.25/14.25 (falling VIX is bullish)
Trin range: 0.7 - 0.95 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +86/-56 (bulls in control but bears are waiting to pounce on weakness)

Bulls charge back
February 13, 2014

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1809.25/1833.75 (further upside possible)
DTX 720.25/730.75 (further upside possible)
DJIA 15865/16085 (further upside possible)
Nasdaq 4170.5/4256.5 (further upside possible)
RUT 1124.5/1149.5 (further downside possible)
VIX 13.65/15.25 (VIX testing 14)
Trin range: 1.05 - 1.35 (rising Trin growing bearish)
Average VWAPs: +154/-37 (very bullish)

Market sending mixed messages
February 12, 2014

Intraday Market Notes (2:10 pm ET): The major averages seem to be dancing to their own internal rhythms today. On the bullish side, we've got the market-leading Dow Transport Index (DTX) in rallying off its earlier low while the action in other averages remains tepid. Today's calculated intraday levels suggest that the Dow Industrials (DJIA) and the small-cap Russell 2000 Index (RUT) could move below their intraday lows before the market closes. The fact that the VIX has been unable to drop below 14 for the past two days indicates that investors haven't become complacent as yet and heightened VWAPs on both the positive and negative sides means that neither sellers nor buyers have moved to the sidelines. Today's close could be quite volatile.

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1816/1827 (rangebound)
DTX 723/727.5 (rangebound)
DJIA 15915/16035 (further downside possible)
Nasdaq 4190/4213 (rangebound)
RUT 1127.5/1137.5 (further downside possible)
VIX 14/14.8 (VIX unable to fall beneath 14)
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.2 (rising Trin over yesterday's value is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +69/-72 (bull/bear battle)

Intraday levels indicate further room to rally
February 11, 2014

1:40 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1800.5/1821.5
DTX 716.5/726
DJIA 15800/16040
Nasdaq 4153/4197
RUT 1118/1134
VIX 14.2/15.3 (VIX jumping over to the bull side of 15)
Trin range: 0.65 - 0.9 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +123/-38 (very bullish)

Gold begins to shine as natural gas cools off
February 10, 2014

Today's Leaders & Losers
The gold miners ($GDX, $GDXJ, $NUGT--triple levered gold miner bull fund) all broke resistance levels today. They've been on a stealth rally since December gaining roughly 20%, 40%, and 75% respectively. I think these have room to run to their next resistance levels: $GDX to $27 (+9.3%), $GDXJ to $45 (+12.5%), and $NUGT to $50 (+19%). One real estate etf, $DRN, broke $43 resistance last Friday and is up another 3% today. It's now testing $45 and break through that could propel it to its previous high of $48.75.

One of today's biggest commodity losers is natural gas. Two nat gas etfs, $UNG and $GAZ, both shed over 4% today. They've enjoyed a meteoric rise in the past two weeks due to the cold spell covering much of the country and it appears that investors are quickly booking profits on the expectation of an increase in temperatures.

Intraday Market Notes (2:40pm ET): The major averages are showing divergence with a downward movement in the Transport index (DTX) and upward movement in the other major averages. There's also a divergence between the VIX, which is moving lower, and the Trin, which is moving higher. This bull/bear struggle is reflected in the elevated VWAPs on both sides indicating possible sector rotation. So where will the market be heading in the next day or so? Well, the downward movement in the DTX--widely considered the leader in market direction--suggests a reversal to the downside. However, a falling VIX could trump that so for right now, it's anyone's guess.

1:35 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1792/1800
DTX 713.5/723.5
DJIA 15735/15805
Nasdaq 4123/4147
RUT 1109/1118
VIX 15.15/15.75 (VIX still on the bear side of 15)
Trin range: 0.75 - 1.05 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +77/-51 (bull/bear tug of war)

February 7, 2014

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1776/1794
DTX 718.5/726.5
DJIA 15625/15795
Nasdaq 4070/4125
RUT 1105/1116
VIX 14.9/16.3 (falling VIX is bullish)
Trin range: 0.65 - 1.05 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +140/-46 (very bullish)

February 6, 2014

Intraday Market Notes (2:25pm ET): Intraday levels are showing there's a lot more room for an upside move--who would've thunk? I'm skeptical whether the major averages will actually close near the calculated highs but if recent market action is any indication, anything is possible. Should this happen, don't think that a bull charge will push the bears back into hibernation--far from it! The high negative VWAPs are indicating that the bears are still hanging out (with perhaps some sector rotation going on, too) so any rally could be very short-lived.

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1753/1777
DTX 707.5/722.5
DJIA 15445/15655
Nasdaq 4022/4076
RUT 1096/1110
VIX 17.4/19.1 (falling VIX is bullish)
Trin range: 0.65 - 1.1 (Trin has been falling from the open which is short-term bullish)
Average VWAPs: +86/-80 (bull/bear battle)

February 5, 2014

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1738/1758
DTX 701/712
DJIA 15340/15510
Nasdaq 3968/4042
RUT 1083/1103
VIX 18.7/20.7 (falling VIX is bullish)
Trin range: 0.7 - 1.3 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +141/-41 (very bullish but bears still grousing around)

February 4, 2014

Intraday Market Notes (2:25pm ET): Yesterday we noted that the internals were flashing Contrarian and today we got the indicated reversal. Intraday pivot points (if I'm reading them correctly) are showing the major averages have a lot more room to run to the upside. Whether we actually get close to those top levels remains to be seen but right now the bears seem to be gaining some traction. Right now the market is up for grabs and today's action near the close could be very telling. A big sword hanging over the investing environment is Friday's jobs report. A bad number could lend credence to the recent economic numbers pointing to a slowing in the economy and if that proves to be the case, we may be in for another sell-off. The best place for conservative long-term investors right now is on the sidelines (or hedged).

1:45 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1744/1765
DTX 703/717
DJIA 15365/15535
Nasdaq 4005/4053
RUT 1094.5/1113.5
VIX 17.85/20.05 (falling VIX is bullish)
Trin range: 0.55 - 0.9 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +101/-47 (bullish but bears hanging in)

February 3, 2014

Intraday Market Notes (2:50pm ET): Quick update. Support/resistance levels are indicating that the major averages have more downside available but the market internals are all so bearish that they've become contrarian. Sure, we still could see more downside going into the close but I wouldn't be surprised if selling pressure hasn't already dried up thereby opening up some space for the bulls to run. In light of this very real rally possibility, I would suggest that the bears stay on their toes and be ready to cover their short positions when the market begins to reverse.

2:40 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1740/1785
DTX 703.5/732.5
DJIA 15360/15710
Nasdaq 3977/4114
RUT 1089/1131
VIX 18.35/21.45 (VIX becoming contrarian)
Trin range: 1.0 - 2.0 (bearish contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +27/-211 (extremely bearish to contrarian)

January 30, 2014

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1777/1800
DTX 720.7/734.7
DJIA 15740/15940
Nasdaq 4095/4146
RUT 1130/1146
VIX 15.7/16.9 (falling VIX is bullish)
Trin range: 0.95 - 1.35 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +100/-58 (bullish but bears still hanging in)

January 29, 2014

Market Notes (4:30pm ET): The major averages are having a tough time holding onto key support levels. Any further drop from today's close would be a sign that the bears have regained control making it very likely we'll see a test of the next support levels which are 1750 for the S&P, 15500 for the Dow Industrials, and 4000 for the Nasdaq.

Well, the cold weather that is currently crippling the South has put pressure on gas reserves causing the Natural Gas etfs, GAZ and UNG, to jump to new highs by 13% and +11% respectively. This is good news for shareholders in those etfs but bad news for those who will be suffering from sticker shock when they open their next gas bills. Any significant increase in the cost of energy results in less money that people have to spend elsewhere meaning that consumer discretionary stocks could suffer as a consequence. Retail stocks in particular have been under recent pressure with Target (TGT) and Big Lots (BIG) both slipping to new yearly lows.

Looking globally, emerging markets continue to suffer. South American and Latin American stocks have been hit particularly hard. Sinking to new lows today were the country funds of Brazil (BRF), Chile (ECH), and Latin America (GML, LATM, ILF).

One bright spot was the after-hours jump in Facebook (FB) shares. The social media company just reported earnings and announced a better than expected increase in revenues, particularly in mobile advertising which was the major area of concern to most analysts. Shares of Facebook are up about $3 (approximately 5%) at the time of this writing.

2:30 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1770/1790
DTX 719/728
DJIA 15710/15930
Nasdaq 4047/4093
RUT 1122/1134
VIX 16.7/18.05
Trin range: 0.75 - 1.1
Average VWAPs: +57/-86 (mildly bearish but bulls are trying to stage a comeback)

January 28, 2014

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1779.5/1798.5
DTX 719.5/735.5
DJIA 15840/15970
Nasdaq 4068/4108
RUT 1128.5/1138.5
VIX 15.8/17.3
Trin range: 0.6 - 0.85
Average VWAPs: +66/-57 (bull/bear battle)

Intraday Notes (11pm ET): The intraday levels are showing more room to run to the upside. Bullish indications: The DTX is holding 720 support and the day-over-day movement in both the Trin and the VIX is down. Bearish indications: Heightened negative VWAPs show selling in weaker issues plus the VIX is still on the bear side of 15.

January 27, 2014

Market Notes: Investors cooling on Chile, getting sweet on cocoa, souring on sugar
The major averages followed through on Friday's sell-off until the bulls stepped in mid-day causing the market to reverse. The rally was short-lived, alas, as the bears charged back going into the close. Although the VIX closed well off its intraday high of 19, it's still in bearish territory and it appears that there's a good chance the market will close the month of January in the red. But, hey, there's still a few days left...

Emerging markets in particular have been under intense selling pressure. Argentina has been a favorite punching bag as of late but it got a rest today as investors decided to gang up on its neighbor, Chile. Sliding to new lows were Chilean banks BCH and BSAC, retailer CNCO, and electric utility company ENI. It'll be interesting to see who gets pummeled next...Bolivia?

One of the few bright spots today was in soft commodities where my favorite softie , the Cocoa etf (NIB), jumped 4% breaking out to a new two year high. On the flip side, the Sugar etf (SGG) slid to a multi-year low. It broke $50 support today and appears that it is going a lot lower. Unless there's a fundamental reason to suggest otherwise, I would not be surprised if it tests its all-time low in the $37 area. A long NIB/short SGG pair trade would have been sweet and still it looks good--yum!

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1774/1797
DTX 713/729
DJIA 15785/15955
Nasdaq 4044/4136
RUT 1115/1147
VIX 17/19
Trin range: 0.75 - 1.4
Average VWAPs: +88/-59 (mildly bullish)

January 24, 2014

Market Notes: Where's the next stop?
All of the major averages breezed through current support levels today. The VIX hopped the bull/bear fence at 15, gaining over 30%--a ginormous move for this index. You can read the financial news for the expert opinions on why today's sell-off was so dramatic (as if there always has to be a why other than the fact that the market was overbought and buying pressure dried up). I'm just here right now to give you the next stop on the market elevator's move to the ground floor. And yes, I do believe we have a couple of more days (at least) before we drop to a level that can be honestly be called oversold. When you see the VIX spike over 20, that would be a good time to consider exiting any short positions, if recent history is any guide.

Next support levels (current levels in parentheses):
SPX (1790): 1775 (also close to its 100dma); 1750
DTX (726--sitting on its 50dma): 720; 710; 700--its 100dma
DJIA (15880--busted through its 50dma this morning): 15700 which is below its 100dma
Nasdaq (4128): 4100 (50dma); 4000 (roughly its 100dma)
RUT (1144): 1140 (50dma); 1120; 1100 (below its 100dma)

Intraday Market Notes (2:20pm ET): Well, the DTX never had a chance to test 760 as the market sold off from the open. Intraday levels are showing that the major averages still have more room to run to the downside which is supported by a lower Trin. (If the Trin was a lot higher we could have a market reversal but it sure doesn't look like that's going to happen today.) The good news is that the bulls are still in the picture as shown by relatively decent average positive VWAPs but a lot of the buying pressure is focused on leveraged bear exchange traded vehicles (etfs and etns) in the Q's, S&P 500, financials and long VIX funds. Back atcha' later...

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1797/1827
DTX 726/756
DJIA 15875/16205
Nasdaq 4132/4198
RUT 1139/1165
VIX 14.9/17.3
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.25 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +49/-151 (very bearish)

January 23, 2014

Market Notes: Was today's drop a one day affair?
Before you bulls get all bent out of shape at today's market drop, you should consider that the market did turn around midday. In fact, the market-leading Dow Transport Index (DTX) actually ended the day in the green--yay! Also, the VIX calmed back down and managed to close below 14--yay again! We might have had a clue that the market was about to reverse when the Trin hit 1.6 right before the turnaround. A Trin reading over 2 used to be the bearish contrarian level but nowadays 1.6--heck, even 1.5-- has been enough to indicate a reversal.

Earlier in the day we noted the bearish VWAPs (see the Intraday support levels below) but also saw that the bulls were still grousing at the gate. Well, they managed to gather strength and charged in breaking up the bears' encampment. The end of day positive average VWAP values were a very bullish 115--but the end of day negative VWAPs were a fairly bearish 60 as well. This means that the bears are ready to pounce on any sign of weakness. Right now the DTX is thisclose to breaking overhead resistance at 760 and if it can't manage to do that tomorrow morning, we may see a sharp sell-off going into the weekend. Don't forget to pack your parachute!

Today's Highlights & Lowlights: Computers and peripherals got a boost today with Logitech (LOGI, $16) reporting blow-out quarterly earnings. It also raised FY14 guidance. The combination was music to investors' ears. Acting like it was Black Friday, they elbowed their way into the stock causing the price to rise a whopping 23% on nearly ten times normal volume. The stock looks like it can easily take a run at $18, then perhaps to $20. Also getting some love was Lenovo (LNVGY, $27.50). The stock popped another 4% over yesterday's big breakout after it was announced that they're taking over IBM's server business. Just so you know, they also took over Big Blue's laptop business a while ago and both companies have been in bed together since. They've been working so closely together that I'm rather surprised that they haven't made the marriage official. Soon, perhaps..?

Well, the past month and a half has been a wild roller-coaster ride for those trading Provectus Pharmaceuticals (PVCT), a micro-cap biotech with an experimental treatment for melanoma. This drug has been hyped as a miracle cure by enthusiasts (aka momentum traders) in stock chat rooms. In just the past two trading days, the stock's price has skyrocketed from $3 to $6. After the stock hit the $6 mark this morning, an article in theStreet.com came out questioning the efficacy of the drug and the fact that the company hasn't been able to get its act together to perform a Stage II drug trial in over two years (you'd think this would have been a giant red flag). Anyway, the story obviously touched a nerve and triggered an explosive sell-off. The stock's price quickly cascaded down to a low of just $1.42 (that's a loss of 76%) in a little over four hours before it managed to claw its way back to end the day at $1.87. Those buying near the open got crushed and my heart goes out to them. (I know how much they are hurting from way too much past experience.) A lot of the traders in this name are probably dining on some tough-tasting crow. The moral of the story? Don't play these momentum names with money you can't afford to lose and if you do happily manage to turn a quick profit, consider yourself one of the lucky ones. That's the end of this story and it's likely the end of Provectus, too.

2:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1819.75/1842.25
DTX 751/759
DJIA 16055/16375
Nasdaq 4190.5/4224.5
RUT 1166.5/1177.5
VIX 13.65/14.75
Trin range: 1.2 - 1.6 (bearish to bearish contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +47/-97 (bearish but bulls still in the picture)

January 22, 2014

2:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1840.75/1847.25
DTX 748.25/755.25
DJIA 16305/16455
Nasdaq 4225.5/4249.5
RUT 1175.25/1181.75
VIX 12.55/13.25
Trin range: 0.95 - 1.3 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +77/-51 (bull/bear battle with bulls having the slight edge for the moment)

January 21, 2014

Market Notes: Mining for profits
The recent rollercoaster ride that has characterized the movement of the stock market reflects the current tug of war between the bulls and the bears. Actually, what the market internals are showing is a rotation out of some of the previous high-flying sectors (think aerospace and defense, retail, and other consumer discretionary industries) and into areas that have been unloved until recently. We've been noting the stealth rally in shipping stocks, particularly the rise of the Shipping etf (SEA) which has gained nearly 50% off its recent November low of $15. Technically, the stock is in rally mode with further gains on the horizon.

Metals and mining stocks are topping the new darlings list. Aluminum manufacturers, for one, have been drawing a lot of investor attention. Today, Alcoa (AA, $12.13) received an analyst upgrade with a price target of $15 (roughly 20% above today's close) citing a looming aluminum shortage for virtually everywhere in the world except China. Besides Alcoa, the other notable gainers in this space today were Century Aluminum (CENX, $12.24) and Alumina (AWC, $4.62). Century Aluminum was also favorably noted in the analyst's review and judging from its chart, it could take a run to its next resistance level at $20--that's 60% above today's close.

The second mining group that is beginning to see a lot of inflow is uranium. Today, shares of the Uranium etf (URA, $16.56) jumped over 4%, breaking out of a four and a half month base on over seven times normal volume. It was helped by the 5% moves in its top three constituents--Cameco (CCJ, $23.08--which broke out to a new yearly high), Denison Mines (DNN, $1.39), and Uranium Participation Corp (URPTF, $5.25). These three stocks together comprise nearly 45% of URA's holdings. The other big mover in this space was Energy Fuels (UUUU, $7.93) which exploded through $7 resistance gaining 17% on the day alone! On a purely technical basis, Cameco and Energy Fuels sport the most bullish charts.

The last group getting a lift is the gold miners, especially the junior miners. Both the Gold Mining etf (GDX, $23.70, +1.6%) and the Junior Gold Miner etf (GDXJ, $37.98, +3.8%) have been rising off recent lows and today they broke near-term resistance levels on heavier than normal volume. Could this be the beginning of the next gold rush?

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1832.5/1849.5
DTX 741.75/751.75
DJIA 16300/16520
Nasdaq 4193/4230
RUT 1168/1177
VIX 12.45/13.45 (rising VIX is bearish)
Trin range: 1.2 - 1.45 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +83/-64 (bull/bear battle with bulls having the edge for the moment)

January 17, 2014

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1840/1846
DTX 740.5/745.5
DJIA 16380/16510
Nasdaq 4201.5/4220.5
RUT 1169.5/1174
VIX 12/12.6 (bullish to bullish contrarian)
Trin range: 1.0 - 1.3 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +62/-76 (bull/bear battle)

Market Notes: 2:15pm ET: The intraday support/resistance levels are indicating rangebound action for the S&P (SPX) and the Russell (RUT) for the rest of the trading session. The other indices, however, show that there's some room to the upside--good news for the bulls. Supporting the bullish case is downward movement in the Trin but the upward movement in the VIX could trump that action. High VWAP levels on both the positive and negative sides generally indicate rotation out of certain stocks and/or sectors and into others. Today, we're seeing money flowing into healthcare, big pharma, along with transportation and logistics and flowing out of investment banks, information technology (IT), and consumer discretionary.

January 16, 2014

1:35 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1840.5/1848
DTX 741.5/749.5
DJIA 16350/16480
Nasdaq 4204/4220
RUT 1168.7/1172.7
VIX 12.25/12.65 (rising VIX over yesterday is bearish but still in very bullish territory)
Trin range: 1.2 - 1.6 (way up over yesterday which is bearish but is falling which is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +86/-58 (bull/bear battle currently with the bulls having the upper hand)

January 15, 2014

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1840.5/1854.5
DTX 745.5/749.5
DJIA 16375/16565
Nasdaq 4196/4222
RUT 1166/1172
VIX 11.8/12.5 (contrarian)
Trin range: 0.75 - 0.95 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +72/-69 (bull/bear battle--likely some rotation going on)

January 14, 2014

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1821.5/1841.5
DTX 736.5/746.5
DJIA 16260/16390
Nasdaq 4126/4189
RUT 1151/1164
VIX 11.7/12.8 (contrarian)
Trin range: 0.7 - 1.0 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +100/-47 (bullish)

January 13, 2014

Market Theme: Consolidation It's no surprise that the market decided to take some time off. There were two signs that a sell-off was in the offing: 1. Whenever the S&P rises 6% to 8% above its 100 day moving average (dma), it sells off. But timing the sell-off is the tricky part...unless you throw in the VIX, leading us to point #2. The VIX has been falling and today it dipped below 12. Virtually every time it's done that in the past few years it was immediately followed by a sell-off and today was no exception.

In fact, the action today was so bearish that further downside is indicated. Market internals were ugly with negative VWAPs (an indication of institutional selling) firmly in the uber-bearish zone (averaging around -180 at the close). As soon as the VIX dipped under 12 just after the open, it began its upward march and ended the day up over 9%, the largest one day gain in a month. The daily candlestick chart of the Dow Transport Index (DTX) is showing a bearish engulfing bar while the S&P and the Dow Industrials both broke near-term support levels. Only the Nasdaq is hanging onto 4100 support--but I won't be surprised if it punctures that tomorrow. So how much of a correction are we in for? The daily chart of the S&P shows that the 50 dma and the 100 dma have acted as support levels in recent years--1800 and 1750 respectively. A move to the 1750 level represents only a 5% drop from the S&P's recent high of 1850. Some pundits are calling for a 10% correction which corresponds to the 1665 level. Just so you know.

Retail getting marked down
One of the retail etfs--the XRT-- fell through $85 support and is closing in on major support at $83. Not helping it were yoga maker Lululemon (LULU) which announced anemic holiday sales and guided both earnings and revenues lower. Also on sale were teen retailer Aeropostale (ARO) which sunk to its lowest level in ten years (and appears to be heading lower--perhaps out of business?) and Bon-Ton Stores (BONT) which lost 14% as it, too, lowered guidance citing weak holiday sales. With the continued rise in online shopping, malls may become extinct sooner rather than later. Now where am I going to go to get my exercise?

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1826.5/1843.5
DTX 741.5/748.5
DJIA 16315/16455
Nasdaq 4141/4180
RUT 1151/1164
VIX 11.8/12.6 (contrarian)
Trin range: 0.7 - 1.1 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +33/-149 (very bearish)

January 10, 2014

Intraday notes (2:25 pm ET): This morning's much worse than expected employment report may be one reason behind today's divergent market action. The intraday levels on the major averages are showing that there's more room to the downside in all but the Transport Index (DTX) which is indicating that it wants to go higher. Since the DTX is a leader in market direction, this is good news for the bulls. The only thing that can put the brakes on this rally is the VIX which is edging close to the dreaded 12 mark--a sign that investors are becoming too complacent. Right now a correction would be healthy as we are straying farther and farther from the mean but a correction would only be a temporary digestion of market gains. I was perusing the longer term charts (monthly, quarterly, and yearly) of the major indices last night and it appears that we are beginning the next stage of a huge--and I mean HUGE--run to the upside. I think that Payden & Riegel is right when they say that global trade is still in its infancy and now is a great time to be in the investment community. And I think that if you can pick up high quality names with global expansion opportunities during market corrections, it would be prudent to do just that.

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1830/1843
DTX 738/747
DJIA 16345/16485
Nasdaq 4142/4173
RUT 1155/1162.5
VIX 12.3/12.9
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.15 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +94/-49 (bullish but bears still grousing around)

January 9, 2014

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1830.75/1843.25
DTX 732.25/739.75
DJIA 16375/16525
Nasdaq 4142.5/4182.5
RUT 1152/1164
VIX 12.85/13.3
Trin range: 1.05 - 1.40 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +65/-88 (moderately bearish but bulls still in the picture--could be some beginning of the year portfolio rebalancing going on)

January 8, 2014

2:20 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1831.5/1841.5
DTX 725.75/731.5
DJIA 16420/16530
Nasdaq 4145/4177
RUT 1152/1160
VIX 12.75/13.25
Trin range: 0.5 - 0.75 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +83/-60 (moderately bullish but bears still hanging around)

January 7, 2014

1:45 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1828.7/1842.3
DTX 724/733
DJIA 16430/16590
Nasdaq 4126.5/4163.5
RUT 1151/1163
VIX 12.4/13.3 (falling VIX is bullish but getting to be contrarian)
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.2 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +84/-53 (moderately bullish but bears lurking in the background)

Intraday notes (2:45 pm ET): Today appears to be a mirror image head-fake of yesterday's mid-day reversal to the upside. The intraday levels show that the major averages have a lot more room to move to the upside but it's going to take a concerted effort by the bulls to raise the averages up to their earlier highs. Market internals are favoring the bulls but the bears are showing that they're not giving up the fight. The VIX is continuing to drop--a bullish sign--but should it fall to its historic contrarian level of 12, a reversal in market direction could be imminent.

Today's market highlights/lowlights (3pm ET): It's hard to believe that faith in the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain) has been restored but it has--that is if today's chart action is any reflection. Today, the Spain etf (EWP), the Greek etf (GREK), and the Ireland etf (EIRL) all broke recent resistance to hit multi-year highs. No way you say? Well, how about this: Italian debt is attracting so many buyers that its current yield is now under 1%. Compare that with yields upward of 15% only several years ago. It appears that the PIIGS have turned into the sacred cows.

In currencies, the Canadian dollar, aka the Loonie (FXC), continues to slide. Today it gapped under its recent support level at $93 and is bent on testing major support at $92. A break through that would likely send it sliding further towards its next level of support at $90. The Loonie is considered a play on the hard commodities and if one considers the slide in all of the metals along with the fall in oil prices as well as the slowdown in China, it's not hard to figure out why the Loonie has been spiraling downward.

That's it for now.

January 6, 2014

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1820.5/1837
DTX 719.5/737.5
DJIA 16375/16535
Nasdaq 4096/4140
RUT 1146/1160
VIX 13.3/14
Trin range: 0.55 - 0.85 (low Trin is bullish but it is rising which is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +58/-64 (bull/bear battle)

Intraday notes (11:20 pm ET): This could be one of those days where the intraday pivot levels aren't where they appear to be (at least to me). The intraday levels suggest that there's a lot more room for movement to the downside but we just got a nice pop off the intraday low. It's not clear what caused it--a computerized buy signal? Anyway, we'll see if this rally can continue into the close...

January 3, 2014

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1826.75/1838.25
DTX 729.75/736.25
DJIA 16435/16515
Nasdaq 4123/4153
RUT 1151.25/1156.25
VIX 13.85/14.25
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.35 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +40/-54 (neutral; light volume)

January 2, 2014

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1828/1847
DTX 726/740
DJIA 15405/16575
Nasdaq 4130/4160
RUT 1146.5/1160.5
VIX 14/14.16 (rising VIX is bearish but still in bullish territory)
Trin range: 0.65 - 1.05 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +45/-97 (bearish but there's some beginning of the year rebalancing going on)

Recent Articles
The Three Seven Aught Mystery
March 16, 2014 at 11:32 pm

I’m writing this article for several reasons. First off, I’m very concerned over the passengers on the plane who don’t deserve their fate. Second, I’m concerned over the raison d’etre of the “hijacking.” Third, I’m a huge mystery buff—and this is a mystery worthy of Sherlock Holmes or Hercule Poirot.

Let’s consider some of the facts:

1. The plane took off just fine.

2. It flew on course for about fifty minutes, or until the captain turned off the seat-belt sign which was over water.

3. After that, the transponders were turned off and there was no further communication from the cockpit.

Question #1: What happened after that?

We can go into a lot of theories but the fact that it wasn’t tracked by radar nor did anyone see it explode or crash leads me to believe that it was commandeered by people already on board. If it was just a piece of cargo on the plane that someone wanted, they could have kept the plane on the ground to search it. No, they wanted someone or someones on board—and they wanted them out of touch of civilization.

Personally, I think the flight was commandeered from the start with the intended landing site the US military base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. There were seven hours of fuel in the plane, more than enough to land there. The people responsible for taking over the cockpit probably positioned themselves in the bathrooms or in the seats of one or two or more of the five passengers who checked in but didn’t get on board (which is a huge anomaly!). For this to take place, the flight crew had to know about it. Some of them may have been involved in it or they may have been led to think that they were playing a part in something else entirely.

Once the plane was in the air, the passengers were tranquilized by airborne, liquid, or other means for either the rest of the flight or, for those who didn’t matter, perhaps for the rest of their lives. I truly hope the latter is not the case.

After that, it wouldn’t be difficult for a US naval airforce pilot to turn the plane west and guide it over water–undetected to radar and satellites–to the US military base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. Diego Garcia can land a plane of this size and hide it in their hangars. They can also hide passengers (either dead or alive) on the island or transport them someplace in submarines or otherwise. (The coral atoll makes a great sub base.) The base is also an Air Force Satellite Control Network Station which might explain a lot of things.

Question #2: Why?

The major concern is what the US would want with 370. Maybe the government needed to interrogate/take out one or more people on it. If it was just a piece of cargo on the plane, they could have accomplished that before the plane took off, as mentioned earlier.

I read on the internet that some Snowden affiliates may have been on board. Or, perhaps there was something else involved of which we know nothing, nor shall we. I just hope it was something worthy of scrapping two hundred thirty nine lives.

Of course, this is all armchair conjecture…

May truth and justice rule.

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Don't worry, we can help you turn losses into profits! With our fun to read, easy to understand kitchen-tested recipes, you'll be whipping up profits in no time. We have strategies for every market environment and every investing level: novice bulls to experienced bears will all find something to satisfy their trading appetites. With every recipe, you'll receive step-by-step trading instructions along with in-depth explanations, professional tips, and illustrative examples to guide you.   Learn More →

Chaikin Analytics for iPad
Now there's a powerful asset allocation & rebalancing tool...
For both the Professional Money Manager and
the Home Investor...
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Finally! You, the Professional Money Manager, now have the ability to:

  • Build an asset class portfolio with effective market timing
  • Customize investment modules to fit your needs
  • Spend less time researching and more time marketing
  • Maximize portfolio returns while minimizing risk
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Introducing the Portfolio Preserver™!

  • Fully functional Portfolio Rebalancing Software
  • Invest across all asset classes or customize to add your own
  • Change allocations only once per month!
  • Leverage your time more effectively
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Now there's a powerful asset allocation & rebalancing tool...
For both the Professional Money Manager and
the Home Investor...
Learn More →

Finally! Don't you wish that you, the Home Investor, could:

  • Simply and effectively rebalance your retirement portfolio just once a month?
  • Stop spending hours watching individual stocks?
  • Maximize returns while minimizing your risk?
  • Say goodbye to your broker and costly management fees?
Learn More →

Introducing the Portfolio Preserver™!

  • Invest across a broad range of asset classes
  • Receive a monthly email report with simple rebalancing instructions
  • Spend only a few minutes a month (if that!) rebalancing and you're done
  • Learn how to invest commission free
...And get all this for less than the price of your morning coffee!
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