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Intraday Market Notes & Observations
Volatility plummets back to complacency
July 30, 2015

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2095/2111
DTX 836/843
DJIA 17640/17790
Nasdaq 5071/5145
RUT 1221/1234
VIX 12/13.4 (falling VIX is bullish but VIX under 12 is contrarian)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.5 (bearish to contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +144/-65 (very bullish)

Market gaining traction on heavy stock rotation
July 29, 2015

1:20 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2094/2108
DTX 827.7/846.3
DJIA 17630/17770
Nasdaq 5080/5108
RUT 1221/1230.6
VIX 12.5/13.6 (falling VIX is bullish and VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.6 - 1.0 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +91/-100 (heavy rotation: out of Healthcare/Pharma/Biotech & into Aerospace/Restaurants/Oil)

Bulls charge back but for how long?
July 28, 2015

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2069/2097
DTX 806.8/829.2
DJIA 17450/17650
Nasdaq 5026/5100
RUT 1205/1228
VIX 13.3/15.6 (falling VIX is bullish and VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.4 - 0.8 (falling Trin is bullish but Trin under 0.5 is contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +178/-35 (very bullish)

VIX jumps back into bear territory
July 27, 2015

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2061.8/2078.2
DTX 802/808
DJIA 17390/17560
Nasdaq 5032/5073
RUT 1212.25/1220.75
VIX 15/16.2 (rising VIX is bearish and VIX over 15 is bearish overall)
Trin range: 0.75 - 1.3 (bearish)
Average VWAPs: +72/-92 (rotation out of healthcare equipment/IT and into Consumer Staples)

Traders stampede towards the exit
July 24, 2015

2:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2079/2106
DTX 806/817
DJIA 17565/17755
Nasdaq 5092.5/5167.5
RUT 1225.5/1243.5
VIX 12.85/14.55 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX below 15 is still bullish)
Trin range: 1.0 - 1.45 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +42/-216 (extremely bearish/contrarian)

Transports drop as rails lose steam
July 23, 2015

Daily Chart of the Dow Transports. Note that the price has been trending down since the end of February, after triple testing its previous high.

1:45 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2101/2117
DTX 813.5/832.5
DJIA 17730/17860
Nasdaq 5149/5197
RUT 1244.5/1262.5
VIX 11.75/12.85 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX below 15 is still bullish)
Trin range: 0.7 - 1.15 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +50/-114 (bearish)

Dow testing 17800 support
July 22, 2015

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2110.5/2118.5
DTX 826.1/832.7
DJIA 17820/17920
Nasdaq 5146/5194
RUT 1248.6/1261.4
VIX 11.9/12.8 (VIX below 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 1.25 - 1.5 (bearish to contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +110/-62 (bullish but bears still in the picture)

Transports finally decide to lead but nobody's following
July 21, 2015

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2111.5/2128.5
DTX 825.8/836.2
DJIA 17865/18095
Nasdaq 5193/5229
RUT 1251.5/1265.5
VIX 12.2/12.85 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX below 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.6 - 0.9 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +65/-83 (bears with the edge)

Internet stocks continue to soar
July 20, 2015

1:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2123.75/2131.75
DTX 825.1/831.9
DJIA 18065/18130
Nasdaq 5201/5229
RUT 1258.1/1268.9
VIX 11.7/12.3 (VIX below 15 is bullish but VIX under 12 is contrarian)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.05 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +87/-57 (stock rotation: out of energy/transports/semis/software & into internet/tech/auto parts retailers/restaurants/construction mat'ls)

Google helps push Nasdaq to record high
July 17, 2015

2:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2119/2129
DTX 823.9/834.9
DJIA 18015/18120
Nasdaq 5183/5202
RUT 1261.7/1273.7
VIX 11.75/12.45 (VIX below 15 is bullish but VIX under 12 is contrarian)
Trin range: 1.0 - 1.25 (neutral to bearish)
Average VWAPs: +76/-59 (stock rotation)

Market churns on sector rotation/VIX entering contrarian zone
July 16, 2015

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2110.5/2124.5
DTX 823/828.5
DJIA 18040/18130
Nasdaq 5128/5166
RUT 1268/1276
VIX 11.8/12.2 (falling VIX is bullish, but VIX under 12 is contrarian)
Trin range: 1.1 - 1.4 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +65/-65 (sector rotation: out of auto parts makers/semis/energy & into Internet giants (GOOG, AMZN, PCLN, NFLX & Big tobacco)

Transports halted at key resistance
July 15, 2015

Market Notes (2:20pm ET): The Dow Transport Index (DTX) has been testing the 830 level (8300 on some charting services) for the third day in the row. A close in the DTX above this level will increase the likelihood that this rally will continue. [Note that 830 was the basis of strong support for the month of June.] Yesterday's darlings, the biotechs, are looking toppy today as reflected by the daily candlestick charts of the biotech etfs BBH, IBB, FBT. In commodities, the precious metals and miners are having an especially tough day. Two gold etfs, GLD and IAU, are retesting previous lows while two platinum funds, PPLT and PTM, are sliding to new yearly lows. Following suit, the gold miner etf (GDX) along with the metals and miner etf (XME) are dropping to yearly lows. Reflecting the slide in the hard metals is the fall in resource-based currencies, notably the Australian dollar (FXA) and the Canadian dollar (FXC). Today, both currencies broke below recent support to hit levels not seen since 2009.

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2106.9/2114.1
DTX 820.5/830.5
DJIA 19025/18095
Nasdaq 5104.7/5125.3
RUT 1265.8/1273.8
VIX 12.8/13.4 (VIX below 15 is overall bullish)
Trin range: 0.7 - 1.0 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +49/-109 (bearish)

Healthcare still hot
July 14, 2015

The market rallied today on the possibility of a Greek bailout (again) but I wouldn't hold my breath that this will actually take place considering the number of hurdles that still need to be cleared. Volatility has dropped so much in the past few days that it's actually getting close to being contrarian again. (A VIX at or below 12 is a sign that investors are becoming too complacent.) While most of the major averages ended the day firmly in the green, the market-leading Dow Transports was the only one to close slightly down. On top of that, it hasn't been able to close above the 830 level (8300 on some charts) which was the previous level of strong support, now resistance. For this rally to continue, I do think we'll need to see renewed leadership from the Transports.

On the stock front, a lot of bullish (and some bearish action) today. Biotechs and healthcare continue to outperform. Notching new yearly highs today were the following sector-related etfs: Biotech (IBB), Pharma (PJP), Healthcare (XLV), and Medical Devices (IHI). The advent of Obama-care has been veddy, veddy good for this sector. For example, the XLV has risen 500% since its 2009 bottom. Kind of makes you sick thinking about it, doesn't it?

Bullish blips (7/14/150: Here are some of the more notable chart action seen today.
1. Navios Maritime (NNA, $4.08) broke out of a seven month consolidation on twice normal volume. Technically, there's no barrier to the stock rising to its next area of resistance at $5. The author of a recent article in Seeking Alpha is bullish on the company citing a price target in the $5.06 - $6.32 range, although he says that there are risks associated with this trade.
2. Beaten down chip-maker Magna Chip (MX, $8.57) opened above $8 major resistance this morning with nearly thrice the normal amount of shares changing hands during the session. The company is being accumulated by activist hedge funds who may be hoping that by spiffing it up a bit will be enough to entice a takeover bid by a larger player. For more info on the company and its fundamentals, check out this article.
3. Shares of medical software provider Simulations Plus (SLP, $6.87) jumped nearly 11% today on ten times volume after the company released record earnings yesterday. The stock has been unable to puncture the $7 level after testing it twice since March of 2013. Should it clear it on decent volume, that would be a signal to begin accumulating a long position. Technically, the stock doesn't face any major barriers until the $8 level and it could easily retest its 2007 all-time high of $8.63. The company pays a dividend (current yield is 2.9%). For a bullish view on the company's prospects, please peruse this article. After doing a bit of my own research, I think that the software products this company provides are really exciting and applicable to many areas of medical research.

Jumps in tech giants Google, Amazon help push market higher
July 14, 2015

1:35 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2098.2/2111.8
DTX 823.9/833.1
DJIA 17955/18075
Nasdaq 5075/5115
RUT 1264.9/1275.1
VIX 12.95/13.95 (falling VIX is bullish; VIX below 15 is overall bullish)
Trin range: 0.7 - 0.95 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +79/-52 (bulls with the edge)

Volatility collapsing on potential Greek deal
July 13, 2015

1:35 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2080/2098
DTX 821.6/833.6
DJIA 17785/18015
Nasdaq 5037/5070
RUT 1258.75/1267.25
VIX 13.65/15.35 (falling VIX is bullish; VIX below 15 is overall bullish)
Trin range: 0.7 - 1.25 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +73/-70 (bull/bear battle; rotation out of healthcare/REITs and into Internet/Consumer discretionary/Energy)

Transports lead the bull charge as Chinese stocks jump again
July 10, 2015

1:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2052.75/2081.25
DTX 806.1/821.9
DJIA 17560/17800
Nasdaq 4966.5/5003.5
RUT 1244.2/1251.8
VIX 16.6/18.2 (falling VIX is bullish but VIX above 15 is overall bearish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.05 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +69/-46 (bulls with the edge)

Sharp rebound in Chinese market props up stocks, commodities/Bonds tank
July 9, 2015

1:30 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2047.75/2074.25
DTX 800.25/812
DJIA 17530/17765
Nasdaq 4928/4982
RUT 1234/1244
VIX 17.2/19.4 (VIX above 15 is bearish)
Trin range: 0.7 - 0.9 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +41/-96 (bearish)

Industrials & Transports testing key support levels
July 8, 2015

1:30 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2047.3/2077.7
DTX 794/817
DJIA 17540/17760
Nasdaq 4905/4965
RUT 1227.4/1241.4
VIX 16.95/19.35 (falling VIX is bullish but VIX above 15 is overall bearish)
Trin range: 1.2 - 1.9 (bearish/bearish contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +48/-79 (mildly bearish)

Transports leading the major averages in a midday about-face
July 7, 2015

Market Notes (4:15pm ET): Big reversal day in the markets! Yesterday's high Trin was an indication that a reversal may be in the works. The major averages ended the day in the green led by the Dow Transports. This should give the bulls something to cheer about. Apart from US equities, there were signs that other beaten down areas may be firming up: gold, silver, platinum, miners (XME), oil and oil producers/drillers, and Chinese stocks all showed bottoming tails in the candlestick charts of their respective exchange-traded vehicles (etfs/etns). Of course, today's rabid reversal may be just a one day phenomenom and prudent investors may wish to consider scaling into long positions. Remember that the VIX is still roaming about in bear country so the dark clouds haven't lifted yet!

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2044/2071
DTX 801.25/813.75
DJIA 17465/17725
Nasdaq 4902/4998
RUT 1226/1248
VIX 17/19.2 (falling VIX is bullish but VIX above 15 is overall bearish)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.7 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +137/-40 (bullish)

China, Greece, Australian dollar weigh on the market
July 6, 2015

Intraday Market Notes (3:30pm ET):Today's bearish market action is no surprise considering the negative developments in Greece over the weekend. However, what came as a surprise (at least to me) was the sharp sell-off in Chinese stocks. China has been cooling off for the past two months following a meteoric rise that began with a strong break-out at the end of March. But as the saying goes, the harder they come, the harder they fall and this seems to be what has happened today. The following Chinese etfs breaking support levels: China Large-cap etf (FXI, -4.7%), China etf (GXC, -5.8%). The biggest loser, though, breaking not one, not two, but three support levels is the China Small-cap etf (HAO, -12%).

Unfortunately, the movement in Chinese stocks isn't just contained within that country. The movement in Australian markets is closely tied to Chinese markets, the reason being that resource-rich Australia is the major beneficiary of Chinese expansion. Today's fall in Chinese stocks extended to Australia as well with both its country etf (EWA) and its currency etf (FXA) both dropping to multi-year lows.

Today's Sector ETF Breakdowns: Utilites (XLI), Banks & Regional Banks (KRE, KBE, IAT), Shipping (SEA), Social Media (SOCL), and Telecom (IYZ, VOX).

Today's Commodity ETF Breakdowns: Oil servicers/producers/explorers (XOP,XES, IEO), Oil (OIL, USO, DBO), Heating Oil (UHN), Timber (CUT), Water (PIO, PHO), and Coffee (JO) which is testing its 2013 low.

While the market looks grim today, there is one ray of light: the Trin. The Trin hasn't been this high (on an intraday basis) since the middle of March. When a technical indicator reaches an extreme level, this means that a reversal is usually in the cards. The Trin reached a high of 1.78 at 2:43pm ET today and guess what? The major averages halted their downward slide and reversed course. It appears as if the day may end on not such a sour note after all.

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2057.4/2078
DTX 803.8/817.2
DJIA 17565/17735
Nasdaq 4954/5021
RUT 1235.6/1253.2
VIX 16.55/18.95 (VIX above 15 is overall bearish)
Trin range: 1.2 - 1.65 (bearish/contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +38/-114 (bearish)

Investors taking chips off the table in front of long holiday weekend
July 2, 2015

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2070/2085
DTX 808.5/814.5
DJIA 17675/17825
Nasdaq 4983/5027
RUT 1242.75/1259.25
VIX 15.4/17.9 (VIX above 15 is overall bearish)
Trin range: 0.6 - 0.9 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +38/-79 (bears currently with the edge)

Buying pressure drying up/Dow Transports leading the market down
July 1, 2015

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2067/2083
DTX 804.5/817.5
DJIA 17640/17800
Nasdaq 4987/5039
RUT 1249.4/1264.6
VIX 16/17.6 (falling VIX is bullish but VIX above 15 is overall bearish)
Trin range: 1.15 - 1.4 (bearish)
Average VWAPs: +46/-125 (bearish)

Markets rebound but volatility remains high/Soft commodities jump
June 30, 2015

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2056.4/2075.6
DTX 808.3/816.7
DJIA 17575/17725
Nasdaq 4968/5007
RUT 1248.8/1256.8
VIX 17.2/19.8 (VIX over 15 is bearish)
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.45 (Trin falling from early morning high is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +134/-34 (bullish)

Volatility jumps on Greek default jitters
June 29, 2015

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2066.4/2098.6
DTX 810.6/824.4
DJIA 17635/17935
Nasdaq 4989/5021
RUT 1256/1274
VIX 15.8/18.2 (rising VIX is bearish; VIX over 15 is overall bearish)
Trin range: 1.0 - 1.4 (bearish)
Average VWAPs: +40/-114 (bearish)

S&P, Russell 2000, Nasdaq falling below support levels
June 26, 2015

1:30 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2093/2109
DTX 821/828
DJIA 17885/18015
Nasdaq 5058/5122
RUT 1271/1287
VIX 13.65/15.35 (rising VIX is bearish; VIX under 15 is still overall bullish)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.3 (bearish)
Average VWAPs: +31/-113 (bearish)

Dow Transports fall below key support
June 25, 2015

1:35 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2107.5/2116
DTX 826.75/833.25
DJIA 17945/18035
Nasdaq 5123/5141
RUT 1282.5/1287.5
VIX 12.9/13.7 (rising VIX is bearish; VIX under 15 is still overall bullish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.2 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +41/-65 (bears currently with the edge)

Bears give the bulls the boot
June 24, 2015

1:45 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2111/2125
DTX 828.5/847
DJIA 17980/18140
Nasdaq 5120/5164
RUT 1283/1295
VIX 12/13.4 (rising VIX is bearish; VIX under 15 is still overall bullish)
Trin range: 0.65 - 1.25 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +24/-130 (bearish)

Bulls running out of steam
June 23, 2015

1:30 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2117/2128
DTX 842.75/852.25
DJIA 18080/18190
Nasdaq 5135/5164
RUT 1289/1294.5
VIX 11.95/12.85 (VIX falling below 12 is contrarian)
Trin range: 0.6 - 0.9 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +53/-68 (bull/bear seesaw)

Bulls gorge on Greek souvlaki
June 22, 2015

Intraday Notes (2:10 pm ET): Hopes of a solution to the Greek debt problem buoyed the early morning market especially etf funds of European countries. The Greek etf (GREK) lead the pack with a whopping 12% gain over Friday's close. While the funds of Italy (EWI), France (EWQ), Spain (EWP), and Germany (EWG) all rose nearly 4%, it was the Ireland etf (EIRL) that made the most bullish move, rising 1% to break out to a new all-time high (since 2010 inception).

On very bullish days like today, one expects the positive VWAPs to be much stronger than the negative VWAPs but today they're about equal. (The Volume Weighted Average Price is a considered a measure of institutional buying (positive) and selling (negative).) One reason for this is sector rotation and that is exactly what is happening today: investors are exchanging their shares of healthcare insurers, internet stocks, and some REITs for those of oil servicers/producers and biotech.

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2112/2130
DTX 842/851
DJIA 18020/18180
Nasdaq 5133/5162
RUT 1284.7/1293.3
VIX 12.4/13.6 (falling VIX is bullish; VIX under 15 is overall bullish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.1 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +66/-58 (sector rotation)

Toss-up: Will the bulls or the bears win the day?
June 19, 2015

Intraday Notes (2:10 pm ET): Today's Trin (Arm's Index) values are so bearish that they're contrarian. What this typically means is that a market reversal could be imminent (to the upside). While no prediction is ever 100% accurate, it still is worth watching. The intraday levels suggest that there's a lot more room to run to the upside, so a late day reversal wouldn't come as a big surprise. For the bulls, it would be a welcome way to end a winning week. (I love a little alliteration.)

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2114/2125
DTX 842.75/850.25
DJIA 18050/18160
Nasdaq 5116/5141
RUT 1281.7/1288.3
VIX 12.95/13.65 (VIX under 15 is overall bullish)
Trin range: 1.3 - 1.6 (bearish contrarian-->market reversal could be imminent (to the upside))
Average VWAPs: +67/-59 (bull/bear battle)

Bulls push Nasdaq & Russell 2000 to all-time highs
June 18, 2015

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2101.5/2130
DTX 836.75/846.25
DJIA 17945/18125
Nasdaq 5082/5153
RUT 1272/1290
VIX 12.45/14.05 (falling VIX is bullish; VIX under 15 is overall bullish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.4 (Trin falling from the open is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +66/-56 (bull/bear seesaw)

On watch: Dow Transports testing support
June 17, 2015

Intraday Notes (3pm ET): The Fed decided not to raise rates at this time. The news reversed today's market sell-off with most of the major averages now pushing into the green. However, the market-leading Dow Transports (DTX) is still trading below today's opening price, and it remains to be seen if it can successfully retest its recent support level at 830 (8300 on some charting services).

2:25 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2089.7/2103.7
DTX 823.8/835.2
DJIA 17825/17975
Nasdaq 5041/5075
RUT 1265.6/1274.4
VIX 14.4/15.6 (a VIX close over 15 is overall bearish)
Trin range: 0.6 - 1.11 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +52/-70 (bull/bear seesaw)

Divergent Transports put a cloud over bulls' picnic
June 16, 2015

Today's market rebound was good news for the bulls but I'm very hesitant to take any position in front of tomorrow's interest rate decision by the Fed. If I had to call what the Fed will do tomorrow based on today's action, I honestly think it's a toss-up between them raising rates or keeping them steady until the September meeting. Here are some reasons for keeping rates as they are: 1. Stocks and bonds both rose. 2. The VIX closed under 15, the bull/bear dividing line. (Note that the VIX is currently being affected by the Greek default issue, too.)

Here are the reasons for a rate hike: 1. The Dow Transport Index (DTX) closed the day in the red, never managing to recover from the early morning sell-off as did the other major averages. This divergence should always be respected as the DTX is considered a leader in market direction. 2. While the VIX itself fell, volatility in the VIX did not (as per the VVIX & VVST). Another divergence. What will happen tomorrow is anyone's guess and I'm expecting volatile market action following the Fed announcement. Should the DTX close much below 830 (8300 on some charting services), a further sell-off is likely. The next areas of support for DTX are 820 (minor support) and 800 (major support).

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2082/2099
DTX 829.5/840.5
DJIA 17775/17945
Nasdaq 5022/5062
RUT 1259/1272
VIX 14.7/15.6 (a VIX close over over 15 is overall bearish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.1 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +84/-41 (moderately bullish)

Volatility jumps on Greece default worries & possible Fed rate hike
June 15, 2015

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2072.5/2091.5
DTX 832.75/841.25
DJIA 17700/17890
Nasdaq 4986/5048
RUT 1247.5/1266.5
VIX 14.6/15.6 (rising VIX is bearish; a VIX close over 15 is overall bearish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.1 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +114/-40 (bullish)

Continuation of yesterday's rally losing steam mid-day
June 11, 2015

1:25 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2105/2115
DTX 836.5/846
DJIA 17995/18110
Nasdaq 5068.5/5101.5
RUT 1264.75/1270.75
VIX 12.7/13.4 (VIX under 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 1.1 - 1.45 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +57/-56 (bull/bear faceoff)

Bulls charge back firing on all cylinders
June 10, 2015

Intraday notes (2:45pm ET): While today's rally may have taken some by surprise, yesterday's dramatic bottoming tails seen in the candlestick charts of many stocks and sector etfs indicated otherwise. Today's rally is truly broad based with all sectors trading in the green. Precious metals and energy are also getting boost. Pretty much the only downers of the day are interest sensitive issues (bonds) and the greenback. In fact, the long dollar etf (UUP) slid beneath near-term resistance at $25. While the $25 level isn't terribly meaningful, the $24.50 one is, and a break below that would be an indication that the dollar could drop much further. Just something to watch...

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2081/2113
DTX 830/841.5
DJIA 17765/18095
Nasdaq 5024/5091
RUT 1254.5/1274.5
VIX 12.8/14.4 (falling VIX is bullish and VIX under 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 0.65 - 95 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +125/-43 (bullish)

Gain in tech, bank stocks slow down bearish momentum
June 9, 2015

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2072/2088
DTX 825.7/835.7
DJIA 17715/17825
Nasdaq 4975/5035
RUT 1242.4/1257.6
VIX 14.35/15.75 (falling VIX is bullish and VIX under 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 0.55 - 85 (bullish to contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +86/-47 (mildly bullish)

Dow Industrial Average falls beneath 17800 support as VIX climbs back over 15
June 8, 2015

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2075/2093
DTX 831.5/850.5
DJIA 17750/17850
Nasdaq 5011/5069
RUT 1251/1261
VIX 14.65/15.65 (rising VIX is bearish and VIX over 15 is bearish)
Trin range: 0.6 - 1.2 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +30/-116 (bearish)

Good jobs report fails to tank the market
June 5, 2015

Market Notes Who would have expected that a good jobs number would bolster stocks? Okay, so the S&P and the Dow Industrials both closed in the red, but the Russell 2000, Nasdaq, and most importantly, the Dow Transports all made solid gains. The VIX, too, managed to drop back below 15 indicating that, at least for today, the bulls are back in business.

The risk-off trade was today's losing bet--for the most part. Precious metals continue to slump and today two Gold etfs (GLD, IAU) both broke support levels. But platinum fared even worse as two Platinum etfs (PTM, PPLT) sank to multi-year lows. In other commodities, investors continue to scuttle coal as the Coal etf (KOL) also hit a multi-year low.

Bonds continue to fall and today saw a slew of muni bond funds either breaking major support levels and/or hitting new yearly lows. REITs (real estate investment trusts) have also been sliding and today two REIT etfs (VNQ, MORT) broke major support levels. It sure appears as if bond traders are gearing up for a rate increase--perhaps coming sooner rather than later. The anticipation of increasing Fed fund rates could also be a big reason why the Consumer Staples etf (XLY) broke major support at $48. Another down day could send this stock back to test $45 support.

On the flip side, the US Dollar--traditionally a member of the risk-off group--jumped as the Bull Dollar etf, UUP, rose 0.9% (that's a big gain for a currency etf).

Turning to sectors and industry groups, banks continue to rally. Three Bank etfs (KRE, KBE, IAT) all closed at new yearly highs. Banks, especially the regional banks, are expected to do well in a rising interest rate environment. The good thing about this group is that they're still not overvalued (for the most part). Today, twenty seven bank stocks hit new highs. Most of these sport P/E's in the 12-20 range. Out of this group, JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Hilltop Holdings (HTH), and Banc California (BANC) have the lowest P/E's (11-12) and are well worth a look.

2:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2085.5/2103.5
DTX 841/855
DJIA 17820/17940
Nasdaq 5025.5/5090.5
RUT 1242.75/1259.25
VIX 13/15.65 (falling VIX is bullish; VIX under 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 0.55 - 0.95 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +126/-33 (bullish)

The bears take charge
June 4, 2015

Market Notes (2:50pm ET):The early morning rebound from the opening bell sell-off bode well for the bulls but the bears were to have none of it. They've waited long enough to set up camp and they weren't going to let the bulls stay a minute longer, no siree Bob. Both the S&P and the Dow Industrials not only violated near-term support levels, but also their 50 day moving averages (dma). (The Dow Industrials is also toying with its 100 day moving average.) On top of that, the VIX climbed above 15, the bull/bear dividing line. Could it be that the Sell in May scenario is being pushed into a Sell in June one?

The take-over by the bears doesn't come as too much of a shock to market technicians. The first indication of instability was the mid-March 50 dma/100 dma bearish crossover in the market-leading Dow Transports (DTX). The second indication was the 50 dma/200 dma death cross that happened on 5/26. While yesterday's rally in the Transports looked like a victory for the bulls, today's action shows that it was likely an empty one.

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2091/2113
DTX 842/852
DJIA 17880/18080
Nasdaq 5050.5/5101
RUT 1248.2/1261.2
VIX 14/15.5 (rising VIX is bearish and VIX over 15 is bearish)
Trin range: 0.7 - 1.25 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +29/-135 (bearish)

Dow Transports push higher on stock rotation
June 3, 2015

Market Notes (2:30pm ET): Today's strong move by the Transports is buoying the other major averages, most notably the small-cap Russell 2000 (RUT) which is moving back above 1260 resistance. The heightened VWAPs on both the positive and negative sides is a sign of stock rotation out of energy and energy related issues, REITs, and materials, and into consumer discretionary, internet, and software. A rise in bonds today pushed bond funds lower forcing the Long Term Treasury bond etf (TLT) to fall under major support at $118.

On the flip side, the news bode well for banks and investment services. Two bank etfs, the Regional Bank etf (KRE) and the Bank etf (KBE) both gapped up to hit new yearly highs. Also, the Broker/Dealer etf (IAI) bested $44 resistance to reach a seven year high. These groups should continue to outperform in a rising interest rate environment. In currencies, the greenback continues to slide against other currencies. The Bull Dollar etf (UUP) is testing $25 minor support; a fall below that would likely send it down to test major support at $24.50.

1:45 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2108/2122
DTX 840/855.5
DJIA 18010/18170
Nasdaq 5085/5115
RUT 1252.75/1267.25
VIX 13.4/14.25 (VIX under 15 is overall bullish)
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.05 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +69/-71 (stock rotation)

Euro pops/Greenback drops
June 2, 2015

2:20 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2099/2119
DTX 831.8/847.2
DJIA 17925/18115
Nasdaq 5047/5103
RUT 1243.3/1258.1
VIX 13.55/15.05 (VIX under 15 is overall bullish)
Trin range: 0.65 - 0.85 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +73/-46 (mildly bullish)

Transports finally providing support for the bulls
June 1, 2015

1:30 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2102.5/2119.5
DTX 828.25/835.75
DJIA 17980/18120
Nasdaq 5045.5/5101.5
RUT 1238.7/1255.3
VIX 13.55/14.85 (VIX under 15 is overall bullish)
Trin range: 0.7 - 1.1 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +111/-33 (very bullish)

Transports continue to decelerate
May 29, 2015

1:40 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2104.8/2120.8
DTX 826.5/836
DJIA 17965/18135
Nasdaq 5057.5/5102.5
RUT 1241.1/1253.9
VIX 13.15/14.45 (falling VIX is bullish; VIX under 15 is overall bullish)
Trin range: 0.7 - 1.1 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +94/-47 (bullish)

Bulls struggling to hang on
May 28, 2015

Quick Notes (2:25pm ET): Trying to determine today's intraday pivots on the major averages was tougher than usual and all showed that there is still a lot of room left to move to the downside. While I hope for the sake of the bulls that I'm wrong, I would be wary of loading up on the long side.

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2107.25/2124.75
DTX 827.5/843.5
DJIA 18035/18155
Nasdaq 5073.35/5106.65
RUT 1245.3/1252.7
VIX 13.4/14.3 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is overall bullish)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.3 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +55/-54 (bull/bear tug of war)

Bulls push back
May 27, 2015

1:45 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2105/2124
DTX 834.75/844.75
DJIA 18045/18225
Nasdaq 5039/5091
RUT 1237.6/1250.4
VIX 12.8/14.4 (falling VIX is bullish; VIX closing under 15 is overall bullish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.1 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +85/-37 (mildly bullish)

Transports breaking below key support; VIX trying to push into bear territory
May 26, 2015

1:30 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2099.75/2125.25
DTX 833.5/849.5
DJIA 17990/18230
Nasdaq 5013.4/5081.4
RUT 1227.9/1248.1
VIX 13.35/15.05 (rising VIX is bearish; VIX closing over 15 is overall bearish)
Trin range: 0.75 - 1.05 (rising Trin in bearish)
Average VWAPs: +49/-73 (mildly bearish)

Is Sell in May turning into Sell in June ?
May 22, 2015

Market Notes (2:40pm ET): Judging from today's anemic trading volume, it appears as if traders have already packed up their campers and are heading out of town. Today's intraday support/resistance levels indicate rangebound to slightly negative movement for the rest of the trading session. While the Sell in May scenario didn't materialize (yet), we could see a shift into a Sell in June one. Here are two good reasons why:

1. The VIX has dipped below 12 and everytime it's done that the market has reversed. Sure, the VIX can stay low for a while but it eventually springs back and typically very sharply.
2. The Dow Transports have been trending down, contrary to the upward movement in the other major averages. Today, this index is testing a key support level and a close beneath that could be another sign that we're at a market top.

Now would be an excellent time to book profits and hedge your bets.

In currency news, the Long US Dollar etf (UUP) broke above recent resistance while the Long Euro etf (FXE), Long British Pound etf (FXB), Long Canadian Dollar etf (FXC), and Long Australian Dollar etf (FXA) all fell below their recent support levels. There's still time to book that overseas vacation!

Transports testing key support level
May 22, 2015

2:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2125.5/2132
DTX 843.75/855.25
DJIA 18217/18287
Nasdaq 5084/5104
RUT 1248.5/1259.5
VIX 11.7/12.4 (VIX below 12 is contrarian)
Trin range: 0.6 - 0.95 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +55/-56 (stalemate)

VIX volatility hits contrarian levels--market poised for a sell-off?
May 21, 2015

1:45 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2123/2135
DTX 849/859
DJIA 18250/18330
Nasdaq 5062.5/5097.5
RUT 1255.5/1261
VIX 12.2/13.1 (VIX below 15 is bullish but is entering contrarian levels)
Trin range: 0.7 - 0.95 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +52/-77 (bullish)

Fed fans the bulls' campfire
May 20, 2015

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2122.5/2130.5
DTX 846.6/867.4
DJIA 18265/18335
Nasdaq 5020/5110
RUT 1252.4/1258.2
VIX 12.6/13.3 (VIX below 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 0.7 - 1.10 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +92/-42 (bullish)

Greenback, financials pop/oil drops
May 19, 2015

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2126/2132
DTX 867/877
DJIA 18260/18360
Nasdaq 5068/5087
RUT 1251.8/1258.8
VIX 12.6/13.2 (VIX below 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 0.75 - 1.10 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +75/-53 (bull/bear seesaw)

S&P 500 legging up to a record high
May 18, 2015

1:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2120/2129
DTX 865.5/872.5
DJIA 18245/18310
Nasdaq 5038/5078
RUT 1241/1256
VIX 12.6/13.2 (VIX below 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 0.80 - 1.20 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +86/-31 (bullish)

The bulls charge back
May 14, 2015

Market notes (2pm ET): Today's stock movement is out of energy and material names and into healthcare, biotech, and internet giants (FB, GOOG, BIDU, AMZN, NFLX, PCLN). What is really interesting is that today's Trin (Arms Index) is so bearish that it's contrarian which is an indication that the market wants to push higher. We could possibly end the week with the Dow Industrials and the S&P 500 at all time highs. Stay tuned!

1:45 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2100.5/2125.5
DTX 852.7/863.3
DJIA 18060/18300
Nasdaq 5000/5050
RUT 1232.5/1246.5
VIX 12.65/13.3 (falling VIX is bullish and VIX below 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 1.1 - 1.7 (bearish/contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +108/-44 (bullish)

Funds continue to flow into regional banks
May 13, 2015

The market is in a state of flux with many investors taking time out to figure out how a rising interest rate environment is going to affect the economy. One thing they do know, however, is that rising interest rates are good for banks, especially the smaller regional banks that depend on loans to make money. That's the reason they've been so popular recently, almost exclusively so. Today, investors pushed many regional bank stocks to new highs. Breaking out of recent consolidation were the following issues: WTFC, ISBC, OZRK, FRC, and PNFP. These and others pushed one regional bank etf, IAT, to a new high along with a larger regional/money center bank etf, KBE. (Holdings in KBE tend towards the larger banks compared to the holdings of its smaller regional bank brother, KRE, although there is some overlap between them.)

The greenback continues to slide and today the Bull Dollar etf, UUP, slipped below support. The move was countered by a breakout in the Aussie Dollar etf, FXA. If you're planning on a European vacation this summer, you may wish to embark on it sooner rather than later.

Market bifurcation: Transports moving against other major averages
May 12, 2015

1:45 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2085.5/2111.5
DTX 859.7/874.3
DJIA 17925/18175
Nasdaq 4932/5008
RUT 1218.4/1239.6
VIX 13.35/15.15 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX below 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 0.55 - 1.05 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +100/-40 (bullish)

Market churns on sector rotation
May 11, 2015

Quick Notes: The market is rather quiet today and intraday levels show that market action for the rest of the day is rangebound or slightly to the upside. Beneath the surface, the heightened VWAPs on both the positive and negative sides are showing rotation out of high-flying internet stocks, oil & gas producers, and REITs and into biotech and healthcare. While market volatility is low overall, short-term volatility is up which could be an early sign of pending market erosion.

In sector news, banks are finding some love today. One bank etf (KBE) and a regional bank etf (KRE) are pushing out of consolidation and are close to retesting their post-recession highs. Reflecting this bullish movement are two commercial banks which broke out to new yearly highs today: Cathay General (CATY, $29.3) and Wilshire Bank (WIBC, $10.8). If you're tempted to buy into either of these, I would wait until the KBE and the KRE top resistance. The only negative thing about today's action in CATY and WIBC is the noticeable lack of volume which is why I'd like to see some follow-through before taking a position.

Bond funds took a big hit today due to the rise in interest rates. Long term Treasury bond funds sliced through major support levels. Among them were the following: TLT, TLO TLH, TMF. If you're in any of them, I would strong suggest either hedging the position or better yet, cashing out. (Note that rising interest rates are good for banks, especially the regional ones.)

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2109.5/2117.75
DTX 875.4/881.6
DJIA 18125/18205
Nasdaq 4995.5/5019.5
RUT 1234.5/1245.5
VIX 13/13.5 (VIX under 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.2 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +63/-69 (heightened VWAPs indicate rotation)

Goldilocks jobs report (not too hot, not too cold) ignites the market
May 8, 2015

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2092/2118
DTX 872.75/884.75
DJIA 17935/18205
Nasdaq 4986/5014
RUT 1230.6/1239.4
VIX 12.85/13.65 (falling VIX is bullish and VIX under 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 0.5 - 1.4 (falling Trin is bullish but Trin in the 0.5 neighborhood is contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +74/-95 (heightened VWAPs indicate rotation)

Bulls provide relief ahead of Friday's crucial jobs report
May 7, 2015

12:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2075/2094
DTX 861.8/876.2
DJIA 17795/17975
Nasdaq 4914.5/4958.5
RUT 1215.5/1228.5
VIX 14.5/16 (VIX over 15 is bearish)
Trin range: 1.0 - 1.25 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +128/-39 (bullish)

Volatility jumps above bull/bear dividing line of 15
May 6, 2015

1:40 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2066.5/2098.5
DTX 856.75/865.25
DJIA 17680/18020
Nasdaq 4980/4965
RUT 1212/1223
VIX 13.9/16 (rising VIX is bearish and VIX over 15 is bearish)
Trin range: 0.6 - 1.0 (bullish (!) to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +60/-100 (bearish)

Bears push Russell 2000 under support
May 5, 2015

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2090.75/2115.25
DTX 862.2/874.6
DJIA 17935/18085
Nasdaq 4936.75/5008.25
RUT 1210/1234
VIX 13/14.4 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is overall bullish)
Trin range: 0.55 - 0.85 (contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +34/-139 (bearish)

A jump in factory orders boosts market
May 4, 2015

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2110/2123
DTX 872.5/852.5
DJIA 18025/18155
Nasdaq 5012/5044
RUT 1229.4/1240.6
VIX 12.6/13.4 (VIX under 15 is overall bullish)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.15 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +65/-77 (bull/bear seesaw)

Is it Sell in May time again?
April 30, 2015

No one knows if today's sell-off was the beginning of the Sell in May adage, but what I do know is this: volatility is turning up and some of the major averages are breaking down. Bulls need the VIX to stay under 15 but the fact that it pushed above that level mid-day is a sign that the party may be coming to an end. The market-leading Dow Transports (DTX) is sitting on major support at 860 (8600 on other scales). This level has been tested multiple times since October and a decisive break below that would indeed be bad news for the bulls. Today did see violations in near-term support for the Nasdaq (broke 5000--next support @ 4900) and for the Russell 2000 (broke 1240, now testing 1220).

There were notable breakdowns in sector etfs as well: Homebuilders (XHB), REITS (ICF, VNQ, MORT), Retail (XRT), IPOs (IPO), Pharma (PJP), Biotech (BBH, FBT, XBI), and Food & Beverage (PBJ). The heightened negative VWAPs (volume weighted average price) in individual names from these sectors reflected the rotation out of these areas...

...and into oil stocks, most notably oil services (drillers). Two Oil Service etfs (XES, OIH) both broke out of five month bases. It appears that the oil and gas sector is starting its journey on the comeback trail and now would be a good time to begin building a long position.

The other bright spot was the move in the Greek etf (GREK). The stock popped out of a double base, rising nearly 7% on more than twice normal volume. Perhaps all of the bad news has been baked into the stock?

Stock rotation continuing: Out of healthcare/biotech/defense & into oil servicers
April 30, 2015

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2090.5/2105.5
DTX 857.2/868.8
DJIA 17895/18035
Nasdaq 4954/5016
RUT 1226.25/1242.75
VIX 12.75/14.75 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is overall bullish)
Trin range: 0.55 - 0.75 (contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +83/-142 (bearish; heightened VWAPs indicate stock rotation)

Major rotation out of healthcare, consumer discretionary into oil
April 29, 2015

1:35 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2097/2113
DTX 863.6/880.4
DJIA 17935/18095
Nasdaq 4994/5054
RUT 1244/1256
VIX 12.85/14.75 (VIX under 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 0.6 - 0.8 (bullish (!))
Average VWAPs: +87/-113 (heightened VWAPs indicate stock rotation)

Investors digging the gold miners
April 28, 2015

Today's Market Highlights: Gold miners on the move

Apart from the flurry surrounding today's early leak of Twitter's earnings numbers, one of the few standouts was the breakout in the gold mining etfs. Both the major miners (I love saying that) and the junior miners were under buying pressure. The etfs of both these groups have been in an uptrending wedge pattern for the past couple of months (higher lows indicating rising price support). Today, they all popped above upper wedge resistance on heavier than normal volume:

Gold Miner etfs: GDX, SGDM, NUGT (3x bull)
Junior Gold Miner etfs: GDXJ, SGDJ (this fund debutted a month ago), JNUG (3x bull)

In individual names, Newcrest Mining (NCMGY, $12) and industry bigwig Freeport-McMoran (FCX, $22.68) both broke out of recent consolidation on heavier than normal volume. It's worth noting that a move in the miners typically precedes a move in the metal. One reason why this is so is that it costs money to mine metals (duh) and a vote of confidence in the miners means that investors are thinking that the price of gold will be going up. (Perhaps they're thinking that the Fed will be raising interest rates sooner rather than later.)

It's also worth noting that the etfs of resource-rich countries--specifically Canada (EWC) and Australia (EWA)--have been rising in conjunction with the gold miners. These etfs have been languishing since last summer and so have their currencies. But this situation appears to be reversing as today the Australian dollar etn (FXA, $80.22) popped above major resistance to complete a bullish island reversal. (The Canadian dollar (FXC, $82.66) pierced major resistance on 4/16 and has been moving up since.) Both moves in the currencies were mirrored by their country etfs.

While the tide may be turning for precious metals and resource-rich countries, I would wait for some follow-through to today's movement especially in lieu of tomorrow's FOMC announcement which could potentially put the kibosh on a flight to safety. However, should the stocks continue to rise in the face of the Fed, I would definitely begin building a long position.

Stocks, gold rally/Dollar dives
April 28, 2015

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2095/2120
DTX 872.75/885.25
DJIA 17920/18140
Nasdaq 5006/5090
RUT 1242.5/1264.5
VIX 12.35/14.25 (VIX under 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 1.0 - 1.35 (neutral to bearish)
Average VWAPs: +98/-50 (bull/bear battle indicating stock rotation)

Tech-heavy indexes rising into the cloud(s)
April 26, 2015

All day Friday CNBC was consumed with the question whether or not the S&P 500 would close at a new high. Breaths were bated right up to the close and after the final trades were tallied it was indeed confirmed that the index reached a new high. Adding to the festive atmosphere were great earnings announcements from tech giants Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN), the stocks of which jumped 10% and 14% respectively. It appears as if Wall Street had been undervaluing the strength of their cloud services. The strength of both moves pushed the Cloud Computing etf (SKYY, $30.72) to a new high. (Yes, there is an etf for this, too.) With both companies being major components of the Nasdaq indices, it was no surprise that the Nasdaq Composite hit a new post-2000 high while the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) broke out of a two month consolidation pattern to gap above 4500 resistance.

But despite the rosiness in the tech-heavy indices, the other major averages didn't fare quite so well. In fact, the Dow Transports (DTX) and the small-cap Russell 2000 (RUT) both closed in the red. Couple this divergence with the fact that VIX volatility has now entered the contrarian zone and you have a recipe for a market reversal. While good news on this week's earnings front could continue to bolster the market, many sectors are over-bought and have been so for some time. (FYI: Decent valuations can still be found among the regional banks, although this area, too, is rapidly becoming pricey.) While I'm not advocating rushing out and buying index puts with abandon, it may be prudent to tighten up your stops.

Some of this week's notable earnings:
1. In the metals: Barrick Gold (ABX) and Yamana Gold (AUY) report early this week. On Thursday, uranium producer Cameco (CCJ) reports. The thing to look for in all of these is how they guide for the upcoming year.
2. In tech:
Monday: CYOU, OSTK
Tuesday: SIRI, BSX
Wednesday: BIDU, YELP
Thursday: FEYE, LNKD
3. On the European financial front: Banco Santander (SAN) reports Tuesday while Deutsche Bank (DB) reports Wednesday. Reading their outlooks may shed some light on the health of the European economy.
4. Other: Time Warner Cable (TWC) reports Thursday. It will be interesting to see what their plans are now that the FCC and the DOJ put the kibosh on their proposed merger with Comcast (CMCSA).

*Blue Plate Specials* subscribers can continue reading our current compelling stocks for this week in the Subscriber Notes section.

S&P hitting another new high but will it close there?
April 24, 2015

2:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2113/2121
DTX 885/891
DJIA 18010/18130
Nasdaq 5081/5104
RUT 1267/1273
VIX 12.15/12.65 (VIX under 15 is bullish; VIX near 12 reflects complacency)
Trin range: 0.7 - 1.0 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +77/-82 (bull/bear battle)

S&P pushing to an all-time high while internals turn contrarian
April 23, 2015

1:20 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2103/2119
DTX 879.5/896
DJIA 17965/18155
Nasdaq 5019/5063
RUT 1262.4/1271.6
VIX 12/13 (VIX under 15 is bullish; VIX near 12 reflects complacency)
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.25 (rising Trin is bearish (!))
Average VWAPs: +129/-30 (very bullish)

Falling volatility feeding the bulls
April 22, 2015

2:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2091/2114
DTX 878.6/883
DJIA 17910/18090
Nasdaq 4993/5043
RUT 1255/1266
VIX 12.2/13.8 (VIX under 15 is bullish; VIX under 12 reflects complacency)
Trin range: 0.5 - 1.0 bullish)
Average VWAPs: +96/-44 (bullish)

Rotation out of oil putting the brakes on yesterday's rally
April 21, 2015

2:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2092.4/2109.6
DTX 874/883
DJIA 17910/18110
Nasdaq 5006.7/5028.25
RUT 1263.5/1270
VIX 12.65/13.65 (VIX under 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 1.0 - 1.4 (neutral to bearish)
Average VWAPs: +74/-82 (bull/bear battle indicating stock rotation)

Bulls charge back with Transports leading the way
April 20, 2015

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2084/2105
DTX 866/884
DJIA 17840/18130
Nasdaq 4953/4994
RUT 1255.75/1269.25
VIX 12.55/13.7 (falling VIX is bullish & VIX under 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.25 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +68/-57 (bull/bear tug of war)

Choppy waters pushing investors into safe harbors
April 17, 2015

Intraday Notes (1:30pm ET): The market is finally taking a breather today. Not only is every sector trading in the red, so is nearly everything else with the sole exceptions of long-term treasuries (TLO, TLT, TLH), investment grade corporate bonds (LQD), and some muni bonds (MHN, NMA). One would have suspected that gold and perhaps oil could also be in on the bullish action but upside momentum in both has been strangely muted. It could be that investors just aren't interested in holding anything over the weekend pending further news on the earnings and international fronts.

1:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2077.5/2102.5
DTX 863/869.7
DJIA 17810/18100
Nasdaq 4927/4975
RUT 1247/1264
VIX 13.75/14.65 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is still bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.65 - 1.0 (bullish (!))
Average VWAPs: +62/-65 (bull/bear battle)

Up or Down? The Dow Transports are still undecided
April 16, 2015

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2100/2111
DTX 867.6/873.6
DJIA 18065/18175
Nasdaq 4996/5018
RUT 1271/1276
VIX 12.35/13.35 (falling VIX is bullish ∓ VIX under 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 0.75 - 1.3 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +84/-45 (moderately bullish)

Russia & Oil on the comeback trail?
April 15, 2015

Market Analysis: While the small-cap Russell 2000 had no problem reaching another all-time high, the market-leading Dow Transports are having trouble going anywhere. Unless the index begins chugging in the uphill direction, this could be a sign that we're close to a market top. Another sign is the fact that VIX volatility is again edging into contrarian levels.

Major breakouts in key areas today:
- Oil & Gas producers & driller etfs: IEO, XOP, PXJ, OIH. In individual names, the following stocks made especially compelling moves: COSWF, ERF, AREX, EPE, HES, CEO, EQT, APC, CLR. I will be taking a long position in this space on a rally continuation.
- Russia-centric etfs: RUSL (3x Bull Russia, +14% today!), Russia Large-cap RSX, Russia Small-cap RSXJ, and two Emerging Europe funds GUR & ESR. The rise in Russian stocks could be due in part to today's advance in oil, so should oil fall, Russia could follow. If the rally in Russia (and oil) continue, the RUSL is clear to sail to the $45-$50 level--about 20%-35% above today's closing price. One notable mover in the Russian oil and gas space is Gazprom (OGZPY, $6.03). The stock jumped 7% to break above major support on heavier than normal volume.
- While it's still a bit early to call a break-out in gold and silver metals, the mining etfs (GDX, GDXJ, XME) are within a millimeter of pushing above resistance. Today's rally in the metals combined with the rally in oil was enough to relieve the pressure on resource-rich Canada, pushing both its country fund, EWC, and its currency fund, FXC, above resistance.

Russell 2000 pops to all-time high; Oil/metals/Europe advance
April 15, 2015

1:35 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2098/2112
DTX 868/878.5
DJIA 18045/18155
Nasdaq 4989/5016
RUT 1268.8/1277.2
VIX 12.7/13.6 (falling VIX is bullish & VIX under 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.15 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +119/-51 (bullish)

Market range-bound on mixed economic data
April 14, 2015

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2083.25/2098.75
DTX 858.5/872.5
DJIA 17905/18075
Nasdaq 4952/4998
RUT 1258.5/1269
VIX 13.45/14.75 (VIX under 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.1 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +73/-50 (bull/bear seesaw)

Smaller biotechs still got game
April 13, 2015

Today's turnaround in the market wasn't a big surprise considering that VIX volatility hit contrarian levels on Friday's close. (The VIX short-term volatility index, VXST, dropped below 10--an indication that a market reversal is imminent.) The topping tails in the daily charts of all of the major averages are also strong signs that selling pressure will likely continue. Funds are flowing out of the higher priced biotechs (AMGN, BIIB, CELG, REGN). This action is reflected in the topping tails seen in the candlestick charts of the Biotech etfs (BIB, BBH, IBB) indicating that distribution will likely continue. Other areas where investors are booking profits are aerospace (BA, LMT, NOC) and transports (ALK, FDX, CP, CNI, UNP, CSX). On the international front, Chinese issues are starting to flag which is to be expected after their recent monster rally.

While some of the larger biotechs sagged, there were a number of smaller issues making bullish moves:
1. Aerie Pharma (AERI, $34.97) broke above major resistance at $32 to hit a new high on twice normal volume. There was no news to account for today's move but there was unusual call action in the options on March 31st. The company is currently in clinical trials for its glaucoma eye drops and perhaps recent action in the call options is an indication that some folks in the know are expecting good results.
2. Hospitalist provider IPC Healthcare (IPCM, $50.84) popped out of a one year channeling pattern (between $40 and $50) on slightly heavier than normal volume. The company has recently made three acquisitions in the past several months which is bound to affect the company's top and bottom lines. (Next earnings report scheduled for 4/22 after the close.)
3. The stock of K2M Group (KTWO, $24.11), a maker of devices to treat spinal conditions, has been trading for nearly a year and today it broke out to hit an all-time high on no apparent news. The company has beaten estimates for the past three earnings report. It jumped nearly 7% following its last report and won't be reporting until 6/3. Only 11% of the float is held by insiders and institutions leaving plenty of stock for further accumulation.
4. Merrimack Pharma (MACK, $12.88) makes drugs to treat pancreatic and breast cancers. Today the stock surged out of a two month consolidation pattern following vigorous call activity in Friday's options market. Again, it appears as if someone is making a big bullish bet.

VIX volatility rising as selling pressure intensifies
April 13, 2015

1:30 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2096.7/2107.7
DTX 873/881
DJIA 18000/18110
Nasdaq 4991/5024
RUT 1264.75/1271.75
VIX 12.7/14.1 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.75 - 1.1 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +33/-101 (bearish)

Profit-taking in Chinese stocks/VIX volatility nearing complacency levels
April 10, 2015

2:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2091.5/2103.5
DTX 871/879
DJIA 17945/18075
Nasdaq 4970/5004
RUT 1262.3/1266.7
VIX 12.65/13.25 (VIX under 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 0.65 - 0.95 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +109/-72 (stock rotation)

Bulls need some Red Bull to stay in the game
April 9, 2015

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2074/2089
DTX 862.7/871.3
DJIA 17823/17977
Nasdaq 4928/4977
RUT 1248/1267
VIX 13.6/14.6 (VIX under 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 0.6 - 1.2 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +68/-71 (bull/bear seesaw)

Jump in Chinese stocks keeping market afloat
April 8, 2015


What you're looking at is end of day gains on selected Chinese stocks and etfs. (The YINN is a 3x bull fund.). There were many stocks to select from, but these are the ones that were the most compelling. In the Unusual; column, that's the amount of volume above the average daily volume. Obviously, something is up.













1:45 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2074/2087
DTX 859.5/863.5
DJIA 17845/17975
Nasdaq 4914/4956
RUT 1254.4/1263.6
VIX 13.8/14.8 (VIX under 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.1 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +76/-47 (bulls have the edge at the moment)

Twitter shares rise on take-over rumors
April 7, 2015

Although the bulls were barely able to push the Dow Transport Index (DTX) back above support, they didn't have enough steam to keep the other major averages from closing in the red. In fact, the topping tails in the charts of the other major averages indicate that buying pressure has dried up for the time being. The end-of-day rise in the Trin and the VIX combined with a big increase in the negative VWAPS are all signs that the bears are stepping in. Don't be surprised if tomorrow's open is a gap to the downside.

In commodities, oil has been picking up steam but the momentum may be on the verge of stalling as weakness was seen today in the oil servicers and producers (XES, XOP). Both gold and silver have been on the verge of breaking above resistance but that, too, may have to wait as both the metal etfs (GLD, IAU, SLV) as well as the miner etfs (GDX, GDXJ) all reversed to the downside. I've been burned by gold before and I'd be extra cautious about jumping in until I see a clear sign of conviction (in either direction), and so far, we don't have one. In the soft commodity space, the Cotton etf (BAL) has been rising from a four and a half year bottom that it put in mid-January. Today, it broke above near-term resistance at $45. The next test for the stock will be at major resistance at $46, and should it manage to clear that, it could be ontrack to retest its next major resistance level at $60.

Going global, China continues to soar. Among individual issues trading on US exchanges, the following have been in bullish trends and are at new highs: AIA Group (AAIGF, $6.55), China Southern Air (ZNH, $43.13), Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (IDCBY, $15.45), and micro-cap Bank of China (BACHF, $0.62). China Southern Air (ZNH) has risen very far very fast so I would urge caution in entering the long side of this trade (take a smaller position and use tighter stops).

On the M&A rumor mill: Twitter (TWTR, $52.87) has been trending up for the past two months. Today it rallied 4% on twice normal volume on rising rumors that it's on the short list of take-over candidates (although at a $40B valuation it's going to take someone with very deep pockets to pick up this puppy). Google, anyone?

Bulls push Dow Transports back above support--but for how long?
April 7, 2015

1:40 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2080.5/2091.5
DTX 857/867
DJIA 17885/18005
Nasdaq 4917/4953
RUT 1239.5/1263.5
VIX 13.95/14.75 (VIX under 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 0.6 - 1.0 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +58/-64 (bull/bear seesaw)

Divergence: Dow Transports break support as other major averages rally
April 6, 2015

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2056.5/2094.5
DTX 852.75/864.75
DJIA 17645/18005
Nasdaq 4853/4957
RUT 1249.4/1268.2
VIX 13.65/15.75 (falling VIX is bullish and VIX under 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 0.55 - 1.0 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +113/-41 (bullish)

Will the sinking Dow Transports nudge the other averages into the red?
April 2, 2015

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2059.3/2073.7
DTX 862/870
DJIA 17675/17825
Nasdaq 4873/4902
RUT 1251.8/1261.2
VIX 14.1/15.8 (falling VIX is bullish and VIX under 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 0.6 - 1.0 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +70/-71 (stock rotation continuing)

Dow Transports fall on airline weakness to test major support
April 1, 2015

1:45 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2048.4/2067.6
DTX 862.3/873.7
DJIA 17570/17780
Nasdaq 4841/4899
RUT 1238.6/1251.4
VIX 15.15/16.65 (rising VIX is bearish and VIX over 15 is bearish)
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.15 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +79/-58 (stock rotation continuing)

Rotation out of biotech/healthcare/REITs & into Energy/Industrials
March 31, 2015

2:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2073/2084
DTX 870.5/878.5
DJIA 17835/17965
Nasdaq 4916/4941
RUT 1249/1235.5
VIX 14.3/15.1 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is overall bullish)
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.15 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +72/-69 (stock rotation)

Market quiet after a stormy week
March 27, 2015

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2053/2064
DTX 866.2/871.4
DJIA 17630/17740
Nasdaq 4860/4890
RUT 1229.4/1239.6
VIX 15.15/15.85 (VIX over 15 is bearish)
Trin range: 1.1 - 1.5 (bearish to contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +82/-40 (bulls with the edge)

Bulls fight back, but is a one day rally sustainable?
March 26, 2015

1:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2045.5/2067.5
DTX 861/872.5
DJIA 17580/17810
Nasdaq 4826/4894
RUT 1225.5/1234.5
VIX 14.8/17.2 (falling VIX is bullish but VIX over 15 is still bearish)
Trin range: 0.6 - 1.1 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +137/-48 (very bullish)

Bears seize control
March 25, 2015

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2067.5/2097.5
DTX 878.4/891.6
DJIA 17700/18040
Nasdaq 4897/5007
RUT 1237/1266
VIX 13.2/15.6 (rising VIX is bearish & VIX over 15 is bearish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.05 (falling Trin is bullish (!))
Average VWAPs: +45/-190 (extremely bearish)

Bears gaining traction
March 24, 2015

Intraday notes (1:50pm ET): The double topping tails appearing in yesterday's candlestick charts of the S&P (SPX) and the Dow (DJIA) indicated that buying pressure had dried up. It's no surprise, then, to the market sell-off today. In fact, intraday levels suggest further weakening before the close. The only index not expected to drop below today's intraday low is the small-cap Russell 2000 (RUT). As long as the VIX remains below 15, the market is under the control of the bears but if it crosses that mark, watch out!

1:35 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2090.4/2107.6
DTX 899.5/896.5
DJIA 18030/18150
Nasdaq 4997.5/5032.5
RUT 1262.5/1268
VIX 12.6/13.6 (VIX under 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.3 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +40/-115 (bearish)

Russell 2000 springs to an all-time high
March 20, 2015

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2090.3/2114.7
DTX 912.3/918.3
DJIA 17960/18205
Nasdaq 5020/5044
RUT 1259.7/1267.5
VIX 12.45/13.55 (falling VIX is bullish & VIX under 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 0.6 - 0.85 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +90/-71 (strong rotation out of biotechs)

Market digesting yesterday's big gains
March 19, 2015

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2081.3/2098.7
DTX 905.5/916.5
DJIA 17905/18075
Nasdaq 4976/4999
RUT 1247.7/1253.7
VIX 14/15 (falling VIX is bullish and VIX under 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 1.1 - 1.5 (bearish)
Average VWAPs: +87/-57 (mildly bullish)

Yay for Yellen!
March 18, 2015

Today the Fed dropped the word patient in regards to raising interest rates and instead of bumming out the market, the major averages screamed to the upside. What this indicates is that Wall Street was expecting the move but what they didn't expect was the change in the Fed's criteria for a rate hike. Yellen & Co made it clear that unemployment needs to drop even further (it's already at their target rate) and that GDP growth needs to amp up. Perhaps the rising dollar is forcing them to revise their stance..?

All of the major averages notched significant gains with the Russell 2000 (RUT) advancing to another all-time high. The VIX, which has been staying stubbornly high, finally dropped back below 15 putting it officially back in bullish territory--for now.

Nearly every sector closed the day in the green--an impressive move, to say the least. Even recent laggards rose: bonds, oil, precious metals (especially the gold miners), and agricultural commodities (aka softs ). Virtually the only losers were the banks (which will have to wait longer to benefit from rising interest rates) and, more importantly, the US dollar. The long dollar etf (UUP) gave up nearly 2%--its largest percentage move in, well, a very long time. The stock is currently testing $25.75 resistance and a fall below that would indicate further downside to at least the $25.50 level. You might want to consider booking that European vacay now!

Today's bullish flow: There was heavy rotation out of the bear oil and precious metal funds and back into the larger tech names (PCLN, AMZN, GOOGL). Inflows were also seen in the usual suspects: healthcare, pharma, biotech, insurance, and select tech-based small-caps. Money is also flowing into foreign stocks, especially Japanese ones. Hitting new highs today were the following Japanese companies with stock trading on US exchanges: Sony (SNE, $28.11), Canon (CAJ, $34.31), Tokio Marine (TKOMY, $38.28), and Secom (SOMLY, $16.28). Share prices moved up over 2% (Sony shot up over 5%) and the latter three (CAJ, TKOMY, SOMLY) broke above major resistance levels. All of these companies sport relatively low P/E's (Secom's is the highest at 22) and all should continue to do well in a falling Yen environment. If you want to play a broad basket of Japanese stocks, the EWJ ($12.76) is one way to go. The stock recently broke out of a two year channeling pattern to hit a multi-year high. Based on technicals, the stock can easily make a run to the $13.50-$13.75 area. This etf has very liquid options, FYI.

Also getting some love were two Swiss banks: Credit Suisse (CS, $25.48) and Julius Baer (JBAXY, $9.62). Credit Suisse moved over $25 resistance while Julius Baer pushed out of a 13 month base. Both stocks appear to be in rally mode and could continue moving higher as long as the euro moves up against the dollar.

Market slumping pre-Fed announcement
March 18, 2015

1:45 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2057/2073
DTX 896.3/907.7
DJIA 17655/17845
Nasdaq 4902/4933
RUT 1236/1242
VIX 13.7/17.5 (VIX over 15 is bearish)
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.15 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +54/-106 (bearish)

Market muted in front of tomorrow's Fed announcement
March 17, 2015

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2065/2080.5
DTX 906.2/910.8
DJIA 17785/17975
Nasdaq 4907/4931
RUT 1234.5/1239
VIX 15.75/16.4 (rising VIX is bearish and VIX over 15 is bearish)
Trin range: 0.7 - 1.15 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +79/-40 (mildly bullish)

Market marches high but volatility refuses to drop
March 16, 2015

Intraday Notes (2:15pm ET): The bulls are already celebrating St. Paddy's Day but is the foam on their green beer about to fizzle? While all of the major averages roared out of the gate this morning, the VIX remained uncharacteristically quiet. Sure, it dropped a little but not as much as one typically sees on such bullish days. Perhaps Wall Street is bit jittery about the FOMC meeting this Wednesday with the burning question being this: Will they or won't they indicate if and/or when they will be raising interest rates?

Some of today's notable broad-based highlights/lowlights:
1. Two Oil funds, OIL & USO, both slid to all-time, post-2006 inception lows. Could this be the start of the next leg down in the price of oil?
2. Biotech & Healthcare continue to climb. Exchange traded funds hitting fresh highs today: Biotechs (BBH, FBT, IBB, XBI), Healthcare (IHI, XLV, IXJ).
3. Other notable sector/industry group highs: Retail (RTH), Broker/Dealers (IAI).
4. On the global front, Japan (EWJ) & Chinese Small-caps (CAF) breaking to new highs. The CAF is the most technically interesting, having popped out of a three and a half month consolidation pattern on more than twice normal volume.

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2055/2076
DTX 896.25/909.75
DJIA 17750/17965
Nasdaq 4889/4927
RUT 1235.5/1241.5
VIX 15.4/15.9 (falling VIX is bullish but VIX over 15 is bearish)
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.3 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +91/-48 (bullish)

Friday the 13th living up to its name
March 13, 2015

1:35 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2038/2064.5
DTX 888.5/903.5
DJIA 17580/17890
Nasdaq 4833.5/4904.5
RUT 1219.25/1236.75
VIX 15.3/16.9 (rising VIX is bearish and VIX over 15 is bearish)
Trin range: 1.15 - 1.45 (bearish)
Average VWAPs: +63/-89 (elevated VWAPs on both sides indicate sector rotation still continuing)

Major averages rise on yesterday's rally in the Transports
March 12, 2015

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2044/2065
DTX 890.3/900.9
DJIA 17620/17880
Nasdaq 4853/4887
RUT 1221.25/1233.75
VIX 15.45/16.45 (falling VIX is bullish but VIX over 15 is still bearish)
Trin range: 1.2 - 1.6 (bearish)
Average VWAPs: +84/-58 (bullish bias but bears still very much in the picture)

Hang on for dear life!
March 10, 2015

Yes, we've been in a bull market for too many years but there is one reason for short-term bulls not to give up hope.

The short-term reason is that the Trin has been heading higher into contrarian territory. Perhaps, even tomorrow on the open, we'll see the market move higher. But it's going no where fast.

That's the short term solution. It the market does move up, this might be a really good time to exit your long positions.



Support levels failing
March 10, 2015

1:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2048/2076
DTX 877.75/891.25
DJIA 17685/17990
Nasdaq 4863.5/4903.5
RUT 1205/1214
VIX 16/16.9 (rising VIX is bearish and VIX over 15 is bearish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.7 (bearish to contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +85/-71 (elevated numbers on both sides indicate rotation)

Market regrouping after Friday's smack-down
March 9, 2015

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2072.25/2084.5
DTX 890.7/894.5
DJIA 17855/18045
Nasdaq 4920.8/4952.8
RUT 1218.75/1223.25
VIX 14.65/15.75 (falling VIX is bullish but VIX over 15 is bearish)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.7 (bearish to contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +92/-53 (bullish but bears are sticking around)

Good jobs report sinks stocks & bonds/boosts the greenback
March 6, 2015

1:40 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2068/2101
DTX 888/900.5
DJIA 17795/18135
Nasdaq 4927/4983
RUT 1218/1231
VIX 14.2/16 (rising VIX is bearish and VIX over 15 is bearish)
Trin range: 0.75 - 1.0 (falling Trin is bullish (!) but a lower Trin gives the bears more room to run)
Average VWAPs: +39/-146 (very bearish)

Major averages clinging to support levels
March 5, 2015

1:35 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2095.25/2104.75
DTX 896/903
DJIA 18090/18160
Nasdaq 4963/4993.5
RUT 1229/1236
VIX 13.85/14.6 (VIX under 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 1.0 - 1.35 (neutral to bearish)
Average VWAPs: +58/-70 (elevated buying & selling pressure indicate sector rotation)

The Sound of Money
March 4, 2015

Intraday notes (2:30pm ET): There's some rotation going on under the surface of the market today. Strong selling pressure is been seen in the inverse (bear) oil funds (DWTI, DTO, SCO) and auto parts retailers (ABG, AAP, ORLY) while buying pressure is evident in big internet names (GOOG, GOOGL, BABA (staging a big rebound on the heels of yesterday's break-down)), semiconductors (AMBA, AVGO, SOXL), and the darlings du jour, biotech & pharma (ICPT, PCYC, OCUL, IBB, BIB, ATRA).

The bulls are trying to maintain control and need the major averages to close above recent support levels and the VIX to stay below the bull/bear dividing line of 15. The status of the market at today's closing bell may well determine the direction of the market, at least in the short term. Here are the support levels to watch:
SPX 2100
DTX 900 (9000 on most charts--my charting service divides this number by 10 for some reason)
DJIA 18000

Action in the currency market: Today, the Euro Currency etf (FXE) gapped under $110 support to hit a new all-time low (since December, 2005 inception). Making a run in the opposite direction was the Long US Dollar etf (UUP) which popped above $25.25 resistance to close at a five year high. Time to plan that European vacation!

Volatility picking up as bulls try to keep major averages above support levels
March 4, 2015

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2087.5/2108.5
DTX 896.3/906.1
DJIA 18020/18205
Nasdaq 4939/4983
RUT 1224.5/1235.5
VIX 13.85/15.35 (rising VIX is bearish and VIX over 15 is bearish)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.35 (bearish)
Average VWAPs: +101/-60 (buying pressure picking up)

Market consolidating recent gains
March 3, 2015

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2098.25/2115.75
DTX 900.75/910.25
DJIA 18140/18280
Nasdaq 4953/4997
RUT 1230.5/1239
VIX 13.25/14.25 (rising VIX is bearish but VIX under 15 is bullish overall)
Trin range: 0.6 - 0.95 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +68/-80 (bull/bear battle)

March roars in like a lion but will it go out like a lamb?
March 2, 2015

The Nasdaq finally managed to close above the 5000 mark and is only 40 points away from its all-time closing high of 5048.62 reached on 3/10/00--nearly fifteen years ago to the very day. Apart from the Dow Transports, all of the other major averages advanced to new all-time highs while the VIX slid just below 13. As long as the VIX can remain above 12 there's still room for the major averages to advance, so the Nasdaq could easily close above its previous high on or even before March 10th.

While fair weather still prevails, there are a couple of dark clouds forming. The first is the fact that economic numbers are turning bearish: forward earnings estimates are falling and economic growth factors are declining. (Please read this article for more on this story.) The other is that most stocks are not only trading well above their moving averages but well above the historical P/E of the market. Sure, the market can stay elevated for a while but reversion to the mean will happen sooner or later.

Stats for the month of February:
SPX +5.5%
DTX +4.3%
DJIA +5.6%
Nasdaq +7.1% (a lot of that move was due to the 9.6% gain in Apple (AAPL) which is a major component of the index)
RUT +5.8%

While being long any of the indices would have been a nice investment, going short the VIX would have been an even better one. During February, the VIX shed 36% of its value. One way to play that would have been to go long the XIV, the inverse VIX exchange traded vehicle. This fund rallied 31% in that time. Woulda shoulda coulda. Sigh. Good thing there's always a next time...

Will the Nasdaq close the day over 5000?
March 2, 2015

1:40 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2104.5/2115
DTX 902.25/911.75
DJIA 18120/18300
Nasdaq 4972/5003
RUT 1232.7/1244.3
VIX 13.1/13.9 (falling VIX is bullish and VIX under 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.3 (Trin falling intraday is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +84/-65 (bull/bear battle)

S&P 500 ending the month up 4.5%
February 27, 2015

1:25 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2106/2114
DTX 905.7/910.5
DJIA 18160/18215
Nasdaq 4972.5/4989.5
RUT 1235.75/1239.75
VIX 13.3/14.2 (VIX under 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.25 (neutral to bearish)
Average VWAPs: +49/-96 (bearish)

Bears gaining momentum
February 26, 2015

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2106/2115.5
DTX 905.5/914.5
DJIA 18180/18250
Nasdaq 4955.5/4989.5
RUT 1231.7/1240.3
VIX 13.3/14.3 (VIX under 15 is bullish)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.4 (neutral to bearish)
Average VWAPs: +75/-84 (bull/bear battle)

Volatility eases on Fed's non-action
February 24, 2015

1:35 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2106/2117
DTX 909.3/916.3
DJIA 18100/18220
Nasdaq 4945/4975
RUT 1228.75/1236.5
VIX 13.7/14.6 (falling VIX is bullish)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.2 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +64/-68 (bull/bear standoff)

A bumpy road for biotechs?
February 23, 2015

All's quiet on the market front as Wall Street awaits Fed Chair Janet Yellen's testimony before Congress tomorrow and Wednesday. Today saw minor gains in most of the major averages with biotechs and healthcare stocks making the biggest moves. Biotech has been on a roll since the middle of last April with the biotech etfs FBT, XBI, IBB, and BBH gaining more than 60% since then.

The question now is whether the biotechs will continue to run. Judging from today's topping tails in the daily candlestick charts of the above etfs, it appears as if they may be on the verge of taking a well deserved break. (A topping tail is an indication that buying pressure is drying up.) All of the above etfs are trading well above their moving averages and while a stock can do so for a while, it eventually reverts back to the mean.

One way to play a sell-off in biotechs is to buy puts on the above etfs. Of the bunch, the XBI has the most liquid options. The March 330 put has the highest open interest at over 2k contracts and last traded for $3.30. Another way to play it is to buy the double inverse biotech etf, BIS. This fund is down 65% since the beginning of the biotech rally last April which pretty much mirrors the rise in the biotechs. Today it formed a bottoming tail, the reverse of the topping tails seen in the biotech etfs. This gives some confirmation to the thesis that this space is in for a fall. If you're not familiar with inverse leveraged funds, you should note that they are designed to mirror their counterparts on a daily basis only. As such, long-term investors would do best to avoid them.

Market quiet before Yellen/Congress grill-fest tomorrow
February 23, 2015

1:40 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2103/2110.5
DTX 910.6/916.2
DJIA 18050/18140
Nasdaq 4939.5/4959.5
RUT 1222.5/1234.5
VIX 14.5/15.5 (falling VIX is bullish)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.45 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +79/-61 (bull/bear standoff)

Major averages looking to end the week in the green
February 20, 2015

1:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2085.5/2103.5
DTX 899.5/911.5
DJIA 17880/18070
Nasdaq 4905/4942
RUT 1212/1237
VIX 15/16.3 (falling VIX is bullish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.2 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +113/-35 (bullish)

Aerospace flying/Real-estate sliding
February 19, 2015

Apart from the rebalancing of funds from Risk-On (bonds, utes) to Risk-Off (small-caps, tech) mode, there's not too much to write about. Investors and traders looking to spark their portfolios may wish to consider the following long and short ideas:

On the bullish side: The Aerospace industry has been on fire and today saw many issues notch new highs: Boeing (BA, $154), Lockheed-Martin (LMT, $202), Northrup-Grumman (NOC, $170), Huntington-Ingalls (HII, $133), Hexcel (HXL, $47), L-3 (LLL, $131), Spirit Aerosystems (SPR, $51). While most of these have seen significant gains in the past couple of months, they are still not over-valued with all of them trading at P/E multiples under 21 (most in the 16-20 range). Out of the above group, Lockheed-Martin sports the most bullish chart having just broken out of a two month double-bottomed base on heavier than normal volume.

On the bear side: The threat of rising interest rates has halted the ascent in real-estate investment trusts (REITs). One of the most popular REIT exchange-traded funds, Vanguard's REIT etf (VNQ), has been falling from its all-time high put in on January 28th. Today, the stock fell through its second support level at $84 on heavier than normal volume. The next level of support is around $80 which is about 4.5% below today's close. Those of you in this space should tighten up your stops/book profits/protect your position.

For those of you with an appetite for risk, you may wish to consider buying the inverse (bearish) REIT exchange traded vehicles:
SRS is the 2x short REIT fund (SRS, $11.86)
DRV is the 3x short REIT fund (DRV, $22.93)

Bulls trying to take control
February 19, 2015

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2090.75/2104.75
DTX 907/917
DJIA 17925/18055
Nasdaq 4900/4934
RUT 1223/1233
VIX 14.83/16.22 (falling VIX is bullish)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.65 (bearish contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +104/-68 (bullish but bears still in the picture)

Market quiet before 2pm ET release of FOMC minutes
February 18, 2015

1:45 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2092/2099
DTX 902/909
DJIA 17982/18046
Nasdaq 4885.5/4904.5
RUT 1220/1227
VIX 15.85/16.75 (rising VIX is bearish)
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.15 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +64/-58 (bull/bear standoff)

Oil gains as bonds slump
February 17, 2015

The S&P 500 managed to barely close above the 2100 level, marking a new all-time high for this index. The small-cap Russell 2000 also ended the day at an all-time high while the Nasdaq notched a post 2000 high. Supporting the recent bull run are the Homebuilders (XHB), Materials (XLB), Tech (XLK), and Retail (XRT, RTH) sectors which all put in new highs in the past two days.

That's the good news.

On the flip side, today's small rally was accomplished on a jump in volatility. The VIX moved back over 15, the bull/bear dividing line. Also, the Dow Transports--considered to be a leader in market direction--has been lagging the other major averages. These two divergences could be a signal that the bulls are starting to run out of steam.

Today's notable highlights: Oil beginning to flow?
Two Oil & Gas Explorer etfs bested resistance levels in recent days. Both the IEO and the PXE staged island reversals on Friday which is a very bullish sign. Although some pundits are predicting a further drop in oil, the charts are telling a different story. A recent Zack's article said that the slew of capital spending cuts by several major players in the industry will likely curb oil production and reduce global supply glut in the coming months, and thereby lead to higher oil prices. Now may be the time to begin building a position in the oil producers/explorers.

Today's notable lowlights: Bonds continue to break down
Treasuries, investment grade corporate, and muni bonds continue to slide with today seeing many representative exchange traded funds breaking secondary support levels (TLO, TLT, TLH). This is a bearish indication and may be a reflection of a pick-up in the sentiment that a growing economy will force the Fed to begin raising interest rates sooner than expected (some feel it could be as early as June).

One way to play the downside is to buy inverse bond etfs. Representing long-term Treasuries (20+ years) is the 1x inverse fund, the TBF, and the 3x inverse fund, the TMV. Representing a shorter time horizon (7-10 years) is the 1x inverse Treasury fund, the TBX. Please note that these inverse funds are designed to track one-day moves and are NOT representative of directional moves over the long term, so please exercise caution when trading them and know your risk level. If you're uncomfortable playing the short side, staying in cash on the sidelines is best the way to play bonds for now.

Will the S&P 500 close over 2100?
February 17, 2015

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2090/2102
DTX 901.25/907.25
DJIA 17950/18070
Nasdaq 4880.5/4905.5
RUT 1221/1228
VIX 15.25/16.35 (VIX moving back over 15 is mildly bearish)
Trin range: 0.6 - 1.2 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +102/-54 (bullish)

***The Stock Market Cook Book is on vacation this week. We will be back next Monday, February 16th. Have a wonderful Valentine's Day!****
February 9, 2015

Good jobs numbers buffer a Greek downgrade
February 6, 2015

2:25 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2057.6/2072.4
DTX 892/901
DJIA 17820/17950
Nasdaq 4748/4787
RUT 1204/1215
VIX 16.05/18.15 (VIX over 15 is still bearish overall)
Trin range: 0.7 - 1.0 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +57/-110 (bearish)

Consumer discretionary (XLY) hits new high pushed by jump in specialty retailers
February 5, 2015

Market Notes (1:35pm ET): Intraday levels are suggesting that market is essentially rangebound with a bias towards the downside for the rest of the day. The good news is that the consumer discretionary sector etf, the XLY, pushed above its previous high put in at the end of December. The move was helped by jumps in specialty retailers, most notably Stein Mart (SMRT, +12%), Boot Barn (BOOT, +8%), O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY, +8%), Kirkland (KIRK, +7%), and L Brands (LB, +6%). All of these stocks broke through recent resistance to hit new highs on heavier than average volume. If you're shopping for retailing, these companies would be a good place to begin your research.






1:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2042/2060
DTX 888/897
DJIA 17670/17850
Nasdaq 4718/4752
RUT 1193.5/1204
VIX 16.65/17.55 (falling VIX is bullish but VIX over 15 is still bearish overall)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.0 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +76/-70 (bull/bear see-saw)

Oil drops as bulls take a break
February 4, 2015

2:05 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2039.3/2051.7
DTX 882/892
DJIA 17605/17775
Nasdaq 4698/4746
RUT 1189/1199
VIX 16.95/18.05 (falling VIX is bullish but VIX over 15 is still bearish overall)
Trin range: 0.75 - 1.1 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +107/-85 (bull/bear battle)

Bulls trying to take control/Oil continues to gush
February 3, 2015

1:40 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2022.75/2045.25
DTX 878.5/888
DJIA 17370/17680
Nasdaq 4671/4714
RUT 1180/1195
VIX 17.2/18.9 (falling VIX is bullish but VIX over 15 is bearish)
Trin range: 0.65 - 0.95 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +122/-52 (very bullish)

Oil heats up bolstering Canadian & Aussie $$
February 2, 2015

1:25 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1981/2014
DTX 858/880
DJIA 17035/17325
Nasdaq 4580.5/4667.5
RUT 1154/1174
VIX 19.2/21.8 (VIX over 20 is very bearish)
Trin range: 0.65 - 1.0 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +77/-79 (bull/bear battle)

January going out on a low note
January 30, 2015

Market Notes (1:35pm ET): The intraday support levels indicate that there's lots more room for the major averages to move towards the downside before the day ends. The VIX moving back over 20 certainly is not boding well for the bulls, either, but they've shown lately that they have the muscle to move the market up into the close. As this is the last trading day of the month, anything can happen as fund managers and investor move to reposition their portfolios. Today also marks the last day that the wash rule is in effect and Monday we could see buying in those issues that were dumped before the end of the year. I'm thinking that there could be a rebound in energy names next week and possibly in precious metal miners, too.

The bad news is that January is going out at a lower level than when it began. Historically, it's been shown that as January goes, so goes the rest of the year. Not that this scenario will necessarily pan out this year, but it's something long-term investors may wish to keep in mind.

Market Update (2:50pm ET): I just tweeted that out of the 65 stocks on today's New Yearly High List, 41 of those are muni bond funds. This is a huge sign of the continuing flight to safety. For the past couple of months, the most popular areas of investment have been in the safer, dividend-payers, mainly utilities (which have become richly valued), Treasuries and investment grade corporate bonds, REITs (also richly valued), and consumer staples. The rotation out of riskier assets (the high beta names) is reflected by the rise in market volatility.

1:25 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1995/2020
DTX 861/884
DJIA 17220/17420
Nasdaq 4636/4704
RUT 1168/1186
VIX 19.25/21.25 (VIX over 20 is very bearish & rising VIX is bearish)
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.2 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +66/-77 (bull/bear battle)

Bulls stage a mid-day charge
January 29, 2015

1:45 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1989/2018
DTX 872.6/885.4
DJIA 17135/17345
Nasdaq 4602/4668
RUT 1170/1182
VIX 19.05/21.55 (VIX over 15 is bearish & rising VIX is bearish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.6 (bearish contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +183/-45 (very bullish)

The Fed sinks stocks/buoys bonds
January 28, 2015

2:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2015.5/2042.5
DTX 885/900.25
DJIA 17315/17485
Nasdaq 4668/4742
RUT 1177/1201
VIX 16.9/18.7 (VIX over 15 is bearish & rising VIX is bearish)
Trin range: 0.95 - 1.45 (bearish)
Average VWAPs: +57/-90 (bearish but bulls still around)

Bulls trying to stay in control
January 27, 2015

1:15 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2020/2048
DTX 887.5/901.5
DJIA 17290/17640
Nasdaq 4660/4726
RUT 1186/1200
VIX 16.45/18.4 (VIX over 15 is bearish)
Trin range: 0.85 - 1.35 (bearish)
Average VWAPs: +123/-25 (bullish)

Things are heating up in the Land of the Rising Sun
January 26, 2015

Despite a spate of unsettling news--the big snowstorm slamming into the East Coast, Russia's credit downgrade to junk status, and the elections in Greece (and what it might mean for the fate of their presence in the EU), the bulls managed to stay in control of the market. Not only did all the major averages manage to close in the green, but even more surprising was that the VIX, a measure of fear and uncertainty, dropped nearly 7% to close just above the bull/bear dividing line at 15. Judging from the fact that up volume was more than twice down volume, it appears as if January could go out on the plus side.

There was a lot of action to the upside today. While biotech/pharma etfs (IBB, FBT, BBH, PJP) continue to soar, there's one area that's been rallying under the radar: Japanese stocks. The devaluation of the yen by the Japanese central bank has lit a fire under Japanese industry (which is what it was supposed to do). In particular, the stocks of Sony (SNE, $23.37) and Toyota (TM, $131.86) have been moving up and their charts over the past 6 months have been nearly the mirror image of the movement in the Yen (FXY). Today, both Sony and Toyota jumped over major resistance levels to hit new yearly highs on heavier than normal volume. Technically, Sony won't face another major challenge until the $34-$35 range (approximately 45% above today's closing price). However, Toyota is less than 5% from testing its all-time high of $138 reached in early 2007, but should it hurdle that, the sky's the limit. Both companies pay dividends: 2.2% yield for Toyota and 0.9% for Sony. There are options on both stocks as well.

Bulls taking control
January 26, 2015

1:50 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2041/2061
DTX 895.75/908.25
DJIA 17565/17730
Nasdaq 4734/4776
RUT 1181.75/1200.25
VIX 15.75/17.45 (falling VIX is bullish but VIX over 15 is still on the bears' side of the fence)
Trin range: 0.7 - 1.1 (falling Trin is bullish)
Average VWAPs: +130/-38 (bullish)

Bulls trying to close the week in the green
January 23, 2015

1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2053/2065
DTX 898/913
DJIA 17723/17823
Nasdaq 4738/4777
RUT 1185.5/1195.5
VIX 15.7/17.1 (falling VIX is bullish but VIX over 15 is still on the bears' side of the fence)
Trin range: 1.05 - 1.35 (rising Trin is bearish)
Average VWAPs: +105/-61 (bulls in control but bears still very much in the picture)

Dow Transports leading today's rally/S&P 500 makes a run at 2050
January 22, 2015

1:25 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2026/2057
DTX 890/913
DJIA 17485/17735
Nasdaq 4644.5/4725.5
RUT 1161.3/1187.7
VIX 16.25/19.25 (falling VIX is bullish but VIX over 15 is still on the bears' side of the fence)
Trin range: 0.95 - 1.25 (neutral to mildly bearish)
Average VWAPs: +101/-69 (bulls in control but bears still very much in the picture)

Bulls losing their grip
January 21, 2015

Intraday Notes (2:20pm ET): Today's pivot points are suggesting that the major averages have already found their intraday support and resistance levels, although the support level calculated for the Russell 2000 (RUT) is indicating that it has a little room left to move below the low put in just after the opening bell. Notable sector movements include an uptick in oil and gas producers and drillers (not sure if this is due to short-covering or is the start of a sector rebound), and a break out in two Emerging Market etfs VWO & EEM. In the currency market, the Swiss franc (FXF) is trying to find its footing. Trading in this exchange-traded note has been very volatile since the Swiss central bank decided to unpeg its value to the euro (FXE). Today's biggest currency loser is the Canadian Dollar (FXC). The stock has been tanking along with oil prices and today the loonie dropped by 2% to test $80. This was its biggest one day drop in years. Note that there's not much standing between it and its post-2006 fund inception low of $76.59 reached in early 2009. That's it for now.

2:10 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2012/2038
DTX 880/894
DJIA 17395/17600
Nasdaq 4629.5/4692.5
RUT 1163/1175
VIX 18.65/21.85 (VIX over 20 is very bearish)
Trin range: 0.6 - 1.1 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +49/-110 (bears gaining ground mid-day)

Gold regains its glitter
January 20, 2015

A couple of today's market highlights:

The drop in fuel prices is helping to boost airline and transportation stocks. Still at attractive valuations are Alaska Air (ALK, $65) and Int'l Consolidated Air (ICAGY, $39). Both of these broke out to new highs today. The volume on ICAGY was 14 times normal on no apparent news, but volume like this is a strong indication that somethin's up. Note that the average trading volume is only around 10k so if you're thinking of taking a long position in this ADR, please do consider using limit orders.

Precious metals continue to surge. Today, the Silver etf (SLV, $17.18) broke out of a four month base on slightly heavier than normal volume. The precious metals are gaining momentum and I do feel that one should have some exposure in this area. If you're unsure what to play, I would suggest a mix of gold miners (GDX or GDXJ), gold (GLD or IAU), and silver (SLV). Those with more tolerance for risk can play some of the triple-levered vehicles such as the Gold Miners Bull 3x (NUGT, $20.64) which also broke out of a base today to rally over 10%.

Bulls trying to extend Friday's rally
January 20, 2015

1:20 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1997.5/2029
DTX 872.7/886.3
DJIA 17265/17590
Nasdaq 4588/4662
RUT 1156/1179
VIX 19.8/21.9 (VIX over 20 is very bearish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.1 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +96/-64 (bullish but bears aren't backing down)

Bulls trying to end a bad week on a high note
January 16, 2015

Intraday Notes (1:50pm ET): The intraday levels are showing there's more room left to run to the upside. In the golden days of yore (i.e., pre-2015), the bulls had little problem advancing into the close but those days appear to be receding into the rear-view mirror. Today's rally may be due in part to traders closing out short positions ahead of the weekend. We'll get a better understanding of which camp is really in charge--the bulls or da' bears--as we head into the close.

1:45 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1988/2016.5
DTX 862/874
DJIA 17245/17455
Nasdaq 4563/4622
RUT 1151/1177
VIX 21.55/23.45 (VIX over 20 is very bearish)
Trin range: 0.7 - 1.6 (bull/bear battle)
Average VWAPs: +131/-38 (bullish, for now)

The Swiss put the EU on watch
January 15, 2015

Today's Notable Market Highlights:

1. The Swiss central bank made a surprise announcement that it would cut its currency's apron ties with the euro. The news sent the Swiss franc etn (FXF) to rise over 17%. This is a MONSTER move in the currency market. If you had bought into that fund at its recent low, you'll probably be invited to this year's economic summit in Davos because you'll be one of the few who will be able to afford it.

The question is now: Will the Swiss franc go higher? I have no idea but you should note that the stock jumped back to its previous high put in last February, and a move above that will likely send it higher.

On another not so happy note, this move by the Swiss is definitely not a sign of confidence as to the viability of the European Union (and hence, the euro (FXE)) going forward. I'm sure this will be a big topic of conversation that will be occupying the financial press for a while.

2. Oil retraced much of yesterday's gains (no big surprise) while gold made a nice move in the opposite direction. Both the major & junior gold miner etfs, the GDX and the GDXJ, gained 5%. The Gold metal etfs (GLD & IAU) broke recent resistance today and both appear to have completed an inverse head & shoulders pattern. Based on the position of the inverted heads, the technicals suggest a move to $13 for the IAU and to the $128-$130 range for the GLD.

3. Internet-based etfs, PNQI and FDN, both plunged below support levels. This reflects the overall bearish momentum in their major underlying components: Amazon (AMZN), Facebook (FB), Ebay (EBAY), Google (GOOG, GOOGL), and Priceline (PCLN). All of these stocks have been trending down for at least the past month. Amazon has been spiraling down for over a year and is close to retesting its October low at $284. A break below this level could easily send it down to major support at $250.

4. While long-term treasuries (TLT, TLO), muni bond funds, REITs, and consumer staple stocks continue to advance into the stratosphere, intermediate and shorter-term bond funds are starting to gain traction. Here's a list of some representative exchange-traded and mutual funds in this category (by symbol only): TLH, IEF, ITE, IEI, VFICX. The latter symbol, Vanguard fund (VFICX), has a 3% dividend yield that is notably higher than the others which fall in the 1-2% range.

5. Noting the bullish action mentioned above in consumer staples, we found three sector members breaking resistance to hit new highs: Dr Pepper/Snapple (DPS, $76), Kraft (KRFT, $66), and Altria (MO, $52). All of these pay dividends currently in the 2-4% range.

S&P and Russell 2000 testing support levels
January 15, 2015

Intraday Notes (1:10pm ET): News that the Swiss central bank decided to decouple the Swiss Franc from the euro combined with a fall in the producer price index added more fuel to the bears' fire. The intraday levels are showing that there's plenty more room left to run to the downside before the close. Currently, the S&P (SPX) and the small-cap Russell 2000 (RUT) are retesting support levels--2000 for the SPX and 1150 for the RUT. I just checked the moving averages (a lot of folks are guided by them but I think they're secondary compared with support/resistance levels) and all of the major averages listed below are testing their 100dma's. A drop beneath these levels would be a strong indication that more downside is in the cards.

1:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1983.5/2021.5
DTX 860.25/875.75
DJIA 17235/17520
Nasdaq 4556/4664
RUT 1151/1181
VIX 20.85/23.75 (rising VIX is bearish and VIX over 20 is very bearish)
Trin range: 0.6 - 1.2 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +49/-131 (bearish)

Bears stepping in to halt the bulls' early morning charge
January 13, 2015

Intraday Notes (1:40pm ET): While I was publishing the intraday levels, the major averages were busy slicing through their intraday lower bounds (as calculated from their pivot points). However, I don't know how much lower it can go (at least for today) as both the negative VWAPs and the Trin are in contrarian territory.

1:30 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2028/2057
DTX 876.5/895.5
DJIA 17645/17925
Nasdaq 4674/4751
RUT 1181.5/1200.5
VIX 17.65/20.5 (rising VIX is bearish and VIX over 20 is very bearish)
Trin range: 1.05 - 1.65 (bearish to contrarian
Average VWAPs: +30/-215 (extremely bearish to contrarian)

Oil drops as gold pops
January 12, 2015

1:25 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2021/2049
DTX 878/889
DJIA 17565/17795
Nasdaq 4634/4716
RUT 1173/1188
VIX 18/20.6 (rising VIX is bearish and VIX over 20 is very bearish)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.15 (neutral)
Average VWAPs: +56/-100 (bearish)

Better than expected jobs report fails to spark the market
January 9, 2015

1:35 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2037.5/2064.5
DTX 885/898
DJIA 17665/17915
Nasdaq 4680/4745
RUT 1183/1196
VIX 16.45/18.5 (VIX over 15 is overall bearish)
Trin range: 0.9 - 1.35 (bearish)
Average VWAPs: +84/-66 (bull/bear battle)

Bulls charge back as investors turn to riskier assets
January 8, 2015

2:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2030.5/2068.5
DTX 879/901
DJIA 17590/17900
Nasdaq 4688/4744
RUT 1184/1200
VIX 16.9/18.1 (falling VIX is bullish but VIX over 15 is overall bearish)
Trin range: 0.6 - 0.8 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +97/-61 (bullish but bears still hanging around)

Bulls get to party as the bears take a rest
January 7, 2015

3:00 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2005.5/2030.5
DTX 872.5/879.5
DJIA 17375/17625
Nasdaq 4614/4656
RUT 1165/1174
VIX 19/20.7 (falling VIX is bullish but VIX over 15 is overall bearish)
Trin range: 0.7 - 1.0 (bullish to neutral)
Average VWAPs: +108/-66 (bulls in control but bears still hanging in)

Bears on the warpath
January 6, 2015

1:40 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1989.75/2030.25
DTX 866/890
DJIA 17220/17580
Nasdaq 4563/4667
RUT 1146/1194
VIX 19.5/23.5 (VIX over 20 is extremely bearish)
Trin range: 0.7 - 1.15 (neutral to slightly bearish)
Average VWAPs: +32/-179 (very bearish)

Bears push major averages below support levels
January 5, 2015

The bears extended the sell-off that rang in the New Year by pushing the major averages well below recent support. Judging by the strength of today's sell-off, it's possible that we could see a retest of the next major support levels very soon. For the S&P 500 (SPX) that would be at 2000, only 20 points (1%) below today's close.

The Dow Industrials (DJIA) violated not just one but two minor support levels today and is currently resting on 17500. It appears likely that it will slip below that to retest its December low at 17060.

The Nasdaq broke 4700 and is well on its way to test major support at 4600. While the VIX did (somehow!) manage to close under 20, I don't think it's going to remain there for long. In spite of all these negative indications, the one minor ray of light is that the Trin is at contrarian levels meaning that we could see a relief rally tomorrow, but I'm not expecting it to last long.

Despite the fact that nearly every sector was trading in the red, there were a few bright spots--the US dollar (UUP), REITs, long-term treasuries (TLO, TLT), municipal bonds, and investment grade corporate bonds. This rotation strongly reflects a flight to quality and safety. Two market bell-whethers, the financials and technology (represented by the XLF and XLK exchange-traded funds), both broke support levels adding further downward pressure on the market. Oil (as represented by the exchange-traded vehicles OIL, DBO, and USO) continues to tank and the burning question right now is where will it find a bottom?

The only other areas that are finding some upside are precious metals and their miners (GLD, GDX). Many of today's biggest percent gainers were found among the junior gold miners (GDXJ). Today's rally caused one junior miner, Gold Fields (GFI), to jump over 7% to hit a new yearly high. The triple-levered long gold miner etf (NUGT) gained over 8% to close just above $13. From its chart, it appears as if it's making another run towards the $15 level which it tested a few weeks ago.

2:30 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2016.5/2054.5
DTX 884.75/908.25
DJIA 17440/17820
Nasdaq 4647/4703
RUT 1180.75/1194.25
VIX 19.2/21.8 (rising VIX is bearish and VIX over 20 is extremely bearish)
Trin range: 1.0 - 1.8 (extremely bearish; over 1.5 is contrarian)
Average VWAPs: +40/-155 (very bearish)

2015 kicking off to an inauspicious start
January 2, 2015

Market Notes (1:30 pm ET): The market opened on an upbeat note but the rally was short-lived as bears stepped in with a vengeance. In trying to calculate today's intraday support/resistance levels (shown below), I had a very tough time trying to believe that the pivot levels that are appearing in today's charts of the major averages could actually be real. For the sake of the bulls, I truly hope not. If they do prove to be the real deal, we could be in for a whole lot more hurt before the toll of the closing bell.

As of this writing, both the S&P 500 (SPX) and the Dow Industrials (DJIA) have both broken support levels (2050 & 17750 respectively) whlle the Dow Transports (DTX) and the Nasdaq are testing their support levels (900 & 4700 respectively). The volatility index (VIX) is making its second attempt this week to push above 20. A close above this level is an indication that more bearishness is in the cards--at least for the short-term.

What this all translates into is this: If you're holding long positions that have enjoyed a good run up, it's time to either sell or hedge them at the very least. Short-term traders with higher risk appetites may wish to consider buying put spreads on index tracking stocks or selling out-of-the-money call spreads.

1:20 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 2037.5/2072.5
DTX 892/906
DJIA 17710/17950
Nasdaq 4653/4777
RUT 1172/1213
VIX 17/20.5 (rising VIX is bearish and VIX over 15 is bearish)
Trin range: 0.8 - 1.4 (neutral to bearish)
Average VWAPs: +72/-130 (rotation of out riskier high beta stocks (GOOGL, TSLA) into hedging instruments (precious metals, oil))

Recent Articles
Fashion statement: Mixed markets ahead!
July 27, 2015 at 11:10 pm

emma-summerton-collection[1]There have been a few theories that expound a correlation between fashion and the stock market. For example, there’s a theory that the stock market rises along with hemlines, and while that may be true, I believe there are more telling features, such as:

Primary Factor: Color

Secondary Factor: Print

During up markets, colors tend to be bright, and prints tend to be diverse (think floral, small patterns, etc).

During down markets, colors tend to be muted (black/grey/white/brown), and prints are either non-existent or are blocked (in larger, geometric patterns).

What the fall 2015 couture collection is showing: Clashing prints in heavy tweeds that aren’t congruent with either a male or female form. Perhaps it’s a reflection of the rising LGBT culture.

This is a new wrinkle in the fabric of stock trading and as such, I’m not sure what it means. Perhaps the market doesn’t know, either.

Final Analysis: We’re in for a completely new paradigm. One way to be prepared for a bumpy ride is to book profits in “old” companies and sit in cash on the sidelines and wait for the newbies to appear.

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